Rise and Tides
Does anyone have an update as q3 wrapped up on Rise and Tides? Know there’s a big thread on Tides but wanted to start new one to include Rise.
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I have nothing to add, but want to tell you that you da real MVP.
It became impossibly hard to track the old thread given how difficult it is to track new posts
Who cares! Many firms are struggling today. Yes. They bought some bad deals, so did many others! Let it go folks.
So you work at rise or tides?
They have no equity in their deals. The fact that you can't understand how this, plus the fact that they clearly don't know how to operate real estate and we're just planning on flipping their assets to someone else to hold the bag, makes them fundamentally different from a struggling shop that is suffering alongside their investors, makes it pretty obvious you work at a syndicator
Some bad deals? They were all crap
Not letting it go until these firms collapse, bud. GL
Bump
Rise does pretty simple capital stacks, 60-65% LTC and tight rate caps for 3 years, no mezz or pref. Coming across them in Texas they do tend to overpay and close in 60 days so brokers love them, and I know they have a few more under contract.
Tides has a good chunk of their portfolio one missed payment away from lender taking control. I would not be surprised if by this time next year, they fall from ~30k unit portfolio to 10K. The crazy thing with Tides is the whole operation is built around flipping. Given their portfolio size they have a very lean corporate staff and only recently have they been hiring trying to build a team that knows how to manage and operate. With their reputation I'd be hard to recruit "A" level talent so this will be interesting to watch.
They have only done simple capital stacks since the market has forced it on them
They are going to lose a lot of investors a lot of money as there 2021 and Q1 and 2 2022 deals were awful. There recent deals are still awful but they are putting more equity in so it just means they probably do not get foreclosed. But no one is making any money on any of their deals anytime soon
LOL - the dream is to have as little money as possible in deals and fee & promote yourself! This is capitalism 101. If you can find a cheap guarantor or low pref, that’s how millions and billions are made! Why do you think family office is better than institutional capital? You are capped on fees (acq and AM) and promote and usually institutions want more of your capital in deals!
Sure, but these aren't institutions or family offices that are getting their equity wiped out. These are unsophisticated middle-class investors who were milked for fees after being promised the dream of retiring early with passive income on social media.
I get that, but people need to be aware. It can't just be oh I'm middle class and unsophisticated someone sold me a dream if I invest $100k I'll insane returns and retire early. Everyone has to do their own due diligence. Also who thinks it's a good idea to plow every last dollar into one investment as well. It's like the Madoff ponzi scheme, people saying they have nothing left after investing everything into one entity like what are you doing.
The more I'm in the industry the more I see how many naive people there are and it candidly surprises me. How is there not a basic level of risk management at the minimum even if you don't understand all the nuances of a deal you're investing in.
Sean? Ryan? Is that you? lol, The dream is to make a profit with as little money as possible. I see why your firm is failing now...you forgot about the profit part lol
LOL! One day, you will grow up or give all your money to a coGP who adds immaterial value and takes 50 percent of your promote!
OPM is best.
Maybe add Kyle or Brad to the list. 🤠
LOL. Another unscrupulous fraudster rearing their head.
The dream of any actual real estate professional is to have your investors make a ton of money and thus pay you huge promotes, and then have them plow all that into the next deal. The dream of guys at Rise48 or Tides is to buy as many deals as possible, make as many fees as possible, and then leave their investors holding the bag for the absolute shitshow they created through not understanding how to manage assets.
Millions and billions are absolutely not made through this kind of behavior, except in tech. Reputation matters, and no one deal is rich enough to make someone 9 figures of net worth. These syndicators are little better than 3 card monte guys - they'll get a lot of naive rubes to play the game with them, they'll make their fees, and they'll move on - but they'll never create anything of value, because that was never the point.
Hell, two of the best ways to build value in this business, through long term asset appreciation and taking advantage of depreciation, they'll never get the benefit of! I'm sure Sean and Ryan made millions of dollars each in fees - the question is what happens when they need to start paying back lenders to keep the place afloat. Will they do so, and then bring themselves back to square one in a business they couldn't do in the first place? Or bail, and take their $25mm or whatever, and go find something else to do?
