Should I renege MBB to go back to SWE?

in very similar boat. the frame i'm looking at it is: where do I think i will grow the most? MBB definitely seems more out of my comfortable zone so perhaps it might be worth

Tbh I think the main reason you would go to MBB is because it's less risky.

1. Tech in general is really volatile, and a startup is even more-so. There's no telling when or if the AI bubble will burst or if some other part of the economy blowsup and takes silicon valley with it. This is even more true at a Startup where your salary and value of your equity is contingent on the next funding round which can evaporate in a heartbeat.
2. I personally have less confidence in the medium-term viability of SWE vs. MBB as jobs. AI's pace of innovation might surpass your level of skill at any point making your job redundant. While a lot of the menial skills of consulting will become automated (Slides, Market Research, Frameworks, etc.), consulting's value prop is bigger than just that. It's a cover-your-ass tax, it's a convenient scapegoat, it's an outside perspective, it's a helpful resource for large projects (e.g. post-merger integrations), and it's getting ahead of the AI curve (an extraordinary number of cases are now being sold with some AI aspects).
3. MBB preserves the opportunity to re-pivot into tech with a product manager role. It should be quite easy for you to pivot into a PM role at a top-tech company with your technical background.

I was in the same boat (did all my college internships in tech but at MBB right now) and here are my two cents:

• Development at MBB will be far superior than any tech job. SWE pigeonholes the skills you learn to one industry whereas at MBB you will truly develop a career agnostic toolkit. Your career is long and it seems like you aren't/weren't in love with SWE (otherwise you would have returned to your prior company rather than re-recruit). So professionally, it is more advantageous to build a skillset that will carry over through your career. These are the early years of your career, and IMO you should strive to be challenged and pushed out of your comfort zone. MBB will do that a lot more so than SWE.
• In terms of your argument about hours - if you want to climb the ranks fast in SWE you will also be putting in 40+ hour weeks. Yes, you can coast at ~30-35hrs and make decent money (~200K-300K TC), but if you want to see the salary growth you outlined, you still need to put the work in as a SWE. Sure, you might get lucky with stock appreciation, but you cannot rely on that to be sustained throughout a 40yr career. You seem to want a "chill life" AND work less. If you want a right-tail outcome you have to put in right-tail effort, regardless of industry. I have many friends at FAANG and Big Tech has deviated from the cushy COVID days - putting in 40hrs/week while being a high performer is now the exception, not the rule.
• Regarding PE - yes it has gotten more crowed over the past 5 years, but you shouldn't make this decision because you're scared to compete. Competition is inevitable if you want to make the type of money you seem to want to make. Even in SWE, at the higher levels, each promotion gets harder and harder and you'll have to compete to get to the salary band you want. If you put in the work and a PE seat is something you truly want, it is more than achievable from MBB.
• If you truly only care about your career earnings when making this decision, I think SWE is the "safer option" in the sense that (assuming you reneged on a FAANG+ offer) your median lifelong earnings will be higher in SWE than MBB. However, starting your career at MBB will, in my opinion, open many more right-tail outcomes compared to SWE, unless you are starting as an AI engineer. MBB will open doors to right-tail outcomes such as UMM/MF PE, C-Suite Positions, etc. The only right tail outcomes that SWE offers is the startup route, which is honestly super volatile and also still accessible from MBB to an extent (typically less equity though).
• AI risk is present in both industries. Think the impacts on consulting have been a bit over-pushed and exaggerated to fear-monger. Especially in MBB, consulting is an industry that thrives when there is uncertainty and change. That is exactly the environment we are in. Going into tech likely does provide more insulation to AI risk, but as another commenter said, it is certainly not 0 - who nows if/when the bubble will burst and spill out onto the industry. Regarding the upside of AI, you can just as well ride the AI momentum within/exiting from MBB. Specialize in AI cases at MBB or exit to PM or exit to an AI startup.

Overall, the responses on this thread will obviously be consulting-biased, but I'd give serious thought to this decision. You can go MBB to Big Tech (maybe not SWE), but the other way around is extremely rare unless you get an MBA. There is a reason that is the case.

I would go do SWE if you’re really good at it. If you can get in now and develop skills that can’t be replaced by AI, you can potentially make a shit ton of money over the next few years if you land at the right startup. Like I know 25 year olds that have multi million $ pay packages. If you’re not good at SWE though then you might be part of the group that gets screwed by AI and then have trouble finding a job down the line (but it’s a huge benefit that you already have something lined up, as the most difficult part of the SWE career I’ve seen for friends recently is landing a job out of college given the elimination of a lot of these entry level positions).

Also if your main concern in WLB and hours, MBB, while better than IB, it’s definitely still grindy. As another poster mentioned, you will consistently be working 9am-9pm+. Culture might be better than banking but those are long hours if you’re not used to it and want to be doing other things with your free time. And if you could be working 35-40 hours and making more money lol.

PM me, in a similar boat (CS major starting MBB soon)

Lord I thought he was returning to Sweden. You learn something new every day.

The thread is full of horrible takes. MBB is going nowhere, a lot of firing in recent years. Unless you are top-5% in sales and can rise to partner fast and enjoy it - don't bother. Don't forget constant travel in 80% of cases. PE is also overcrowded and tough to exit from consulting. 

If you are confident in your SWE skills you can get to 1m$ a year in 7-8 years in companies like OpenAi 

At OpenAI, for the most part, you need to have more than just generic SWE skills -- you need AI skills (and probably the more niche genAI training or infrastructure skillset). Most SWE'S don't have this, which is why they and the other big AI heavy hitters are paying $1 million TC to the small subset who do.

MBB consultant, 60+ hour weeks are no joke. It's not just a job choice it's a lifestyle. You don't have time for hobbies or meeting friends during the week (exercise only comes with accepting ~6 hours of sleep). Outside looking in, it seems great to make more money and work less as an SWE. That being said, I'm early career and can't speak to exits.