Who is/has been short [BP]?
I have been for awhile what about you guys?
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I think at this point it's no longer a question of economics but of law, and I'm not a lawyer so don't think I can effectively calculate liability, and am thus staying clear. I know there were a spate of stories and analyst reports arguing the decline in BP's share price is overdone, but the fact is, worst case, the liabilities from this far exceed BP's enterprise value, let alone equity value.
I do love the tags that came with this story though - particularly, numbers 5, 8, 13, 17, and 18
lol I have got to start paying more attention to tags! That is the only time you will see redtube mentioned with fox news and buying gold.
BP was a great short at 50+, even 48. I think that you may want to cover if we see any kind of rally on Tuesday, or any hint that this leak is going to be solved.
Agree with the above post. It's going to open at 36 today after the failed top kill approach. A good time to cover.
I didn't short and I'm pissed about it.
A guy in my office has been swearing up and down that it's the right move, but he warned about the timeframe for the fall.
He believe that BP will end up bankrupt depending on legal entity/liability laws and some sort of "too big to fail" government assistance.. The problem with this is it will probably take years upon years to get to a final conclusion on this mess and who will hold the short that long?
Covering doesn't seem like a bad idea now, but I heard this morning that they've already spent $1B, the leak might be getting worse and it's likely to continue until at least August. There may be room to fall further.
Even though I'm definitely still considering short right now, at some point when this bottoms and there's some clarity to BP's ultimate liability I'll likely be a buyer in my 401k. I have to believe that if they don't go under in the next 2-5 years, BP will eventually be a great investment again.
BP will not go bankrupt, and when the stock holds a bottom, it will be an excellent BUY
Market seems to think it's a possibility
http://av.r.ftdata.co.uk/files/2010/06/Oil_CDS.jpg
Yeah, I saw the CDS spreads. As long as we can keep people like Holder away from the situation we will be ok
Somehow, I don't feel comfortable investing based on a "keep Eric Holder at bay" thesis
BP 5yr cds offered at 190 isn't a huge deal in the grand scheme of things, Still got 40b ebitda and 7b in cash, ain't gonna disappear.
even with a multiple-notch-downgrade, still gonna be IG.
Exxon didn't come close to folding and neither will BP. 9% yield and under $40? Time to buy the crap out of it and wait it out.
Exxon was substantially smaller than this in potential liability (which if you're in NOLA you should know), and benefited from a republican president and a congress that stood almost unanimously behind it. That's not even close to the situation BP is facing
Correct, I am in New Orleans so there is no doubt about a very large potential liability. If you don't want the underlying look at the Jan12 call options. My humble opinion is that the risk/reward is there.
I've been shorting for a while and I just covered my losses. Note: I'm new to trading so I'm still getting used to the nuances of when to put money in and pull it out. So I'm just playing it a little conservatively now.
Too dangerous. Let's say you buy now, stock falls considerably more, and then Exxon or Occidental et al. announce a buyout under your initial buy price.
You'd be fucked.
True. I was just explaining why I personally wouldn't do it. I guess I should have been more clear. If that's your investment thesis on BP and you want to pull the trigger on it then I wish you the best of luck.
balbasur you must be feeling good at the moment.
can't believe BP is tanking everyday without a bottom in sight, 15% down today now at $29
So now the question is, when do we go long? $25? Lower? I find it hard to believe this will end the company.
Gapped down on open over here in London owing to the late US sell-off, but been rallying all morning. There are definitely some big buyers stepping in, as they believe there to be severe mispricing. At the same time, lots of funds over here are trying like mad to dump big blocks as well. BP is sooo heavily engrained into the investment environment in UK, paying like £1 of every £7 of divs collected by pensioners. You got Obama talking a lot of shit, but he doesn't exactly have the best track record of keeping his word. I doubt there's going to be any material "ass-kicking". BP's bleeding money but BS can take it, but I would definitely not be averaging down on this bad boy.
remember when b2 made a post about how Thain is going to save ML, and make the #2 bank again. Yup, just waiting for that dude on the BP trade now.
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