I'm wondering what Trump's all too certain nomination for the Republican Party means for banking and finance in general. He's been cleaning up his team and taking a more presidential tone, which will be good for everyone to start weighing in on what his presidency will mean for US politics and economics alike. Remember a few things he's talked about since his announcement to run:
-Trump has vowed to go after 'the hedge fund guys' and to make them pay.
-He thinks that Mexico and China are getting over on the U.S. and that most of the foreign countries aren't doing their share while the U.S. gets hammered in trade.
-As far as foreign policy goes, Trump doesn't like the relationships with the rest of the world--this goes for US forces in Japan or its involvement in the Middle East.
-Despite that the TPP was written to encourage further dialogue with China and to exercise U.S. influence in the increasingly important East, Trump's belief is that it is a bad deal and should've never been done.
-Another bad deal, according to Trump, is the nuclear removal package negotiated by Kerry and Obama that was taken as diplomacy first to clear away that threat.
-Trump's best ideas for dealing with antagonist leaders like Putin so far has been, almost to quote him exactly: 'I get along with everyone'.
-He thinks that when a KKK member says that Trump is looking out for him, maybe the guy is bad, maybe he isn't and that women should shut up and just keep being beautiful.
To be fair to Trump, trade imbalances are a growing problem as some countries have too high savings and the world isn't resilient anymore to economic shocks. By putting the focus on this topic, it could lead to a development on the economics side for countries like the US with growing debt. Also, even if a wall along the Mexican border doesn't get built, something about migration has to be done for the sake of security and for the health of everyone, including the migrants themselves. McKinsey reported that the flows of people will be the number one flow as more developing countries grow their middle classes and companies look around the world to meet their hiring needs.
I personally find Trump's behavior and personality to be repulsive and an extreme show of ignorance about the dynamics of world economics and culture. With his new found 'presidential' act, I am thinking he will somehow try to become a real gentleman--he'll need to in order to face off with Hillary--but I am not sure how this general election will turn out. It is now the old and tried of Hillary the stateswoman, versus the unpredictable businessman. Hillary looks so battered I'm not sure if she'll come through this one after the energy that Trump has brought to the political table. So, what happens in the world if he becomes the 45th president of the US?
Trump is America's first working class/lower middle class presidential candidate. It will be an interesting election.
he actually says that?!? (i dont live in the country)
Nothing screams "working class/lower middle class" quite like Wharton undergrad
I think you're missing the point. Obama may have been seen as black, but he was clearly speaking the language of the university educated, comfortably moneyed class. Rhetoric that class was comfortable with.
How would you characterise Trump's rhetoric? Which strata is he building as his political base?
I wonder which working class/lower middle class family has the ability to loan their son $1m dollars to start a business....
Money does not buy class, no matter how much people want to believe it does (and that they can).
if you think trump represent working class / lower middle class citizens, you are bat shit insane. trump never in his life or in a billion years will be able to relate to these people.
on the other hand, if you are saying the working class / lower middle class citizens are stupid enough to vote for trump, that is a different discussion all together.
Largest landslide in a generation will happen this election is my prediction. The first female Presidency is all but a certainty at this point.
You willing to bet your firm on that, Mr. Fuld?
Too soon?
No doubt.
agree
My prediction on Trump's reaction:
Yup. It'll be worse than 1964. I think a lot of people will be holding their noses while voting. Both Trump and Clinton are not liked by many.
All the pundits are writing off the Donald too just like they wrote him off for the GOP nomination since July. He's going to put some states in play for the GOP that have blue for a while. I think he needs to get Kasich to be his VP to lock up Ohio.
These debates with Hillary are going to be ratings gold. He will be absolutely brutal on her and for good reason.
I actually think he will be quite handicapped in debating Hillary. His biggest obstacle is that she's a woman and he cannot steamroll through her, similar to how he steamrolled Jeb and Marco. If he gets riled up (which he will) and cannot control himself, anything that escapes his mouth that is even borderline offensive will be construed as sexist and misogynistic.
If I was Hillary, I would be pretty ecstatic at the prospect of debating Donald Trump. The strategy is simple:
Step 1) build a bulletproof defense and feign righteous indignation when Donald Trump loses it and personally insults you.
Step 2) Collect women's votes when they are equally outraged.
If the debate turns personal, he loses by default. If the debate turns to issues of substance and policy, he equally loses by default. Trump is going to have to exercise a great deal of self-restraint which I simply don't think he's capable of.
LOL
Wow! Didn't know there were so many Trump supporters here! That's interesting
Trump is a bigger oaf than Bush 43 and would be worse and less qualified than him. Bush 43 was a pretty big oaf and a largely incompetent President. I'm absolutely floored by the public at large's amnesia of boorish Bush's 2 terms, and the disastrous 8 years he presided over. Now, seemingly there is a movement to put this guy in office who is more unpredictable in nature than GWB ever was, which poses a huge international and domestic threat. Disclaimer: I'm not a democrat.
Can someone explain to me why I get so much MS? I probably sound like a beggar right now, but is my opinion really that hurtful?
People seem to think Trump's screaming and berating is the same thing as valid debate, independents will not be fooled. He needs Kashich to "lock up" Ohio? More like he needs Kasich to have a chance at Ohio. Florida and it's hispanics will assure Clinton wins that state. Ohio and Florida both being Ls, race over.
Ohio is an extremely tight race according to the polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs…
Also "Hispanics" isn't a very precise term. Hispanics in Florida are mostly Cuban and South American- very different from the Hispanic people in California who are mostly of Mexican heritage.
I see a lot of people making the same claims that were made during the primaries- that Trump is too brash, that his unfavorables are too high, etc. To me, a lot of these predictions demonstrate how out of touch people who work upper-middle class jobs in coastal cities are with the much of this country.
