How to leave if you have carry

I think I am getting stuck in a golden handcuff situation, I work at a pretty small firm Salary is slightly below market (along with no raise in 2023) but was given Carry across the firm that would basically be a 100% bonus. We are active but carry gets scary in these downturns, because it all gets wiped out first. I feel like I am getting to a point that I should be leaving just based on being here over 2 years, but not sure what happens next.

Background Graduated 6 years ago 4 YOE in REPE / First job was at a Developer 3 years at current firm

On paper the carry is lucrative to stay, but I am coming up on the that 3 year mark and I am not sure if staying is really in my best interest. Is there a real way to leave and get paid out/ do people really pay that much for associate level person to leave? Do I stay for 2 more years and look for a higher switch in terms of job? Seems like no matter what I lose unless I just want a higher salary today.

What should I be doing to leave and move up rather than end up with less responsibilities than I currently have/less busy work and get a decent structure.

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Having carry means taking risk like ownership does.  Unfortunately, it is rare to get to have your cake and eat it too - if you want the upside that comes with having a piece of the promote, that means accepting that it could get wiped out.

That being said, you haven't actually explained why you want to leave, except that you've "been there two years."  Getting carry is the ultimate goal, so if your firm is already handing it over this early, that seems like a good place to stay!  This isn't banking, where you are expected to jump ship every few years, there is no shame in staying for a long time at a company as long as you're learning, advancing, and getting paid more as you gain those skills and titles.  If you think they're in for a rough ride for the next few years and won't survive it, that is a different story, but from what you're saying it seems like the real reason you're leaving is "well, my time here has a 3 year expiration date" and I do not understand that.

 

I guess what is happening is tons of sourcing roles are finding their way into my inbox, that seem to be a better spot than analyst/associate role.

I feel like I might be pigeon holed at my firm as the only one who really understands our UW models, the carry is probably getting offered up so I don't leave for a sourcing role if that makes sense.

The concern is that I don't think there is a way up due to politics.

 

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