I don't even know how you move on today in the age of social media and the internet, everyone know's who you are and that you screwed people but there are also others who don't do that diligence and there's always a comeback story if you treat people well.
They capped soo hard saying they have bail out financing
Fake news!
Truth! If you can crystallize or pref burn off after x number of years, you are in a solid spot! If you have 3-tier pref ending at 18 before 30 or 40 promote. You are not going to make money. You don’t make money on 10% equity in the game. That’s the owner money that can’t be touched. Your salary is based on fees and promote if you work for good folks is how you make money if you are the deal sponsor or associates of the deal team. But I want the LP taking all the risk!!! OPM, read the book!!
Am I missing something here? Is this guy replying to himself and posting it as a new comment?
OPM book as in the Stuytown deal that went horribly wrong?
This was my exact thought. Literally the worst example I could think of in a case where a Sponsor made bad decisions that still impact them today, some 15 years later. They still have difficult raising capital from United States LPs because of the bridges burned and they're a blue chip operator.
I've been actively posting on the Tides thread recently about their immanent failures. Long and the short of it is here:
- They are delinquent of a few Readycap loans. Those notes are being actively shopped by the traditional note brokers in NYC, but are still holding out for 97-100% of par. Values are closer to 65-70% of par so TBD on who scoops them up.
- MF1 in deep deep caca with them, had to do a few mods to get them through (or just to) Q1 2024. Mostly structured them as accrual pieces. MF1 doesn't really care to take them back because berkshire, but also a bunch of other issuance related reasons why they mod'd those loans. Tides now has senior loan that have accrual pieces in front of pref loans with accrual pieces that are PG'd and no more reserves. That's soon to be done-zo.
- All their loans are in servicing pretty much (link below), and their Equity (AMC and MCP) are both running around trying to hold back as long as they can.
https://crenews.com/2023/10/19/9-loans-totaling-299-8mln-against-tides-…
Rise is Tides 2.0, so assuming they'll fall just after Tides, but haven't heard of them being as illegal and dirty as Tides has been in their operations so not sure where they stand.
I'm going to keep posting about Tides loans and work outs etc. on the other forum as it becomes more public and I know that thread is the one that the Real Deal folks follow for updates. A few other non public info is still in the works, and everyone of the sharks I know who have cash ready to put out for their notes are just waiting for them to hemorrhage a bit more and then its going to be a feeding frenzy.
I heard a syndicator who has 7-10 properties in Phoenix (mainly purchased in 2021/2022) missed their October mortgages across the portfolio.
Interesting - looks like the Rise pumper executives have disabled comments in their LinkedIn posts :
They've slowly started getting more questions on posts asking about things going wrong so checks out they want to nip that.
Tides has to be done soon
Knowing these guys if everything looks good at the senior level, then there is definitely garbage pref/side letters in there silently killing the deal.
They don't disclose the subordinate shit to their investors, even their "institutional" equity, because the way they see it is it's all PG'd by them and no claims on the property so not necessary. Of course that's a false narrative because of the claims of cash flow etc. but there isn't a single deal they are holding onto that isn't underwater.
So they are going to have to make their first capital call ever? Don’t they have a couple of December maturities coming up? I thought I saw something from a recent MSCI spreadsheet that also labeled the properties as potentially distressed.
-
25 of their 29 phoenix deals are under 90 percent occupied and have been for year according to costar. Thats massive shortfalls.
Has to be Rise Midtown
I used to think Zach was just a dumb guy who has no clue what he is doing but who is basically a well meaning, earnest guy. However, given his wildly deceptive video response and media interviews, I think he is a bad guy who knows exactly what he is doing and could care less about his investors
How is Rise still buying deals? Saw they closed a deal last week
That’s insane
Who is dumb enough to give them money
For every snake oil seller, there's a snake oil buyer.
It's sad but true, there's a lot of investors about to get screwed.
Here's a weird observation, but have you noticed all Rise's candid videos they post on LinkedIn about them explaining something to their computer (which I suspect is bullshit), those computers are Macs?