I'm not saying Trump will win, but the idea that this is somehow in the bag for Hillary Clinton is ridiculous. Like it or not, she has her fingerprints on many of the policies that people are so upset about- NAFTA, globalization, Iraq war, and the Wall Street bailouts. You may claim these are irrational objections, and you may have a point, but the idea that the guy making 45k as a guidance counselor in Akron, OH whose father worked at a factory for 30 years is somehow automatically going to vote for Hillary Rodham Clinton because Trump yells a lot is pure delusion.
Bump. Don't mean to brag tho haha.
CX1988 without getting into too much back and forth I will say this: he didn't even win a majority amongst his own party, his strongest primary performances were in the northeast which are blue strong-holds, I agree that Florida has more conservative hispanics due to the Cuban population but they have shown they will not vote for Trump which will decrease Cuban turnout so that is advantage Clinton, why do you focus on Akron (which also has a large black population) and ignore African-American strongholds like Cleveland? Black ppl are absolutely not voting for Trump (or any other republican for that matter), Utah may go blue as the Mormons have no sympathy for ppl bashing minority religions. He loses big among all minorities, he loses big among women. Winning a niche of white male republicans in an extremely fractured republican primary is a whole different beast from winning the presidency. You assume that if he consolidates the Republican votes that will be enough. It won't. Republicans are now constantly fighting against demographics in every general election. I commend him for getting this far, but if he weren't a billionaire he would've run out of money due to lack of funding from the people that drive his party. Not saying it is a lock, but barring a scandal (an FBI indictment from the e-mail thing that all Trumpians are probably dreaming for) Hillary will win and it will be worse than Obama v. Romney.
It's going to be a fucking blowout.
Revisit this thread after the election. If I'm wrong, then throw MS. I haven't even mentioned my personal views. All I have mentioned is what a devastating loss this will be for Republicans.
That should be obvious.
Agree with DickFuld.
Anyone who has any moderate understanding about how the political landscape from primary to general election shapes itself would realize that Trump is not destined to lose...he is destined to get wiped out.
There is a reason why the Republican "leadership" doesn't want Trump. He has no shot of winning and he permanently hurts the party going forward.
this election feels like when I was in my fraternity and nobody wanted to run for president, then at the last minute the guy who was the biggest liability the past 2 years raises his hand...
I'll do it!
[an audible "ohhh fuck...."]
current prez: does anyone BESIDES Phil want to run? maybe somebody who has above a 2.0 GPA and below 2.0 arrests this year?
...
anybody?
[then the dweeby kid who's a legacy raises his hand, he knows damn well he wouldn't have gotten initiated if his dad hadn't let us use his yacht for rush week]
prez: shit, ok so our options are Marvin and Phil...does ANYone else want to run? ANYONE?!
so basically that's how I look at the next 4 years. me essentially realizing there isn't a good option but that it won't affect my life too much (save the catastrophic war). Here's to Paul Ryan/Mitch Daniels 2020, here here!
This election comes down to a handful of states. There will be no landslide on either side. Romney, the Republican savior and lord almighty lost to Obama in comical fashion. He lost Florida and Wisconsin, two states Republicans need to win. If Trump wins FL, Ohio, Wisconsin and VA he can win the election. All those states were narrow wins for Obama and Trump has something Romney doesn't: enthusiasm and a pro-labor message. If you think union workers are going to vote for Hillary (who brought them NAFTA and TPP) you are nuts. Union leadership will endorse her, but workers will not.
This is a populist election. Bernie and Trump are the symptom of a voter base that is upset. This disdain for "uneducated voters" is comical since it is the bulk of this nation and the base of both parties. Trump and Sanders are finally talking to these people who for the longest time now have been maligned. The fact that Sanders has outraised Hillary and continues to win and fight on shows how shitty of a candidate she is. Luckily for her, the Democrat primary is structured in a way to guarantee her winning.
Trump is going to win all the normal republican states. He can now bring purple states into play. The people who envision a landslide are fucking retards. You telling me Mississippi is going to go Democrat?
(http)elections.nbcnews(com)/ns/politics/2012/all/president/
Take a look at this map and tell me which one of those Romney states will become Hillary states because of Trump? None. But you know what? I see a number of states Obama won by a thin margin voting for Trump. After 8 years of stagnant wages, +90MM people not in the labor force (fucking 1/3 or 1/4 of the country depending on population count) and the specter of ISIS and terrorist attacks, I can 100% see Trump winning Florida, Ohio, Wisconsin, Virginia. Additionally, because of Trump being pro labor (which is new for a Republican), Hillary will have to spend time in otherwise easy win states.
Trump because 17 opponents, his own fucking party and the entire media to get this nomination. Every super PAC was against him, he spent jack shit and got into political wars that would have undone any other candidate. And yet everyone STILL thinks he has no chance. You people are BLIND.
Additionally, how about we focus on Hillary. This FBI investigation is beyond just Republicans making an issue of nothing. Hillary's strength is foreign policy, which has been disastrous because of her. She has no economic or job creation experience and her husband gave us NAFTA which isn't real popular in the Ohio/Wisconsin/PA areas of the world. Bernie Sanders has the enthusiasm vote, the college liberal vote, the very votes that gave Obama the election both times. Yes, people will vote for Hillary to prevent Trump from winning, but many more will simply stay home because this election has shown how bullshit the whole process is. Super delegates, delegates being awarded without a vote, party elites fighting the will of the people, etc.
For those people still bringing up that Trump did get over 50% of the Republican vote, shut the fuck up. Talk about being utterly facetious.
1) Trump ran against a large number of people up until the very end (you still have a number of candidates on every ballot).
Nevada and Alabama he got over 40% in a deep field of candidates. 50% in Mass with 5 candidates running. 41% in Louisiana with 4 candidates running. 46% in Florida with 4. 46% in Arizona with 3. Over 50% in the last 7 primaries.
So yes. Trump is getting over 50% of the vote in a field of 3. He was getting in the 40's in a field of 4 and 5. So lets not talk like Trump isn't the nominee, doesn't have the support and isn't a real candidate.
Also, this trash about only idiots vote for Trump is worthless. Simple facts disprove this.
