Best way to model anticipated cash flow shortfalls that occur later in the hold period
Say I'm underwriting a retail deal with a targeted 10 year hold. We expect to have levered net cash flow of $500k each year. Suppose in year 4 of the deal, the anchor decides to vacate and we're going to end up with a -$2m cash flow shortfall in year 4.
What's the best way to model a scenario like this?
Would I assume no CF distributions to investor in years 1-3 and put that cash into a reserve account ($500 * 3 = $1.5mill). Then, in Year 4, when the vacancy/operating shortfall occurs, just use that $1.5m in the reserve account to fund half of the -$2m shortfall, and then have an additional $0.5m capital call to fund the remainder? It seems like it would be bad idea to raise additional capital in the beginning because that would mess up the IRR.
I'm really not sure how to approach this so I'd appreciate any help.
Thanks in advance!
Not trying to be funny here, but I would simply not model the anchor tenant leaving not even halfway through the hold period, just like in a multifamily development, I would not model what happens if we only hit 50% occupancy during a lease up. The functional answer is always going to be “you better make sure this shit doesn’t happen because it is bad and if it does happen, you better have a solution in place.”
Lol you're right. I made those numbers up and it was probably a bit extreme. But would you deal with a more moderate shortfall?
Say you have an office tenant that will vacate some point down the line and you need to fund all of the leasing costs. Should you build a cash account in your acquisitions model that you fund through out the years? How does that show up on your model? You want to pay out the distributions as soon as you can so that investors hit a good irr, so idk if it's standard modeling practice to build up cash reserves for an inevitable turnover? Or do you just do a capital call whenever you have to release a space?
Each firm will do this differently. If it’s an institutional fund, you’re just going to call LP capital. You’re probably not going to model a reserve. If you’re raising from HNW investors, you’ll probably underwrite a reserve unless you know you can call capital in the future.
Typically no shortfall reserve. You'd call at the time of shortfall. Better for IRR.
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