I could be off, but who uses Macs in this industry? Excel is so much harder to use on a Mac, as well as really anything that needs to be done. I'm sure they have a few analysts doing the lifts on PCs, but just odd because presumably they should be reviewing the models, etc.
Just an observation.
Excel isn't really any harder these days on a Mac, and I'm admittedly a fan, but yeah no one uses a Mac in real estate.
Students make more complicated pro formas in their 1 hour case study than what they work with so it doesn't really matter between mac/pc
https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/11/06/tides-equities-late-on-150m…
--
Has the rise pref raise been reported on or is that just what JLL has started talking to potential investors about?
I would not take that deal.
I know the JLL broker, not super well, but have gone to him for advice here and there in the past. I know there's a few bro brokers that have done a lot of repeat business with Tides but not sure how I feel about facilitating transactions with poor stewards of capital... I mean, these guys are doing their jobs (exceptionally well), but feels *just* a tad bit dirty
Hearing Rise has some December maturities coming up. Interested to see if they are gonna extend
Which ones? I haven’t seen any maturities until summer.
Will check the MSCI spreadsheet I was sent and revert back.
Tides had a maturity last week from Argentic, went to SS last month with a dscr of 0.74x and a 79% occupancy. Not sure what they are doing about that, but doesn't sound like an extension option or refi option is in the cards...
Tides on Duneville is the property
Ya I can see Tides having maturities already from their 2020 purchases but Rise48 didn’t really get started until Q2 2021. Excellent market timers, prepare to see the worst sponsor performance in the history of CRE.
https://therealdeal.com/national/2023/11/14/multifamily-syndicator-rise…
Can he get in trouble for misleading investors on this stuff? It seems like the pitch decks on his recent purchases should have had a disclaimer about his other deals going bad.
Ah yes, the "We will likely lose 100% of our existing portfolio" disclosure. Not sure there is a disclosure for it but it can certainly be considered fraud to communicate everything is fine when the entire portfolio is in distress.
It was only a matter of time….
While I’m not shocked, I’m saddened that they stooped that low. Here they are sitting on the precipice of a massive, career-altering disaster, and they have the audacity to tell unsophisticated folks “how to raise and manage capital”. Not only that, but one of the “benefits” of their highest-tier class is “preferential 90/10 splits on Rise48 deals”.
I’m sure in their minds it’s just more fee income to bilk people out of…and potentially more equity coming in the door.
As much as I love the multifamily industry and a lot of the people in it, I can’t fucking stand this “LinkedIn influencer/syndicator” model that is so rampant these days. Unless you’re an absolute superstar, it takes years to develop the skills to effectively manage operations and capital. Halfway timing a market cycle (before losing everything) doesn’t make you an expert, it makes you a degenerate gambler (with OPM) at best…
He knows how to raise the money, he just doesn’t know how to keep the money
Wow this is bad, wtf are the guys doing!?
I feel gross just looking at their website.
I don't know if it's a graphics quirk on WSO or if this is the way it looks on their site, but I have to admit I'm laughing my ass off at the idea that they couldn't even get "Fundamental" right, and it reals "Fundament Al"
There are so many of these people who are pivoting from shitty MF deals to fundraising gurus now that the market has changed. And they will unfortunately succeed because most people are sheep and have no critical analysis skills. Its sad but these people know how to take advantage of these situations and clearly have no ethical dilemas about what they do.
Rise is still closing deals!?
Looks like they closed a deal in Dallas this week. Anyone know the average IQ of their investors?
Can't make this stuff up... Rise48 has had to infuse capital into "only 9 of their deals" as of the date of this video. Well if you look at their portfolio, only 11 properties have hit an assumed 2 year cap expiration. Too bad there's another 12 coming up over the next 5 months. It is nothing short of fraud coming from this group.
https://vimeo.com/897020815/ec0d2617c6?share=copy&utm_medium=email&_hsm…
What are the rise investors doing at this point? Do any of them understand the value of the real estate? Are they seeking legal council to figure out their options?
Also, did WSO delete a bunch of comments here or has it just been silent for a while?
The waterboys are all over the news again, 3 foreclosues in TX, 2 from Starwood 1 from Bridge. This is getting painful to watch, someone just put them out of their misery.