(www).attn(com)/stories/6291/trump-super-tuesday-voters-are-educated
"The business mogul cum Republican presidential frontrunner solidified himself as the GOP top pick in a series of wins Tuesday night, claiming Arkansas, Alabama, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, and Virginia — in most of those states Trump claimed a majority of both self-identifying college educated and postgraduate voters, according to CNN exit polling data."
Trump is getting people from all walks of life to vote for him because he is a populist. Simple.
As for Trump being racist, that is the media's doing. Trump is a NYC liberal. If he is racist then so are all the Hillary supporters. Saying that Mexico isn't sending their best people ILLEGALLY across the border isn't racism, it is fact. Every nation, including Mexica, has borders and enforces this. Good luck trying to illegally immigrate into Mexico.
Additionally, illegal immigration is coming from El Salvador, Honduras, etc. It is flowing through Mexico who doesn't give a shit about stopping it. Mexicans who are here legally (and illegally) have an interest in stopping this flow. Americans of all walks of life have an interest.
It boggles my mind how college liberals can fly the Mexican flag and hate someone for wanting to stop illegal immigration when at the same time they have friends who are Indian, Chinese, Eastern European, etc, who all cannot find visas to work and stay here and who have to go through ridiculous effort to even stay in this country. I guess those people get fucked while those lucky enough to be born next to the US can just come here and stay without an issue.
Furthermore, this fucks African Americans. Illegal immigrants aren't taking banker jobs, but they sure as hell are taking construction jobs, food service jobs, agricultural jobs. Them being in the country allows employers to pay lower wages and not hire US workers. It is exactly what outsourcing does when companies go to China, except service jobs need slave labor imported, which is what illegal immigration is. I'd rather see some of the 90MM people who are working get a living wage work these jobs than someone from an other country.
In conclusion, fuck all of you. Even if Hillary wins, what Trump has done is shown the power of populism. Just as Mussolini gave inspiration to Hitler, Trump will give inspiration to someone next. Populism will win and it will lead. I'd rather have Trump as the populist leader than someone with more principals, without a billion dollar empire to leave to his family, or someone who is more comfortable with using violence to achieve his means.
---- signed by Trump supporter with two masters degrees working in front office finance.
1)Maybe Trump wins, maybe he loses. But I am not going to look at any national polls until the race fully pivots. All those states and polls you listed were heavily fought and contested. As the part coalesces and he gains additional support, endorsements and mends fences you'll see those tighten. Additionally, who Trump picks for VP will be very important.
2) Bernie continues to fight because Hillary hasn't secured the necessary votes to secure the nominee before the convention. Same as Trump right now, although he has a clear path for it. If Sanders could convince those super delegates to support him he could theoretically win. That won't happen, but lets not pretend that Hillary has vanquished this 74 year old communist.
(www).cnn(com)/2016/04/21/politics/2016-bernie-sanders-fundraising-hillary-clinton/
Sanders has matched Hillary in fundraising. Pretty amazing since he is getting so much from individuals.
Hillary's popular vote count is not debatable. But that is what happens when you have a two person primary. Had the Democrats had a field like the Republicans, Hillary would be where Trump is.
3) Yes, the way the Republican party has structured the primary allowed Trump to get where he is. With that said, no other candidate has had to run against everyone, including his own party. You also do not see all the candidates colluding to stop the front runner, with the party support, simply because they don't like Trump.
Also, Trump AND Cruz, both outsiders and hated by the "party" have been the clear winners and choice this year. Bush was the presumptive nominee and would have been slaughtered by Hillary. The people want an outsider and Trump is it. Furthermore, Cruz would have lose the general also. His brand off very religious conservatism doesn't play in the general. Trump is the best candidate of the field. Blame the Republicans for this.
3) We shall see who turns out to vote. I seriously doubt Bernie will fully support Hillary. He will fall in line, but Hillary has a clear enthusiasm gap. The people who elected Obama and who support Hillary are unreliable voters. They get out to vote when they are motivated, but don't show up dutifully every year like each parties core supporters. In an election where Trump has the enthusiasm and bringing first time voters out, while Hillary doesn't have the enthusiasm and first time voters could stay home, things could shift.
Additionally, Paul Ryan will fall in line, as will everyone else. Karl Rove and Bob Dole endorsed Trump. Trump will make a deal with each one of his competitors and everyone else. You're already seeing him moderate, pivot, reach out. This idea that Republican butthurt will allow Hillary to walk away with things is based on lunacy. The Republican party has been frothing for 8 years of Obama. They will come out and vote.
4) You have no clue what you are talking about. I posted a link showing a demographic breakdown of the primaries and they show that Trump gets both high school and below votes as well as college graduates and above.
(www).politico(com)/story/2016/03/5-myths-about-trump-supporters-220158
"Blue-collar voters certainly make up the bulk of Trump’s large coalition, but he is also doing very well among Republicans with college degrees. In six of the statewide GOP exit polls so far, Trump was the most popular candidate among college-educated voters. In another six, he was their second-place choice. (Only in Oklahoma did Trump fall out of the top two among those with college degrees.) A large number of college Republicans count themselves as Trump supporters as well."
And as I said, lower educated voters are the core of both parties. This fact is highlighted as some means of demeaning Trump and his supporters. You never hear about Hillary and her uneducated and poor minority voters.
As for the racial breakdown, this isn't unique to Trump. This is something common among Republican candidates for years. Not sure why we need to even mention that Trump supporters are white, as if that is something bad or wrong. One could say that it is funny how Hillary gets the overwhelming black vote when her husband rolled out welfare reform and crime legislation that impacted those communities the most. But it seems like both parties have their blind and loyal supporters. Except this time around Republicans didn't nominate a candidate who talks about free trade and wages which overwhelmingly fuck Republican voters.
5) Trump isn't racist. He has made comments about women that just about every straight guy has said among his friends. Only in the current environment to rather innocuous comments brand you as a misogynist (which means nothing anymore, just like saying someone is racist. Watered down words).
