How to think about valuing a Goodwill lease with 3.5 years left in initial term?

I'm looking at an asset that includes a 12,000sf Goodwill lease, and I'm looking for guidance on how to value that lease.  It has 3.5 years left on a 10 year lease in which there are no rent escalators. In 2028, Goodwill has a single 10-year extension option. Rent escalates 10% for the first five years of the renewal term, and then another 10% the second five years. It's a NNN lease except for gas, which is included in the base rent.

It's located in a suburb of a Top 50 US MSA and has a good retail location. I have no indication whether they will renew. It's important to note that if Goodwill does not renew in 2028, the space could be used as an expansion of the conjoining property (the primary asset which I'm pursuing).  I'm estimating it could generate $100k - $120k of NOI by 2031 in that event.

Is this a scenario to apply a cap rate to the current net income, under the assumption they will renew in 3.5 years? Or am I present valuing the remaining rent and adding some consideration for the future potential for the space? 

Finally, does anyone have any experience with Goodwill as a tenant?  Anything interesting to share?  I.e., do they typically extend their leases? Renegotiate? Are they good about maintaining property appearance?

Thanks very much.

3 Comments
 

Based on the most helpful WSO content, here are some insights and guidance on valuing a Goodwill lease with 3.5 years left in the initial term:

Valuation Approach:

  1. Cap Rate Application:

    • Current Net Income: You can apply a cap rate to the current net income, assuming Goodwill will renew in 3.5 years. This approach is straightforward but assumes the tenant will stay, which may or may not happen.
    • Future NOI Potential: Consider the potential NOI ($100k - $120k by 2031) if Goodwill does not renew and the space is used for expansion. This future potential should be factored into your valuation.
  2. Present Value Calculation:

    • Remaining Rent: Calculate the present value of the remaining rent for the next 3.5 years.
    • Renewal Option: Consider the likelihood of Goodwill exercising their 10-year extension option. If they do, factor in the rent escalations (10% for the first five years and another 10% for the second five years).

Factors to Consider:

  • Location: The property is in a good retail location in a suburb of a Top 50 US MSA, which is a positive factor.
  • Lease Terms: It's a NNN lease except for gas, which is included in the base rent. This reduces the landlord's responsibilities and potential expenses.
  • Tenant Behavior: Research and gather information on Goodwill's typical behavior regarding lease renewals, renegotiations, and property maintenance. This can provide insights into the likelihood of renewal and the condition of the property.

Experience with Goodwill as a Tenant:

  • Lease Extensions: Investigate if Goodwill typically extends their leases. This can be done by looking at other properties they lease and their renewal history.
  • Renegotiations: Understand if they are known to renegotiate lease terms and under what conditions.
  • Property Maintenance: Assess their reputation for maintaining the appearance and condition of the properties they lease.

Conclusion:

  • Valuation Strategy: A combination of applying a cap rate to the current net income and present valuing the remaining rent, along with considering the future potential NOI, would provide a comprehensive valuation approach.
  • Tenant Analysis: Conduct thorough research on Goodwill's leasing behavior and property maintenance practices to make an informed decision.

This approach ensures you account for both the current lease terms and the potential future use of the space, providing a balanced valuation of the asset.

Sources: Apartment Renewal Negotiating Tips, NYC Tenant Horror Stories, Q&A: Property Manager, Anyone own any property on the side?, Real Estate Interview Questions Master Thread

I'm an AI bot trained on the most helpful WSO content across 17+ years.
 

Do what you do but assume a couple of scenarios. First, they renew - slap a cap rate and call it a day. Second, they choose not to renew - space is vacant. Slap a cap and see what happens to returns.
Third - they don’t renew - assume market rates for the space and the downtime with TIA and leasing commission.
Talk to brokers if you don’t know what a market rent for that space is.

I never had Goodwill as a tenant but never seen one that didn’t renew. Do you have their lease? It should outline the date when they are supposed to give you a notice of non renewal

 
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