Not sure what to do with my life...
Will try to keep this as brief as possible but happy to provide more detail to anyone...
Wrapping up two years in IB finally and looking for my next move. Not necessarily interested in more corporate jobs or at least those that involve a ton of modeling (PE, Corp Dev, etc).
However, I do really like the public markets and have always had a passion for staying on top of events and news in the macro world. I also enjoy trading personally but am not a very quantitative or math-oriented person so that may cut trading out (please correct me if wrong though in this line of thinking, would think most trading roles today left are highly math and code dependent).
With regards to HFs, I do love the idea of creating a thesis, researching and defending said thesis but not sure I want a life ahead of continuing to be buried in models and excel. I also personally am not the biggest fan of individual stock-picking based on fundamentals or research. I know it will be frowned upon on here, but I personally have found more success/enjoyment using technical analysis and simple momentum rather than try to tear apart a 10-K and transcripts in the hopes of getting an edge. Again, I apologize in advance if this sounds very naive.
All that to say, I feel very lost and am having trouble deciding on what I should do. It seems like my standards for a role are maybe just unrealistic and said job doesn't exist. My original rationale was that from this post-IB point and onwards, I should only do something that I actually enjoy doing. However, this may not be realistic/lead to low pay. Perhaps I should just accept a job for being a job and pursue something like a traditional HF and take advantage of being a "fresh" IB analyst in the eyes of recruiters before going off the beaten path...
Apologies if this rambled at all and happy to chat further with anyone.
Thank you all.
I am lost in your train of thought too, so well done
Youwant to be a tik tok day trader based on what you described. Good luck.
Not sure anyone here will ever be able to give good advice on "what you want to do" because that is for you to uncover. My take has always been its not just about pursuing "your passion" but that you should also pursue something you are good at, as once you excel at something and start to master it / truly understand the game you are playing, it drives the passion and becomes a virtuous cycle. Take playing the piano for instance - you start off with chopsticks and its a monotonous grind, but eventually someday you master the basics and a whole new world of improvisation and creation opens up to you - the game really presents itself and you strive for greatness. Cheesy I know, but think every "boring" career there is, and ask yourself how many people were truly passionate about industrial gases (actually a sweet biz) or corrugated paper boxes or being a tax lawyer.
So I think you need to take a deep and honest look at yourself and understand what specifically you enjoy about your work and also where you think your strengths are, and then explore what fields line up with that. Why do you like technical analysis - is it more about the perception of being a trader + fast money or is there a true love for the markets in there? Do you find yourself particularly adept at any of the core skills and why? What are those strengths and weaknesses?
As a side note, it is interesting you say you like researching but hate modeling, because as part of the research process I really enjoy getting in the weeds with a model because it can be core to learning about how the company operates through cycles and growth. Model is less about the physical output and more about what it teaches you along the way and how you flex it. Doesn't mean it has to be a 2k line model in granular detail, but just going through the historicals there is a rich story there tied to the fundamentals that is worth uncovering.
No offense but it sounds like you like the idea of the markets at a CNBC talking head level analysis vs. the actual work of a hedge fund.
Well all-jokes aside, what roles are those people on TV coming from? May sound silly, but that means such a job *does* exist (even if we view it as not providing much alpha or useful info)...and if they can do it I think I should be able to aim for it?
you need to be a MD/partner at a consulting firm or IBD bro
Maybe hop over to ER or IR
You don't have to love your job - doing something you tolerate can be rewarding enough - the highs and lows will average out.
Let me give you some advice: no one wants to pay for ideas based upon technical analysis. If you're not inquisitive enough to ask what's driving price and don't have the know-how to disaggregate it for subsequent analysis, you should question whether a career in public markets is the right fit.
It sounds like you are burnt out and may need a break or career switch. Have you considered wealth management or venture capital?
Thank you for the advice. Even though it's not what I wanted to hear I'll take it to heart especially as it appears you are a PM. It may sound very naive, but I do believe I've developed a good overall market "strategy" using indicators based on market internals (breadth, cross-asset correlations, credit spreads, etc.) and not just simple lagging price-action based TA that you may so often hear about.
I suppose for individual securities is where the really deep-dive fundamental analysis becomes important rather than the technicals I mentioned above which work on broad market trends.
I have and am definitely considering something like Wealth Management. Just not sure how dependent that will be on generating "sales" or building a client-base at a young age. Also, to be completely frank, I do fear if I will regret "taking a step backwards" from IB into such a role (I know that sounds a bit rude/bad but it is an honest thought). Not sure if you would ever be up for it and completely understand if not, but would be happy to chat sometime.
Let me guess - your strategy is BTFD and HODL with extra steps
Describe your edge.