Trump wants a temporary ban on muslims until we can vet them properly. This is SLIGHTLY more extreme than what the Republicans were proposing (stopping people from Syria, stopping people from a select number of countries, etc). The reason why you need to stop all muslims vs. just a select number of counties is because Islam is in every country. Banning Syrians would have not stopped the Boston bombing for example.
Is this extreme? Maybe. Debate that. But as a nation we have the right to stop all people from immigrating. Up until recently we banned people with HIV from immigrating.
We are at war with radical islam. A global war. A war started by many presidents before and continued and expanded by Obama, Clinton and Kerry. Stopping immigration of muslim people isn't racist. It doesn't mean we hate them. It simply means we need a proper way to vet people who are coming from areas or holding beliefs that could put us at risk. If proper vetting had been done for the wife of the San Bernardino shooting maybe those people who be safe.
Liberal Media. I didn't use that word because Fox News was against Trump. But sure, use it. It has been show that the media has liberal tilt. Additionally, the "news" isn't news anymore. They create it, manipulate it, push what they want. It is entertainment with an agenda.
Trump's "racist" comments were perpetuated by the media who took words out of context. Trump never said "Mexicans are rapists". He never said "All Mexicans are criminals". He said the following:
"When Mexico sends its people, they are not sending their best. They are not sending you. They are not sending you. They are sending people that have lots of problems, and they are bringing those problems with us. The are bringing drugs. They are bringing crime. They are rapists. And some, I assume, are good people."
He is talking about Mexico using our open borders as a way to dump their undesirable people. Similar to what Cuba did in the 80's.
(www)en.wikipedia(org)/wiki/Mariel_boatlift
As for criminal illegal immigrants, see this:
(www)fairus(org)/issue/examples-of-serious-crimes-of-illegal-aliens
Yes, it is a biased site, but it shows you a nice list of serious crimes committed by illegal immigrants, include rape and murder.
(www)cnn(com)/2015/07/03/us/san-francisco-killing-suspect-immigrant-deported/
I put this here as well.
In conclusion, fuck you.
1) do not question my education or intelligence just because I don't support Hillary, Bernie or generic republican.
2) Trump beat Jeb, the chosen candidate that had a war chest or epic proportions. He beat Rubio, the golden boy from Florida and the next establishment candidate. He beat Cruz and Kasich, the tag team duo who stuck around with the sole intention of stopping Trump from getting 1,237. Take a look at the money spent and raised to stop Trump:
(www)nytimes(com)/interactive/2016/us/elections/election-2016-campaign-money-race.html?_r=0
Will Trump crush Hillary? Doubtful. Will he lose? Maybe. But he has accomplished something pretty damn outstanding, in the face of tremendous competition with very few allies.
3) Even if Hillary wins, she is a piece of shit. Biden should have run. Whether she is indicted or not (she won't be), she created this server to avoid FOIA and operate in an utterly shady manner. It isn't surprising that no one before or after her has thought it was kosher creating her own server. And anyone who things it was secure or not used for classified matters is lying to themselves. She is dirty as all hell, untrustworthy a has zero actual beliefs.
Also, you want to call Trump a sexist, how about Bill Clinton. Disgraced the Oval Office and sexually assaulted a number of women.
You're a guy that seems to have done the research to back up his position on electing Trump. But have you ever thought about what might happen on day one when he takes office? What will be his first priority, the Great Wall of Mexico or aiming nukes at Kim Jong-un?
I come from a viewpoint that the President is a cheerleader and a figurehead. Trump has a vested interest in things going calmly. He has a family he loves, an empire all over the world and I honestly think he cares about this country (and ego).
In reality I expect him to complete a border fence, but nothing ridiculous. You can simply enforce the laws on the books and people will naturally stop coming and repatriate back home. Stop giving out drivers licenses to illegal immigrants. Start fining everyone who hires this. Stop letting them disappear and not deporting them. Stop allowing illegal immigrants to go to school, use services.
Keep this in mind before you call me cruel.
1) There are people worse off then the illegal's we have now. If the argument to allow them to stay is going to be based on emotion, then I want every Hatian to move to the USA before we let one mexican or salvadorian in. Hatians have it far worse.
2) What about the poor we already have? What about the unemployment rates for black males? We all pay taxes and follow the rules of this country and we should all benefit. Why are we fucking over US Citizens to help people who don't even follow immigration laws when they come here. And what about the millions of people who do follow these rules.
And before anyone talks about us all being immigrants, remember, people didn't just wash up on the shores of NYC. They went to this place called Ellis Island.
(http)classroom.synonym(com)/process-did-immigrants-through-arrived-ellis-island-late-1800s-9519.html
No one just came here. They were processed, inspected, documented. Just like in every other country.
As for trade, I think having a President who stands up for America will be all we need. Lets get one thing straight. We do not have free trade with other countries. They have it with the USA, but we do not have it with them. Countries protect their domestic industries. This was the reasoning Obama used to bail out the automakers. Trump will use the bully pulpit to demand fair trade and he will protect American workers.
Listen, I understand the economics behind a company relocating, automating, etc. But tell that to a voting American who is losing their job. The tough luck approach is standard Republican and it is why Republicans keep losing. Tell me what a union worker in Michigan has in common with the Democrat party other than they are the only ones who are pro labor. During the crisis you had Republicans saying let GM fail, fuck the unions. That is Romney and McCain. Trump is pro Union.
Presidents can't unilaterally launch nuclear missiles. He cannot unilaterally go to war. Trump isn't a moron. He isn't going to tell Putin to fuck off. This is primary blustering.
Aside from this. Ask yourself this. How well has Clinton, Bush and Obama done. With all their "education" all their calm words, chosen statements, establishment grooming, lobbyist power. How have they done. You worry about Trump going to war. Look at these guys. Endless war. $20T in debt. 90MM out of work. Stagnant wages. A market propped up with endless quantitative easing (that no one knows who to stop or reverse). Homeownership is at multi decade lows. No one respects the US anymore. We have an endless drone war costing billions.