Seperately, has anything gone back to lender on Rise?
Not that I can tell; they keep closing on new stuff
https://therealdeal.com/texas/dallas/2024/09/16/tides-equities-hit-with…
I'm only in one Rise deal that closed in Dallas in mid-late 2023. The performance has been decent/good with 4.5% annualized payments. Reporting has been made on-schedule as well as monthly distributions. I do wonder if they are trying to grow too fast as it seems like they are purchasing a new value add asset every month or so. I'm caught up in a couple GVA (they imploded) deals in which they were replaced with new sponsors. Capital Calls happened. Outcomes won't be good for equity LPs as you can imagine. Other folks, such as S2, compiled their distressed assets into a REIT fund, repriced your equity, and performed a large refi. Others I'm in w/ fixed rate debt are fine and have debt with decent NOI and distributions.
Anything caught up in 2021/2022 purchases on floating rates are considered lost money (some or whole).
For Rise - They are aggressively buying B+ type assets in DFW right now in the 5.1-5.3 cap rate range.
First off I have reviewed a number of Rise’s deals and the way they do their distributions is by dramatically over funding the equity raise.
Which means the distributions you are getting are more then likely coming from your own money
4.5% return on your equity is also pathetic right now given what you could buy long term treasuries at.
Now over funding equity makes investors feel comfortable but I see zero chance when they sell the assets their will be the equity pop many think as I am always blown away at high their basis’s are
It will allow them to not default on loans BUT again they are terrible investments
I mean look at the people running it, does anything scream sophisticated strong investor to you
And every MF broker and owner in Dallas thinks Rise is a joke and total bottom feeders they can sell mediocre deals too way above where true market pricing is
Thanks for your feedback - It's helpful. Like I said I've only invested in 1 deal with Rise while I'm invested in many others with different syndicators. It sounds like you guys are familiar with DFW - What do you think about Trinity Investors (Previously TPEG)? They are based in Southlake and are a PE firm focused on MF.
Shady
Backed S2 and did a bunch of terrible deals
Basically a feeder fund without any strong idea what they are doing in the RE space
I would not invest in any of these groups As they don’t do anything special and over fee everything
Appreciate that feedback. I've heard good things about Trinity so I'm glad I got your perspective. Can I assume you're passive or active? Anyone you would recommend to invest with passively? I've used 3-4 over last 5 years and always wanting to diversify trusted GPs.
May I ask what is the appeal of investing into one of these syndicators as oppose to creating a portfolio of stocks and bonds? If you want passive income you can definitely create a portfolio/index fund of investment grade bonds and preferred stocks and maybe a portfolio/index fund of some tech stocks if you want a potential "pop" in value. With where treasury rates are today I'd argue that you would generate a better return this way AND be taking less risk than investing in one of these syndicators. As the VP mentioned above...4.5% is dog shit. The risk free rate today is ~3.75%. You aren't even getting 1% more in yield with these syndicators, but are definitely taking way more risk than the risk free rate. The only chance of making it worth it is on the sale which lets be honest, with where rates are today, it's probably unlikely you'll see significant cap rate compression if at all
Presumably because social media tells these people to invest in syndicators? Any time I'm amazed at self-defeating or stupid behavior I remember how much people care about clout on social media, or how much value they put on the opinions of people with lots of followers. Then I just get depressed
I understand your points. I have a good mix of stocks and "risk free" money markets that yielding around 5.25%. However with rates being cut I'd like to gain more exposure to RE. Trying to find more trustworthy GPs that operate in the multifamily space.
But why? Is it for diversification? You just said money markets are yielding 5.25% which is higher than the 4.5% from syndicators, but way less risk. The math isn't mathing. Why not invest in REITs if you want real estate exposure? At least that way you will actually get a competent operator. A big part of investing in real estate is acquiring property at a low/reasonable basis. If an operator doesn't acquire property at a reasonable basis, the investment can very well be doomed from the start and these syndicators have a clear history of acquiring at a high basis. What is the appeal of investing in the syndicators?