There are fundamentals of broad market trends too. For example, if you scour ETF and Index fund documents, you'll find rebalance schedules which play a big role in volume seasonality. Market liquidity, by analyzing flows and bank (central bank and reserves) balance sheets, IORBs, RRP, and others have a significant impact on how volume interacts with price. Market microstructure, such as how funds trade equities and options, can create structural imbalances to exploit. Finally, understanding market catalysts and how they impact the path of flow (volumes) and price (imbalances) is probably the most important and is largely qualitative. Fundamentals = underlying drivers. Technicals = nominal output.
Be inquisitive.
Join real estate, the modeling is easy and you build / defend theses all day.
Everyone acts like TA isn’t used at hedge funds... Maybe not by analysts, but a lot of PMs use it extensively at both L/S and macro funds. Walk past their desks on the trading floor and you’ll find some esoteric indicators on some screens. OP’s realization that he’s a better momentum trader than one to read a succession of 10-K’s should be acknowledged instead of dismissed… they’ve discovered their style.
But without a track record and other nuances to one’s strategy, one won’t be anywhere near running money at those shops. So if you’re dedicated to this path, maybe join a discretionary prop desk that’s well funded like FNYS or Gelber group. Alternatively look at crypto trading which is currently mostly quant/ arbitrage and TA driven (but even here coding is a huge advantage). And finally, see if you want to do something else like fintech startups and work on your trading research at night.
I think the point is that TA isn't used in isolation. The PMs making those quick calls with TA have been following the sector for years and know the ins and outs of the business models, and have a quick intuition for how the street looks at these names already - that only comes from years of previously diving deep on the businesses and having a good sense of what the key drivers are and how the names tend to trade. They also have a roster of analysts debriefing them on the fundamentals every step of the way. So I think it would be an unfair characterization to say that PMs are trading these names on little else than TA (while even though on the surface it might appear that way). But that is just my interpretation and I haven't worked at a MMHF. The other side, is that there is no real path anymore for someone who just wants to swing from the seat of their pants on equity trades based on TA - I'm sure there are some legacy prop desk guys who are still established today and switched to multi-strats, but I feel like few PMs are willing to hire someone for that due diligence because, as there seems to be little value add to another set of eyes just watching these indicators and nothing else, and so the only path in is to really get deep on the names and understand the fundamentals first (as a typical analyst), before playing the market neutral sentiment and trading game.
Thank you for your response. So from my understanding of what you have described, it's best to pursue the traditional HF Research Analyst role and then later on down the line develop into a more TA/less company-specific fundamental side? As in it's unrealistic to go directly into a TA / broad market strategist role without first having gone through fundamental investing experience?
You need real help and advice, and likely not from WSO. Take a vacation and clear your head. Right now you're just rambling to online strangers who have no idea who you are.
Maybe you'd like being a quant, in which case you need completely different skillsets from 2 years of investment banking.
I would have said VC, but that's not going to fulfill your public markets itch. If being in the public markets isn't a strict criteria, definitely go for VC. It satisfies pretty much all of the other stuff you mentioned.
Respectfully, developing a career around the idea of momentum trading while not having strong math fundamentals does not sound like a winning formula. A thesis can’t be “I feel it in my plums”
Ignore all the spiteful messages above. My reaction to your post was maybe this person should check out technical analysis. If you’re a PM and not taking TA into account you’re missing a significant contributor of market flow. Support levels, bands etc are real. The entire retail market is a significant driver of the market and 99% of those retail traders do their research by just ‘looking at the chart’.
I genuinely don’t know if it is/profitable in the LT to do that. But at least on the research side, I see so many sales comments, research notes, macro comments with TA incorporated.
Also, the math at HFs isn’t hard. You don’t need to be that good at math in my opinion, just as long as you enjoy thinking about numbers all day
Thank you for the comment. I appreciate it. How would you recommend breaking into such a niche role or is the best way more so to pursue the traditional HF Research Analyst role and then later on down the line develop into a more TA/less company-specific fundamental side? It seems from the comments above that there's little way to go directly into a TA / broad market strategist role without getting into the weeds as a traditional HF research analyst first...almost like a right-passage?
Think you're overstating how much retail traders move markets. They certainly can move them (WSB shorts squeezes) but retail isn't moving the needle on stocks like AAPL, MSFT, etc.
To be honest it sounds like you might be interested in fixed income/rates sales. This is basically Ryan Gosling in the big short (he was more prime brokerage sales but not important). You do need to be on top of markets and follow things, and the more you actually know the more your clients will respect you. This might actually be an easy transition from IB. I work on a rates desk (not in sales, but it checks a ton of boxes based on your post) and it seems like it might be what your looking for.
Really appreciate this and I'm interested. Just to confirm my understanding, this is a role within the Sales & Trading division of a bank but within the "Sales" portion? It's distinct from being a trader on the desk (like I'm assuming you are)? I would be interested in making transition and agree that I would think it would be an easy transition...if you don't mind may I PM you? Thanks
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