Move to different SM or MM?

Comp hasn’t been great in the past 2 years at my SM (>$5bn AUM) despite being in a risk taking seat and owning PnL (TC 300k - 500k). Fund performance has also been good. Did 1 year banking, 4 year HF. Moving to 5th year now and don’t expect comp to move much - not off to a great year with how things have been.
 

Trajectory to being a senior analyst / PM in the current construct at my SM is bleak (usual low turnover / politics BS). I’m torn between moving to another SM for hopefully better comp, or taking the plunge to an MM. Have had good years behind me but still not confident enough to swing it on my own at an MM as I think bad years are inevitable at some point.
 

I’m young with no family responsibilities so technically I can afford to take the risk. But some part of me thinks it could be worth it to do SM for a longer time, and only make the move when you’re more senior? It feels like analysts and PMs bear the same downside risks in terms of getting fired but PMs keep much more upside so is that an argument to delay the jump? Though not even sure if there’s a path to PM if you’re hanging too long at an SM. Junior guys that get blown out at an MM - wtf do you do then? Guys who have made the jump - what made you comfortable? 
 

Edit: doesn’t help that most SMs are doing shit now