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Based on the most helpful WSO content, there’s been significant discussion around NYC's political and regulatory shifts, particularly concerning real estate and broader economic implications. While specifics about Mamdani aren't directly addressed, the general sentiment is that sudden, sweeping changes in NYC's policies—like those seen with multi-family (MF) regulations—tend to create uncertainty and hesitation among investors and operators.
For example, recent NYC MF regulations have been criticized for their abrupt implementation, which has caused disruptions in the market. Some argue that a more gradual rollout could have mitigated the negative impact. This kind of regulatory environment can lead to a pause in activity, as stakeholders wait for clarity or adjust their strategies to the new rules.
If Mamdani's plans are perceived as similarly aggressive or disruptive, it’s likely that some shops may adopt a "wait-and-see" approach, especially if the policies target key sectors like real estate or finance. However, as with past changes, the market tends to find a new equilibrium over time, though the adjustment period can be challenging.
It would be interesting to hear from others in the industry if they’re already seeing signs of hesitation or shifts in strategy due to these developments.
Sources: New NYC MF regulations, Why not Chicago over NYC?
Here’s my observation on how this playing out: we’re inching towards average in-place rent of $20,000/mo with 2.5 WALT on our high end mf in south Florida.
Anyone pausing because of Mamdani is being exceptionally disingenuous. I believe a lot of crappy shops are claiming that they're pencils down because of Mamdani... while ignoring the fact they haven't transacted on anything in 24 months, because they're shit operators whose only business plan is "low interest rates"
Fucking hell. Anyone who thinks Mamdani is going to have a chilling effect on real estate doesn't know what they're talking about, or is seizing an opportunity to avoid admitting they're a fucking failure.
This is not even true. Large developers with over $4 billion in their pipeline have already had layoffs. I posted a thread on this but it got deleted.
Institutional LPs already have been pencils down within the last few weeks.
Just because you don't work in the institutional space doesn't mean its not happening.
Yes, and if those people are saying it's because Zohran Mamdani was elected, they're lying.
Sure, buddy. And the reason? If it's just "socialist hurr durr" then it's all performative bullshit. Point me towards a policy they think is going to impact their business which didn't exist a month or a year or a decade ago.
And just because you heard a story from your friend's brother's roommate who is a 24 year old analyst, pretending like they know what the executive or credit team is thinking, doesn't make it true.
As I said, I believe that a lot of shitty operators have been claiming that they're hitting the brakes thanks to Mamdani. I don't believe for one single second that someone who was actively buying and looking to buy on Oct 31 is suddenly not doing so on Dec 1 because of Mamdani. Maybe they've closed their books. Maybe they think the market is overpriced. Plenty of reasons to be wary. Anyone hiding behind Mr Mamdani is dishonest and/or incompetent.
I’m waiting for Becky Quick to tell me what to think
I had a couple of lenders pull back in NYC because of Mamdani. One paired back their proceeds after issuing the LOI and the other straight up yanked their LOI. Ironically both lenders are out of LA.
While I do think Mamdani will have a negative impact, it's hard to imagine investors making some kind of 180 after his election. Investors weren't choosing NYC for its landlord friendliness to begin with.
In my mind, NYC was a 2 / 10 for landlord-friendliness under Adams (while he was relatively friendly to RE, the state legislature / city council were not and they have significant control and it's been like that for years). Under Mamdani, it will be a 1.5 / 10 for landlord friendliness IMO.
Remember, De Blasio was anti-real estate and real estate did well up until the Housing Stability and Tenant Protection Act of 2019. And if you think HSTPA involved the mayor or city council, you should probably sit out this discussion entirely.
I think NYC is resilient enough with enough big companies entrenched here to survive one political cycle of a socialist who probably won’t be able to push most of his agenda through anyway. Would I want to own a rent stabilized building right now? Absolutely not but I think other asset classes within commercial real estate will keep humming along business as usual for the most part. I don’t see even the most radical socialists giving a fuck about what a LL charges a commercial tenant because “corporations are evil”.
Higher taxes would be an incentive for some wealthy individuals and companies to leave the city but I’m optimistic Mamdani doesn’t have the muscle to push any of that through.
I am your textbook example of a high income Republican who will bitch and complain but no matter what happens I’m not leaving NYC. The entrenchment factor is real. You get used to living somewhere and have family/friends there and you are kind of stuck there no matter how bad the politics or taxes get.
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