People talk about how Trump will fuel ISIS. You know what fuels ISIS? Drone strikes and collateral damage. Calling every 15 year old killed a "military aged man". Meddling and destabilizing the entire Middle East. Bush and Obama created ISIS. The military industrial complex continues ISIS. Trump does nothing.
Be woke brother. Be woke.
dude at the end of the day your argument comes down to "trump has beaten the odds thus far so he will continue to". I have given you reasons as to why he has and why that does not translate to the general and you've done nothing to dissuade me. Jeb Bush was a Bush, dead in the water. Cruz is an ideologue, the fact he got as far as he did is a testament to how weak the party is right now (same as Trump being nominee). Kasich never stood a chance and Rubio botched his. Your comparison to Trump winning over 50% if it were a 2 person race is wrong, multiple polls showed him losing to Rubio if it were a two person race from the beginning, when being polled as to 2nd choice candidates among those who didn't vote for Trump when the race was fragmented Trump was rarely that choice. Idgaf about a list of crimes committed by illegals, no one is saying illegals don't commit crimes, legals do too. Can you name an immigration policy espoused by Trump that is plausible and will be effective in both reducing current immigration and depleting the number of illegals here now? I cannot. I've noticed Trump supporters rarely talk actual policy, I wonder why that is... The race between Bernie and Hillary has been over for some time, stop acting like it's still a thing, that is intellectually dishonest. Voter turnout will be lower overall (except hispanics, I guarantee they will come out in force against Trump), idgaf how much the GOP has been "frothing" they have not been "frothing" for someone like Trump.
p.s. Trump's numerous trophy wives tells me all I need to know regarding what he thinks of women, I don't need to read his obviously sexist quotes to deem him a misogynist.
According to the Atlantic, 37% of ppl who voted for Trump WITHIN THE REPUBLICAN PARTY have a college education, imagine what that number will be when the college educated democrats (which dems have a slight majority among the college educated) get factored in... and 36% of females... lol that is laughable. He will most likely get less than 25% from both demographics in the general yet you claim he has a good amount of support from the educated, what a joke.
So the essence of your rebuttal is "lol, don't care". What I expected.
1) As I said before, lower educated voters isn't a Trump only phenomena. Trump is winning the Republican primary with more educated voters than his competition. He is beating Cruz and Rubio (when he was in the race) in the educated Republican demographic.
This is pretty simply to understand. Not sure why you choose to move the goal post.
Multiple polls this, multiple polls that. It was never going to be One on One. Unlike the Democrats, Republicans run a field. Rubio was the next best thing when Bush dropped out. So in reality it would have been Bush vs. Trump. There were plenty of primaries where Trump beat the next two combined.
You are correct though that to an extent I am saying Trump has define the odds and will continue to do so. But Trump's movement isn't a fluke. It is what propelled Obama to beat Hillary when she was the preordained candidate back in 2008. It is what fuels Sanders, someone no one has heard off.
This populist upswell isn't favoring Hillary. Democrats win when they get people out to vote. Obama was an outsider candidate with enthusiasm. Sanders is the same. Hillary is Al Gore is John Kerry. Establishment, boring, safe, etc. Republicans run these guys also. McCain and Romney are their names and Obama beat them both (although by less of a margin the second time). This time around Republicans are running an insurgent candidate.
2) I am glad you don't "IDGAF" about illegal crime. The stats were not meant to highlight their criminality, but to provide context for Trumps speech on "Mexican Rapists" that the media took out of context and pushed which has provided this mislabeled "racist" claim.
Trumps policy is simple. Build a wall (actually complete it since we already have hundreds of miles of wall built) and deport people who are here illegally. I am sure he will nuance this with fines for those who hire illegals, actually supporting the border patrol in doing their job and remove federal funding from "sanctuary" cities.
3) "Hispanics" - No Republican is going to beat Democrats on Hispanics. La Raza goes out and spins every illegal immigrant issue as attacking hispanics. Reality is illegal immigration hurts minorities the most, including hispanics. Furthermore, if legal hispanics have an issue with a party trying to stop illegal people from entering then they really aren't much of a citizen are they? But this is besides the point.
(www)pewhispanic(org)/2012/11/07/latino-voters-in-the-2012-election/
(www)pewhispanic(org)/2013/06/03/inside-the-2012-latino-electorate/
So Romney got 27% of the Hispanic vote. I've read Trump polling in the low to mid 20's. Seems about right in line with all the other Republicans.
The issue is three things. 1) How many hispanics are there in important swing states and 2) will they turn out more against him or less for him and 3) can he get more votes from other groups to offset this. I think he will get as many as most republicans get, I think more will be energized to vote against him, but I think he will get more votes to offset them. This includes first time voters who feel passionate about him, independents, union voters, etc.
Also, lets be real. Republicans have been anti illegal immigrants forever now. All the sanctuary cities are in Democrat run cities and states that will most likely be democratic in 2016. Their concentration hurts them in this sense. Also, with voter ID laws and other measures their uproar will be muted. Same with minority voters who typically vote Democrat. Many voter ID laws that were passed right before the 2012 election were shelved until the next election to give people time to get ID's. Those laws will come into play this year.
4) Trump marries attractive women = misogynist. I suppose you only date beat looking women then since you are a paragon of women's rights. I suppose every guy who sleeps with more than one woman hates them and thinks they are inferior.
(www)washingtonpost(com)/politics/donald-trump-a-champion-of-women-his-female-employees-think-so/2015/11/23/7eafac80-88da-11e5-9a07-453018f9a0ec_story.html
His daughter, a woman, is one of his closest advisors and a leader in his firm. Same with the women in the above article. Does this prove he isn't a woman-hater? No, absolutely not. No one can prove he is or isn't. But stop acting like a guy with a hot wife is some mysogynist pig.
But you know who is a mysogynist? Bill Clinton. That is clear. But you don't seem to care about that or Hillary covering his shit up do you. Luckily for Bill, he married a homely looking woman so he cannot POSSIBLY be a mysogynist like Trump.
5) This is the bonus round.
College Attainment in the USA.
Bachelor Degree or higher - 32.5% (population 25 or higher).
