Probability of S2 recap returning equity

Scott Everett is many things but a quitter isn’t one.

S2 is attempting to save their REIT and Fund I by pooling 26 viable properties into a new fund created expressly for these purchases at a basis of $1.26B - with senior debts totaling $1.2B, marking for an average LTV of 95%

The target equity raise is $115M, uses consisting of: $38.4M debt repurchase, $25M principal paydown on loan mods, $15.4M to rate caps, $8M capex, and $7.5M closing costs, leaving $20.7M working capital

The plan is also contingent on the following:
1. All mezz noteholders exchanging for equity
2. Positive rent growth in the first year
3. SOFR < 4.1% in the next 5 years
4. Operating expenses, insurance, and taxes trending at or below 2%, 3%, and 3%, respectively.

If this was a prediction market bet, what would the odds be that investors see a return of capital?

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