Am I wrong to be worried about Trump's impact on the industry?

I'm going to copy and paste a comment I made two months ago in a different thread after he was elected:

I think net negative, but it's hard to really project out. The biggest obstacles I see to real estate development (my field) right now are: 1) zoning/local permitting, 2) construction costs, 3) interest rates, and 4) banking activity. 

First, zoning. Zoning is currently an exclusively local concern and unless something radically changes the federal government won't have any control over this. Trump's impact here will be very minimal, at most he'll issue carrots/sticks to try and sway jurisdictions in his direction, but even then it's very indirect. Also, his rhetoric has been very anti-upzoning (i.e. keep the suburbs SFH zoned, etc.), so this won't be a positive for developers. (For the sake of extreme clarity, I'm excluding any large-scale infrastructure development like energy, highways, transmission lines, etc. that require federal reviews/permits. I don't think anyone on this site does that work, but if they do feel free to correct me. He will probable make this type of work easier for sectors he approves of (e.g. fossil fuel infrastructure) and harder for ones he disapproves of (e.g. clean energy infrastructure).)

Second, construction costs. If he passes most of the tariffs he wants prices will undoubtedly increase, that's just basic logic. There are other arguments you can make about reducing competition which leads to declines in productivity growth and other tariff affects, but those aren't as direct as tariffs -> price increases. This is a negative for development. Also, within this are labor costs, and we all know where most of our construction labor comes from. Trump's overall antagonistic sentiment against both legal and illegal immigration will not help with the labor shortage in the trades, this will also increase costs and be negative for development. 

Third, interest rates. No one really knows where this is going, it's impossible to predict. The Fed will probably continue to cut until they reach the mid 3s or something drastic happens with the economy, but the long end of the curve is going up, probably because people feel Trump's agenda is inflationary. Construction pricing might be cheaper, perm debt might be more expensive, people might require higher yields for longer in real estate if the 10y stays high. If he increases the deficit significantly, requiring even more government financing, I can see rates staying higher for longer (outside of the Fed's control unless they institute helicopter money) due to the increasing weakness in treasury sales. Unsure exactly how Trump is going to affect this, could be negative, could be positive, too early to tell. 

Fourth, banking activity. Banks are starting to come back to the market as the Fed cuts since their loan books look better valuation-wise than they did 12 months ago. Office is still struggling but it's improving (anecdotally, my city just notched the highest % of in-office employees since 2019). I feel like the industry thinks we might be able to extend and pretend into a soft landing, and it might work. How much Trump will impact this is yet to be seen. Overall, I think this is a small positive for development.  

Some other things he may do that aren't directly related to real estate but could still impact us include lowering taxes, reducing federal regulation, and generally being pro-business. I think these are all positive-sentiment actions for real estate developers and investors, especially the taxes. After-tax returns would look better which could encourage people either to a) do more deals, or b) accept lower absolute returns because their net comes out to the same, both of which would stimulate work. It could also just make people greedier and not budge from current pricing. 

To me, the construction/labor costs and zoning/density are the biggest issues I'm having with underwriting. Trump will most likely negatively influence the first one and have negligible impact on the second, so I'm not holding my breath for any panacea from the last 3 years of development ails. 

Going line-by-line:

1. Looking at this I was already correct about him limiting clean energy infrastructure, I did not think that was going to be a day-one item, but here we are. The rest of the zoning stuff is still out of federal control.
2. Directionally, I think I am correct on the labor market as well. Trump did come all out in full force against illegal immigrants and anecdotally it's already had an impact even on people not targeted by ICE (i.e. undocumented people not showing up for work because they're scared, etc.). How much and where he applies tariffs is still yet to be seen. 
3. He's pushing hard for the Fed to cut rates fast, how much his pressure will count for is not yet apparent, but I'm not holding my breath. I think JPow sticks it out and manages to stick with his plan despite the pressure. 
4. His push for in-office for federal employees is definitely a positive for the sector and the ancillary businesses that support commercial real estate (specifically in DC but there are Federal buildings everywhere). If he does liquidate 2/3 of Federally owned buildings that'll be a massive negative for the field with so much supply coming on so fast, but I don't think he'll actually be able to go through with as much as he wants. Separately, bank lending still feels in limbo, I've seen some more construction/bridge lending appetite anecdotally, but the 10y is also back to elevated levels, which stifles trading. It's a toss-up here.

Regardless of all of that though, you have 2 years for the ship to right itself, don't worry about the job market too much. Having done a T20 MBA myself and graduated into summer 2020, I can tell you I think you'll be in a better position than I was haha. Keep your head down, pay attention to your coursework, network, have fun, live your MBA life (seriously, take advantage), and position yourself as best as your can for an internship (mostly by networking). The rest is out of your hands.