The vast majority of this country doesn't have a bachelor degree. I see you think this is an indicator of low quality (except when it people vote Dem). Both parties are built on a voter base of people who didn't go to college. Just because you don't have a 4 year degree doesn't mean you cannot see that this country is not benefitting the common man (or woman). This is why Bernie Sanders has so much support. This is why Trump has support.
(www)npr(org)/2016/02/08/465974199/what-do-sanders-and-trump-have-in-common-more-than-you-think
Both Bernie and Trump have a lot in common. This is why the Republicans hate Trump. Because he is a populist, not a Republican.
Also, shove it bro. You keep bringing up Trump supporters not having a college degree and the talk about how all the hispanics will vote democrat. Guess which groups have the lowest college educational attainment? Hispanics and Blacks, the core of the Democratic Party. So I would probably stop shitting on people who didn't pay $100K for a liberal arts degree and no work in Starbucks.
BTW - 90MM people not in the labor force is a major issue and not simply explained by people retiring. Look at that stat along with where all the job growth is (service industry) and you will see why wages aren't moving and why we are trying to unionize fast food workers. This economy is fucked. Hence why students with debt love Sanders and out of work, blue collar people love Trump.
But guys, Trump will fuel ISIS:
(www)theatlantic(com)/politics/archive/2012/05/under-obama-men-killed-by-drones-are-presumed-to-be-terrorists/257749/
(www)theatlantic(com)/politics/archive/2016/03/the-obama-administrations-drone-strike-dissembling/473541/
Yeah, my ass. Jeb, Cruz, Rubio, Hillary. All fucking traitors to this country who 100% would continue the endless war. Everyone saying how Trump is the enemy. How many people have died because of Hillary's ineptitude.
He guys. The ones that work in a bank. Can any of you send emails to your private email? Can you access your private email on a work computer? We all know it is wrong and you can be fired for it. Yet a grown woman who has spent her entire life in politics, dealt with the FOIA her whole life thinks its kosher to have a private email server.
FYI - you guys might not remember, but Obama demanded to keep his blackberry and it took the NSA moving mountains to allow it and secure it. Seems like the President understands why you can't have your own damn phone for no reason.
(http)money.cnn(com)/2014/05/22/technology/security/nsa-obama-blackberry/
Hillary knew better. She did this shit for nefarious purposes. She plays dumb. Utterly unfit to be President. I hate Sanders and what he stands for, but Hillary is a criminal.
Please Democrats, draft Biden. Hillary is the worst candidate.
Yea dude, you're ranting. This is the reason I should've stopped on this thread with my first post. The facts speak for themselves, the numbers speak for themselves, and in the general, the electoral college will speak for itself. Yelling about "fucking traitors" and "Hillary being the worst candidate" will do nothing to change that. As for your diatribe on the economy, EU is going through further recession and China's growth has slowed substantially yet the U.S. is growing which we would've thought impossible just 3 yrs ago. While the boomers do not explain all of that 90MM number, college students as well as the boomers explain a good amount of that. It seems to me that, regarding the economy, Trumpians/Berners think if they keep yelling THE SKY IS FALLING, it will actually fall. The numbers do not support that argument. How has Obama done? Judging by his approval rating in the most polarized political environment of the past quarter century (which is now above Reagan's when he left office(49%)) , quite fucking well.
For furthter context on the economy: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/this-years-college-grads-are-the-lu…
regarding the LFPR: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-job-market-is-pulling-in-people…
regarding Trump "bringing factories back to America": http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/manufacturing-jobs-are-never-coming…
It isn't a rant. It is me addressing each one of your points, backing it up with sources and you coming back with weak shit responses and moving the goal post.
1) Labor Force Participation - Comical response. So now it isn't retirees, but retirees AND college grads. You really don't have a clue.
(http)data.bls(gov)/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet
Here is the BLS data. We are at lows not seen since 1978, In the 50/60/70's the low rate can be attributed to women staying at home to work. The increase is driven by the economy and women entering the work force. What you see from 2002 to current is an economy collapsing with low wage jobs replacing it. People exited the labor force during the recession and never returned. If you remember how many times unemployment benefits were increased you can see the start and culmination of a weak economy.
Growth - Do you know the components of GDP growth? Just because we are "growing" when others aren't doesn't mean anything for the average person.
(http)research.stlouisfed(org)/datatrends/net/page6.php
Last two quarters, inventories and exports are down. Last quarter investments were near zero, turning negative this quarter. Consumption and Government is what is keeping things going. Consumption fuel on credit.
(www)cnbc(com)/2016/01/15/a-recession-worse-than-2008-is-coming-commentary.html
"But most importantly, even if one were to concede financial institutions are less leveraged; the startling truth is that businesses, the federal government and the Federal Reserve have taken on a humongous amount of additional debt since 2007. Even household debt has increased back to its 2007 record of $14.1 trillion. Specifically, business debt during that time frame has grown from $10.1 trillion, to $12.6 trillion; the total national debt boomed from $9.2 trillion, to $18.9 trillion; and the Fed's balance sheet has exploded from $880 billion to $4.5 trillion."
Household debt has increased back to 2007 highs. Debt fueling consumption.
Flat Wage Growth
(www)pewresearch(org)/fact-tank/2014/10/09/for-most-workers-real-wages-have-barely-budged-for-decades/
This is a little old, but still relevant. Wages have been and are flat.
(www)zerohedge(com)/news/2016-05-06/2014-us-has-added-450000-waiters-and-bartenders-and-no-manufacturing-workers
While zerohedge is a permabear mecca, the charts are pulled from the BLS. Service industry jobs are fueling the growth. Hence why college grads are pissed, laid off factory workers are pissed and wage growth isn't moving. It is also why you are seeing service industry workers try and unionize and the minimum wage is becoming a trigger point.
(www)pewresearch(org)/fact-tank/2014/09/08/who-makes-minimum-wage/
This is interesting. About 50% of the people making minimum wage are over the age of 25. These people are working full time. These are displaced workers greeting people at WalMart. Making burgers at McDonalds. These are the people that get on disability for an ever increasing rage of illnesses and drop out of the labor force.