Yes for the most part it's for diversification purposes. I have looked at the REIT route, but it seems like the tax benefits aren't as compelling. Do you have similar or different view from tax standpoint when comparing REITs to syndications? In regards to buying at a competitive basis - I've been seeing/investing in several deals over last 12 months that are trading 20-30% lower than they were in 2021/2022. Not saying $/door can't continue to fall, but I believe they are decent entry prices.
Pretty rich to walk into a thread where there are about 100 comments about how bad a syndicator's investments are and someone is justifying putting money with them. You can get a 4.5% distribution in a savings account and your money will actually be there at the end of the day.
Not at all defending, but rather just trying to learn more about people's perspectives and opinions. I'm new to this message board, but not new to passive LP investing. I could rant about my investments with GVA and S2, but I couldnt find a dedicated thread about those GPs/syndicators.
I'd be interested to hear more about your experience with S2. My impression was that they are one of the better/more reputable syndicators -- but they did buy a lot at the peak of the market, like many others. How did that REIT fund work? I assume it involved bringing in a bunch of new equity and diluting the original investors?
As a community, can we agree to not publicly disclose details that would give syndicators yet another tool in their bag to dupe unsuspecting retail investors? This poster as is was lauding Rise48's track record in another thread and is no inquiring on how S2 is actively trying to cram down unsuspecting retail investors.
Let's be better than this.
They combined 28 existing assets and placed into a newly formed REIT. They appraised each of the 28 independently and gave you # of shares accordingly. Most of the 28 assets received less than 100% of their original investment in shares which diluted you. Then yes they raised additional equity that are higher in the waterfall.
I also thought S2 was a higher-performer syndicator, but I will say the deals I participated were in Charlotte, prior to the crazy run up in prices, rent, etc and they will couldnt pull out any profit. I was diluted about 15%.
What you're doing is the equivalent of asking the DEA which drug dealers are honest.
This is an institutional-orientated community. Members are predominantly either i) currently in a role in institutional real estate, ii) previously had a role in institutional real estate, iii) are looking for a role in institutional real estate, or iv) looking to learn more about the industry from an institutional lens.
Bigger Pockets is more focused on less educated, less sophisticated, retail investors - for better or worse.
It is very unlikely you're going to find feedback here on reputable syndicators. In fact, there's probably enough discourse as it as to who are the more versus less reputable institutional firms. Generally, syndicators are such a clear rung beneath the institutional operators they just act as a (well deserved, imo) punching bag here.
That's really good feedback - Thank you. I had no idea of who was participating in this message board. I figured it was mostly LPs like me trying to share thoughts.
In fairness, there are sophisticated/institutional-type groups that syndicate retail/HNW money and are good stewards of it. But there is a very low probability that you'll see any of those groups popping up in your social media feed or on BiggerPockets. If there's a video of some dude walking around a potential acquisition while talking to the camera, you should run. If the company runs a "Mastermind" or seminar offering to show you how to invest in multifamily, stay far away. Those groups are marketers and hype men, not experienced, credentialed real estate operators. Instead, I'd recommend going to a ULI (Urban Land Institute) or NMHC event, reading some industry publications (you can start with MultiHousingNews) and perhaps reaching out to the top commercial brokers in your area--they'll likely be able to point you in the right direction.
I agree with a lot of what you said. But I'll say one thing. We do syndications though primarily target HNW. Our mins are $150k-$200k. We dont do sell books, courses, or do flamboyant marketing, but we do spend plenty of money on ads. Its how we get our name out there. Marketing shouldn't be a sign that the investment is a scam, but how you market should. Example, we spent about $20K marketing to doctors over two conferences. We had booths setup, we spent money on brochures that described our track record, etc. We also spend money on facebook and google ads as well. These generate leads and brand awareness. But we never will do the crappy Cardone style of marketing.
Appreciate your candid thoughts. I agree there are a $hit-ton of fly by night syndicators that you must stay away from. I agree that institutional operators are the superior players, but someone like me, who can't allocate $5M+ to a deal, isn't really given a look by institutional operators. At least this is my experience. Any other creative ways to gain institutional exposure if you DONT have a $5M/deal bankroll?
Thank you for event and publication recommendations - I will take you up on them!
I would call up a reputable broker in a market you like and ask them for a group that they think is good.
