Interview Question - Semiconductor Industry - How to answer?
I was asked this in an interview:
"What are the key drivers and risks in the Semiconductor industry?"
"What is the WACC/discount rate of Semiconductor companies?"
1) What is the right/accurate answer assuming you know it?
2) How would you go about answering it if you don't have any industry specific knowledge at all?
Well the approach to this question depends on what the interview was for - if this was for a tech-focused ER/HF/PE/IB position, well, let's hope you know something about semis. Otherwise, they're more interested in your thought process. If you can throw in some technical things while you're at it, great. That said, I'll approach it from both angles, with industry-specific knowledge and without.
Let's go with #1) "What are the key drivers and risks in Semiconductors"
No industry knowledge - hypothetical thought process:
Well, semiconductors involve a lot of R&D and then manufacturing to end customers in all sorts of industries. From the supply (R&D and MFG) side: 1 - What if R&D is unsuccessful (on both manufacturing and product)? 2 - What if manufacturing is not as efficient as originally hoped? Demand side: Well, Intel's customers are big PC manufacturers, and people don't buy new computers unless they have to (neither do businesses for that matter). So the business might be cyclical. And what if the competitors do better on manufacturing/R&D than we do? Competitive risk. 1 - Cyclical business 2 - Competition on both manufacturing and R&D 3 - Technology risk - what if the product is a flop or falls out of favor?
Now with some industry info (before someone flames me here I don't suppose to be the be-all end-all of semis, just some pointers to help a monkey out)
I would ask for clarification on which kinds of semis we're talking about. There are several different categories: 1) Vertically integrated players (examples: INTC, AMD (eh, we'll grant them the globalfoundries stake), STM, ATML) - these companies both design chips and manufacture themselves 2) Fabless semiconductor players (examples: NVDA, BRCM, QCOM, MRVL) - they design chips and have companies in group 3 manufacture them 3) Contract foundries (examples: TSM, UMC, GlobalFoundries) - they make other people's designs. 4) Semiconductor equipment (examples: XLNX, ALTR) - they make design hardware/software packages
Each of these categories faces different sets of drivers, and each company within will face different demand outlook - for instance, Atmel (ATML) is in such a wide variety of end products that its business cycle is not as cyclical as say NVDA, which relies on the higher-end graphics market for revenue.
...
2) WACC
No knowledge again:
If you assumed earlier that these companies are fairly cyclical, then you could approximate the beta for the sector as 1, adding perhaps 0.2-0.5 for the additional technology risk, at which point you just pick a beta in that ballpark and use CAPM (10yr treasury at 3.85% today and an ERP of ~6% yields a WACC of 12.85% w/ a beta of 1.5).
Adding some industry knowledge
For sake of simplicity, let's use the aggregated list of companies above. The straight average beta would come out around 1.5 I think (just spot checked a few on Yahoo), and then do same as above.
Phew. Hope that was helpful.
really good layout for the question. Just wondering if the industry classification still holds in 2015, on whether things have changed a bit with popularity of blootooth chips and internet connected equipments. I'm thinking in terms of answering the same questions as of 2015. Your insights would be really helpful
What about in reality? What is the actual WACC range?
Fab is all headed overseas to Asia. If you're a middle market business with no presence in Singapore, it's likely that you'll continue to experience declining revenue. The industry was hit particularly hard during this recession, and while we've seen a substantial comeback over the last 3-6 months, capacity is expected to remain limited through 2010.
One of our portfolio companies serves this space -- you're really not expected to know a lot of the details, as dacarez mentioned. Do your best to think through it (out loud), and you'll generally come out okay. The interviewer is less interested in you having done the research and is more interested in your ability to think through the question.
Shimness: I told you how to get the actual range. Go to Yahoo Finance, or your favorite source of betas, grab the betas for all those names, and take that out to WACC as shown. Though as CompBanker said, it would probably hurt your cause to come out and say "oh, Semis have a WACC of 8.27-15.34%" - again, thought process, not exact answer / research.
CompBanker: As always, your insight is appreciated. I tried hard to think of a US/Euro-based fab co. (except GF maybe, and even that is going to have Asia presence after Chartered/ATIC), nothing really came to mind.
Thanks for the SB whoever threw it my way :)
You're welcome and you're welcome.
Thanks for the insight.
And of course, thanks for the monkey shit ;)
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