I am glad you free 538. Good site. I read it as well. But it isn't the bible and your links do not dispel anything I am saying.
1) Obama's Approval Numbers - Who cares? Bush was at 50% up until a year before the collapse. Obama has more than doubled the national debt, we are still in a myriad of conflicts, Obamacare is a massive tax on americans and kick back to insurers. Foreign relations are worse than ever (he was supposed to make us loved again) and the economy is not structurally sound.
Furthermore why are you dick riding Obama? We are discussing Trump. Also, apparently the 20MM people who have voted for Trump and Sanders don't think things are A OK.
I am starting to question your education with these half assed, ill researched answers. Parroting 358 is a lot different from actually understanding the situation. I shouldn't have expected much more from an Obama and Hillary voter. lol
Jesus, do you even read the links you post? LOL.
"a big chunk of it was due to the terrible economy: People couldn’t find jobs, so they quit looking. "
"But most of the people who left the labor force during the recession have found other ways to get by, relying on a spouse or family member’s income, retiring earlier than planned or working off the books. "
Or more like people went on disability...
https://www.ssa.gov/oact/STATS/dibStat.html
3.4MM increase in people on SS Disability. Hmmmm, I wonder if this has something to do with participation rates, low growth, people leaving the work force...
"In other words, the people entering the labor force today aren’t necessarily the same people who left it during the recession. For one thing, the new entrants tend to be young: The biggest increase in the participation rate over the past three months has been among those under 25. Many are just finishing school and entering the labor force for the first time."
Key word is graduating and entering the labor force.
Key group - College graduates. They enter with high debt and low wages. Result - Sanders supporters.
"But one group that hasn’t made much progress: older, less-educated Americans, especially men. That group has seen a long-term decline in employment that stretches back well before the recession, and it has made little gain recently. "
Key Word - Older, less educated Americans
These people are Trump supporters. They support someone who talks about bringing jobs back to the US. Someone who is pro American in trade. Someone who cares about this portion of the population, unlike Obama who thinks people need to get rid of their guns and bibles.
There are few simple assertions made that lead me to believe MomMom445 got his two Master's degrees at the University of Phoenix (Or Trump U?).
1) Thinking that building a wall does anything. Like you have to be borderline retarded to think a wall does anything. I mean, I can't even. Ask yourself: If this was such a clear solution and it only cost $3B, why didn't GWB do it?
2) Saying the Obama is bad because wages haven't grown, the debt has doubled, and more people are on minimum wage than ever. As if a) The president can actually control these things unilaterally and b) Your diatribe sounds more like an argument against capitalism than the political system.
3) Your defense of Trump's racist/sexist/xenophobic comments. This proves either a) The comment are indeed racist/sexist/xenophobic or b) Trump is worse at communicating in the English language than an illegal immigrant. Why else would he need an internet troll to pull quotes and analyze them to disprove the face-value assertion that they are racist/sexist/xenophobic.
Some other points that prove you are not as educated as you think you are.
1) One does not demand fair trade. Either you impost tariffs and quotas and subsidize domestic businesses, or you don't. Either way, it doesn't marginally reduce trade deficits. Furthermore, we actually do the most trade manipulation in the world, by design and beneficial to us. We control the world's reserve currency. We borrow dollar from every country including China, devalue it, get the present value of imported goods, and pay back debts in future value of additionally depreciated currency.
2) Obama is not the best president...but he is nowhere near as bad as you think he is. I don't think you understand what the President's job is. The very same things that you are pissed off at him for (low wages, stagnant wages, etc.) would be solved by the exact opposite policies you likely stand for. Also, he came in with $1T+ deficient (There is this thing called declining taxes and increased distributions that happens when an economy crashes and everyone loses their jobs...the president doesn't control it). He actually made it better by letting parts of Bush's tax cuts expire and withdrawing troops from Iraq.
3) Again, most of your comments and gripes are against capitalism, not the political system. Not saying that's a wrong position, but it gets annoying to read the rants of a person that directs them at the wrong topic.
oh, almost forgot 4.
4) You think Trump can actually address any of the things you are pissed off about.
1) Walls slow the flow of illegal immigrants. See Hungary and their wall and the drop in migrants crossing into Hungary. We already have a wall. One that is incomplete. Additionally, as I said before, a wall must be combined with policies to force people to repatriate and never come here to begin with. I never said a wall is the only thing.
2) Bush got blamed for the financial collapse, yet he didn't invent CDS's, he didn't force banks to lend to people with bad credit, etc. President gets the glory and takes the blame. It is the presidents job to push for a better economy, push for wage growth, push for more people in the labor force.
3) I posted the link to his speech. Trump didn't say Mexican's are rapists. And people quote, misquote, take statements out of context, etc. The news does this all the time. Context and historic precedent is important to fully understand something.
It doesn't really matter though. Racist, bigot, sexist, they all have no meaning. How come no one talks about the KKK endorsing Hillary? How come CNN runs a special on the KKK when in reality the group is nothing but a couple hundred at most? It is all an agenda.
But I suppose saying a country allows less than desirable people to illegally immigrate into the USA makes you a racist. I suppose dating models makes you a sexist.
4) An openness of an economy can be controlled by the government in many instances (China). The threat of a tariff can open a market or make things more fair. As for quotas and tariffs, we already do it to protect certain industries or products. We can do it again. We can also let it be known to US companies that going overseas can have a cost. Kind of like what Obama did with corporate inversion.
5) I never said Obama was the worst president in history. I think he is a very bad one. I think his poor performance transcends economic or policy issues. Race relations are at all time lows, in part to Obama and the environment he has created. I think the fact he lied to the American public to get Obamacare passed is pathetic. His foreign policy has been disastrous. I could go on and on, but why.
6) We do not operate with full capitalism. So I know full well what drives wages and job growth. Unchecked capitalism creates winners and losers. Since losers tend to be more numerous and also able to vote we have a hybrid form of capitalism.