Brokers in different markets are going to have different focuses.
Look for someone that doesn't do crowdfunding and does fixed rate debt and has experience operating.
Most operators, myself included, will take checks above $25k or $100k.
If you send a list of markets you like, i can recommend brokers in those markets if i know a broker in that market.
In reality, brokers will sell a deal to anyone and they don't care about the outcome because their client is the deal. Some brokers know which operators do more stable deals. Other brokers have a hard time judging which operators are stable.
A lot of brokers selling deals to Tides, GVA, and Rise thought they were super smart, but other brokers knew that they were doing super risky deals.
Yes. It is very easy, straight forward, and boring.
Take the themes you're observing in the institutional deals and allocate that capital to parallel, blue-chip REITs. If you want to be long workforce housing, allocate to $MAA, a predominantly Class B owner and operator of multifamily. If you want to be long luxury housing, allocate to $AVB, a predominantly Class A owner and operator of multifamily. If you want to be long industrial, allocate to $PLD, an industrial owner and operator. So on and so forth.
If you're not a UHNW or FO, there's no logical reason to be investing in private placements. Just allocate your capital in the public markets accordingly if you really want real estate exposure.
To be honest I think you made investments thinking RE was going to be an easy bet when the interest rates was almost zero and now in this new interest rate environment you really need to pick the right operator but just as importantly the right operator who understands how to pair business plan with capital markets. It seems like you are successful in another field and want to strategically place capital in RE to make money on duration. The companies you’ve chosen to invest with are using high leverage that will do amazing when the times are good but could lose you significant equity in a downturn. I work for institutional real estate private equity firm that focuses multifamily and am more than willing to help other people understand the inputs you should be focusing on that ultimately helps you make the decision on why an investment would be good or bad not just listening to a sponsors UW.
Well said! And yes would be open to a discussion.
There is a big difference between private placement and REITs. Being a REIT doesn't mean you are going to be good. Lots of bad publicly traded companies out there and the big time analysts and rating agencies don't actually look into their assets.
I don't care what you invest in, but after seeing big rating agencies positively rate publicly traded reits that have terrible assets that are worth far less than the debt amounts, i have 0 trust in them.
This just simply isn't accurate.
Don't get me wrong - all REITs are not made equal. But, on average a large-cap, blue-chip, publicly traded REIT is a significantly better investment opportunity for a non-sophisticated, retail investor as compared to most alternatives - ESPECIALLY private placements.
There are misaligned incentives in literally every single part of life. But at least public REITs have a significant higher standard of transparency and operations compared to any private placement opportunity that exist - even the Blackstone flagship vehicles.
"The big rating agencies positively rate public traded reits that have terrible assets that are worth far less than the debt amounts,"
What in earth are you talking about? Give me an example? If you're referring to either $RC or $ABR, those are mortgage REITS that have a completely different business model and are more financial engineering firms using the wrapper of a REIT than a traditional real estate operating company. They are not apples to apples - pun intended.
I don't care what you invest in. You speak of averages and if you want to invest in averages, go for it. You will make money when the real estate goes up and you will lose a fortune when the market goes down. The opportunities in real estate don't exist in averages. I am also not saying that the person inquiring about private placements will be able to get the good investments.
I don't put specific companies on blast, but unless the big reits have taken massive mark downs since they bought portfolios at 2.5% caps, then their books don't reflect the true value of their assets. This goes for mortgage and equity reits as they both have real estate that make up their balance sheets. Different parts of the equity stack, but both ultimately rely on the value of the real estate. Have the analysts called for massive mark downs?
The upside in private placements can far exceed that of a REIT but the losses can ultimately be the same in both vehicles. When certains REITs go under, and they will, several will follow. It is happening to private placements already. It is a different risk/return equation. Some REITs are better than others but being a REIT doesn't mean the underlying investments are good.
The person looking at private placements here is looking at multifamily - what public multifamily REIT made acquisitions at 2.5-3% caps? Sure there were some one-off deals, but I can’t think of a single one that was truly “active” in 2H 2021 and 2022. That period was nearly all private buyers - syndicators, institutional JVs, discretionary funds, and then a handful of private REITs.
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