parisbudhndrx

makes me feel good, position: 230 shares at 75..... thinking about doubling position here

If average is 75 then might as well add some here imo, idk about doubling down though 

I’m at 800+ shares at mid/high 50s basis, pray for me 

 

I’m buying QQQ calls that expire in two years. For some reason I feel more comfortable doing that

 

There's certainly a chunk of unprofitable, high-growth tech companies that have similarities with 2000 crash which have all come back down to earth over the last 6 months. It's tough to see the overall landscape playing out like it did 20 years ago... large cap tech stocks are too well entrenched, profitable, and well-capitalized to "tank" 

 
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on the whole, the nasdaq does look very different, but I think tech will bifurcate personally (at least that's how my PA is), and names like GOOG, MSFT, AAPL, etc should do fine because they are of the highest quality, have minimal or no debt, tons of cash, and great business models. I do, however, question the viability of TSLA, NFLX, and the like with less than stellar looking free cash flow, lots of debt, and/or sky high PEs. I don't think it'll play out exactly like 2000, but I do think investors who have thrown aside fundamental analysis need to realize that this kinda shit can happen. and even if you're profitable and well capitalized, you can still suffer due to valuation. look at MSFT frmo 2000-2015 and CSCO all the way through to today. it matters how much you pay for those cash flows.

 

Friend of mine made a great point, going long TQQQ you are basically short vol. In these markets i dont think that's the best play. Decay will be more of a factor when TQQQ is going sideways or down.

I'll be pumping into regular ETFs for the time being; QQQ and SPY. Already down 50%+ on my TQQQ position lol.

Go all the way
 

Hey if you don't need this money for 10-20 years or more don't even worry about it. As long as the market goes up in the long term, there will be more up days than down days and TQQQ will outperform 3x QQQ. Volatility drag only hurts in the short term where there may be more down days than up days. If you invested $1000 a month from 1999 (tech bubble peak) to 2021 (total investment of 265k), the value of that portfolio would be $12.5 million. Buying the dips in TQQQ and just consistently DCA will make you a winner in the long run. Unless there's a 10 or 20 year bear market, you'll be fine. If we ever get a market crash like COVID again, I am buying the fuck out of TQQQ. TQQQ was in the 8's or 9's in the market crash of 2020 and rebounded to a high of 91 in November 2021. Be patient, DCA, and be strong through the volatility. I'm gonna hopefully have money on the sidelines to deploy when TQQQ tanks even more later this year after the rate hikes. I think it's gonna be even worse than 2018 for the market this year. May try to sell out of TQQQ if we can get a fake rally for 2 weeks like march this year and then wait for a low entry point.

 

Ur saying the markets not even bottomed yet? Curious to hear why u think this sell off is just the start?

 

Sorry to ping this after a year, but worth noting: leverage resets daily on leveraged ETFs, so precentage gain needed to recover a loss is even greater than without leverage. If the index were to fall 10%, you'd need an 11.1% increase to recover that loss without leverage. With leverage, you'd need 14.3% return to breakeven. Also, fees are 10x in leveraged ETFs than what they are in standard, so long-term holds of leveraged ETFs aren't recommended. They can be massively beneficial in the short term to guess a direction and win big, but long term doesn't pencil out like that. 

I'm horrendous at explaining, so here's a video instead if you're interested: 

Don't @ me
 

I'm curious why there is very little talk of options in this thread. Wouldn't buying a long-term call/LEAPS make more sense here (i.e. smaller outlay) if you truly have a long-term outlook? 

 

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