Furthermore, I personally have no gripe with anything. I am explaining the phenomena that is occurring. I am saying that Trump, with his pro American message and policy that straddles both parties, has a very serious chance at winning. I am saying that Hillary is a weak candidate and that Sanders enjoys the excitement and momentum that Obama had when he got first elected. I am laying out my argument why I think people are angry, why they have been drawn to these insurgent candidates and why discounting Trump is foolish.
7) I think Trump can address many things. I think stopping and correcting the illegal immigration issue will allow more people to enter the work force. I think wages will rise when you remove 12MM illegal people who depress wages. I think Trump will push for policy in ways that will benefit Americans.
I see Trump as a pro business Democrat. Dems make me sick with their social issues. Reps make me sick with their social issues. Trump is the answer to this. He doesn't give a shit about trannies using a bathroom or gays marrying. He isn't religious. Doesn't give a shit about abortion. He is pro America and is internally focused. A vote for any establishment candidate is a vote for endless foreign wars, bad trade deals and a country that isn't respected globally.
In conclusion. Suck my dick.
The name-calling is so childish I don't even know what to do with it. I am "dickriding" Obama because I responded to you bringing him up? Are you a troll? You've been a member here since 5/6, I somehow don't believe that ... you must have a main account and you're not even using your anonymous main account to espouse your views, that says it all.
Wow, so now you're spinning quotes to fit your narrative although that narrative wasn't the point of the story.. holy shit. From the same article:
"Rather, the improving job market is pulling people off the sidelines and into the labor force. They might be stay-at-home parents who decide to go back to work, students who take on a part-time job or early retirees who decided to supplement their retirement income.
All of that is good for the economy. In one particularly encouraging sign, the recent rise in participation has been concentrated among those without a college degree, a group that has particularly struggled in recent years. That suggests the tightening job market is leading employers to consider candidates they might otherwise have rejected."
Main point: economy improving, job mkt tightening, more non-college education ppl finding work. Yet you somehow try and spin it to your narrative, I'm done responding bro.
You never started responding. Each additional post was more and more worthless.
Plain fact is labor force participation is at lows unseen in decades. People have left the workforce and job growth is in low paying service industry. If you think that is a booming economy I can't help you.
And yes, quoting approval ratings and using superficial economic measures to support how great Obama has been is called dickriding.
Gotta love Bob just reposting his initial shit post that I systematically refuted, line by line.
So many non woke bros on this site. Dickriding Hillary and Obama. Sad.
I haven't read any of the past 30 posts in this thread but I'm sure they will shape this country for years to come
@MomMom445
This is what is creepy to me. Trump on China from "donaldjtrump.com":
The Trump Plan Will Achieve The Following Goals:
1. Bring China to the bargaining table by immediately declaring it a currency manipulator.
In other words, call China out to a playground fight. China is a masculine and prideful country. You do this, they're never going to come to the negotiation table.
If you go read his site, all of his proposals or 'ideas' are just bullying other countries.
If you're in investment banking, do not expect deals to be in high volumes if the dollar falls dramatically because of geopolitical risks under a Trump Administration.
1) Investment Banking deals were done before we had a weak dollar. In fact, the US used to have a "strong dollar" policy before the Bush administration stopped using that term.
Deals will get done in a strong currency market and a weak currency market.
2) Trump calling China a currency manipulator.
You do realize that China has been called out on that before Trump. By "seasoned" politicians.
jewishbusinessnews.(com)/2014/07/09/china-pushing-back-secretary-lews-accusations-of-currency-manipulation/
"Treasury Secretary Jack Lew, who is planning to attend the U.S.- China Strategic and Economic Dialogue (S&ED) conference that started on Tuesday in Beijing, has been accusing the Chinese government of engaging currency manipulator, stopping just short of actually using this explosive term.
Lew, who is in Beijing with Secretary of State John Kerry, has joined other Treasury officials in saying the Chinese yuan is undervalued, and that Chinese officials must liberalize the currency, mostly by leaving it alone."
Here is Lew doing what you fear. Here is Kerry calling Bush out on not cracking down on China. Of course his tune changed the second Obama was elected and Kerry became his puppet.
(www)articles.latimes(com)/2004/apr/27/nation/na-trade27
"Sen. John F. Kerry said Monday he would more aggressively enforce trade agreements than the Bush administration, without reversing the nation's commitment to promoting free international commerce.
During a stop here, he also pledged to crack down on currency manipulation by China and Japan."
So very interesting. You have a Democrat who is now advocating for open borders essentially sounding EXACTLY LIKE TRUMP.
Here are a few other gems from Kerry:
"I am going to stand up for the American worker and fight to have the American worker have an even playing field to compete on."
Analysts said Kerry's proposals appeared to be carefully crafted to appeal to key constituencies -- such as small manufacturers and organized labor, which blame NAFTA and China for much of the job loss of recent years -- without straying too far from the pro-trade agenda favored by most of the business community and many centrist Democrats.
In the Wheeling speech, Kerry outlined steps he said he would take as president "to engage and win in the global economy."
They included his call for tougher action to get Japan and China to allow their currencies to gain value and stop leaving U.S. exports "at a serious price disadvantage," his promise for stepped-up enforcement of trade agreements and his plan for giving the U.S. greater latitude to impose trade sanctions.
Wow. A Democrat demonizing trade and standing up for American workers. Talking about China manipulating their currency. Blaming NAFTA and China for job loss. WOW.
Holy fuck. The world is going to end if Trump is elected. He might actually put in place policy that Kerry and other Democrats have been talking about for years. Have to vote for HIllary then. God knows the world would end if Trump is elected.
LOLOLOLOLOL. So sad and pathetic who un-woke people are. Cannot even remember shit said by politicians less than a decade ago.
BTW. Bring on the Monkey Shit. Nothing I love more than intelligently arguing with supposedly other "intelligent" people, backing up my opinions with supporting material and getting shit on. If only I was unaware and had blind beliefs maybe the wise wall streeters on this forum would reward me. LOL.
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