Looks like they lost another double digits in september bringing them to down 71% this year and now have underperformed s&p by a ton.
http://www.haydencapital.com/wp-content/uploads/H…
This is worse than Tiger and they don’t really have a track record. How are they solvent still given they have daily redemptions? is the strategy literally just hold until rates are flat?
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It’s just one guy and an interactive broker account
Horrible risk management and complete disregard of valuation/rate environment. Can’t tell if its a lack of common sense or just misalignment of incentives given he probably pocketed a fair amount of perf fees in prior years.
anyone know how Fred's buddy Shawspring is doing YTD?
Bump - also curious on Shawspring.
Know a guy who works @ Shawspring.
Dennis got hit hard as well. Down between 55%-65% from his exposure to China and Asia.
A lot of these tech focused funds who kicked ass over the last 10yrs are now getting absolutely shafted in this drawdown..
So many of these hyper concentrated funds getting their faces ripped off in the current environment. CAS Investment Partners another one looks to be down 70% from highs
Saga Partners is down 75% which is insane
Is it? All of these 2015-2017 cohort "value" funds were simply riding niche tech / growth stuff based on an incremental margin thesis with little regard for actual cash flows or interest rate sensitivity. Look at what this Saga guy was talking about end of '20 (his peak). Teladoc, Roku, GoodRx, Carvana, Trupanion, The Trade Desk, and Facebook. The average total return of these names since end of '20 is nearly -75% - his fund is down nearly 80% since '20. How he (and all these other guys) managed to neglect risk management all the way down (and up?) baffles me. I guess you can absolve yourself of poor performance if you just write 25 pages on value investing and show an IRR graph of buying at $0.25 and selling at $1.00. But I don't find any of this surprising for what they owned.
I definitely agree with you and you have a valid point. Can't call yourself a hedge-fund if you totally disregard risk, furthermore, can't necessarily call yourself a Value Investor by investing stocks like these, trading a 300x EV/EBITDA and No cash flows etc.. However, don't you think that coming out of this drawdown, these funds are positioned for explosive returns? Look at what happens when the market rallies and "risk-on" appetite is re-ignited - all of these companies are up 10%-12% a day.
I'm not making an argument for them, I'm just playing devils advocate - In the dotcom, everybody said value is coming back and tech is dead - tech performed the best (along with financial services). After the GFC, everybody said, value is back and tech is dead - proceeded to enter as 12 yr long tech bull-run. 2020 tech absolutely crushed everything. 2022 - everybody is saying stay away from tech and it's dead. It's entirely possible that coming out of this we're likely to repeat what previously occurred in other crashes.
Say what you want but realistically, if you could re-wind the clock 20yrs and you had to pick one company to hold, it'll likely be a tech company - or Monster.
The money management business doesn't work like that. These guys have had 70%+ drawdowns; they won't be managing money going forward, or at least none other than their own and friends / family. You need to be up 233% to get back to your high water mark after a 70% drawdown. Your "10-12% a day when "risk on"" is just beta and not special. A lot of these companies just don't work without 0% interest rates. It not even about tech vs. non-tech like you say; this is about cash flows vs cash burn.
so much a meritocracy, turns out hedge funds are just like every other industry - you do well when you have rich family/friends who have money for you to gamble with
Those are just the people who have gamed the system. Look at the top funds out there that have been around for decades (citadel, DE Shaw, etc), they are doing very well this year. There is a difference between real alpha and levered beta (or super concentrated bets). The “good” funds know that risk management is a real job that requires a lot of work and investment.
Looks like he removed his prior letters and performance results from his website.
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