42 Comments
 

I'm with a developer in Southern California. Haven't put out an LOI since last November. Will obviously peruse a deal if it makes sense, seems like sellers are still hung up on 2021 values. I think they'll come around in the next couple of months. 

 
MPBYO

When we send out an LOI we have already toured it, full UW, comps, talked to third parties (tax, insurance, debt, etc), and discussed at IC. You should be able to move on deals you like within 48hrs. 

I’m not calling you a liar, but I don’t see how this is possible to get all this done within 48 hours at 90% of firms. . Even if the underlings and peasants (aka analysts - aka myself at my old firms) pull all nighters, there’s usually a principal slacking. Slacking by either putting off meetings, delaying important decisions, making changes to underwriting assumptions and presentation materials last minute, etc. Maybe I worked for the wrong people who were already super rich and were way too conservative, but I’m sure many will echo my thoughts. However, I do know they won’t be going bust in the next downturn so I guess that’s something to hang your hat on.

 
Most Helpful

Few things. My firm is truly vertically integrated, so we have everything from in-house PM to construction. Secondly, we only focus on a few markets. Because of this, when brokers send us a deal there is a good chance, we: a) own an asset in the area, b) gone full cycle on an asset in the area, c) have used it as a comp before. This gives us actual data to pull upon to make decisions. We don't need some pointless IC memo or meeting where people with no idea what the fuck is going on try to justify why they are on payroll by arguing about Costar reports. 

 

Closed one in Q4 - VA industrial in a core market. Motivated seller so got the retrade needed to make the deal.

Have submitted several LOIs this year... Came close on a couple but market is just too sloshy rn.

With core funds and ODCE funds facing redemptions, pricing is under serious pressure. Opp / value funds are liquid because of the close ended aspect but long gone are the days when core accounts stretched for what we'd typically characterize as a value deal.

So what? Frozen market with a lot of stubborn sellers and unincentivized buyers.

Good time to sip drinks in the Caribbean IMO

 

Developer of core+ assets in Europe and we have placed a handful of bids but in general land is too expensive to hit our return hurdles. Lots of rejections, not sure how others are uw to hit their bids bc they look overpriced (or have low returns or have amazing financing or will go bust idk). Construction costs are coming down but rents aren't moving as far as we would hope despite low/no vacancy. Current strategy is try get land owner into a promote deal. Waiting for some distressed stuff but honestly we have not heard of much yet. Hoping for some Q3 activity. 

 

I'm working like crazy...blood in the water is opportunity! We're mainly office investors so lots of people are looking to quietly unload under distressed circumstances. Also preferred equity or mezz debt in newer office developments that can't refi and need capex to stabilize. On the MF side, there's distress as variable rate deals that traded at 4% caps move underwater as rent growth doesn't pan out like proformas thought. I've been churning out tons of UW in 2023. 

 

Multifamily acq - haven’t been sending out a ton of LOIs, we’ve mostly been working on the same handful of deals for the past 6-12 months. We’ve actually had a couple deals fall out of contract then went back under contract once we found equity (and with a significant price reduction), one of which just closed. Takes a realistic, motivated seller for sure.

 

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