Has the market bottomed yet?

imo no. Markets have never bottomed before a recession, if one occurs. And there is basically a 90%+ chance there will be a recession in the next 12-18 months. 

Be right back, let me check my crystal ball. 🤷🏼‍♂️

Nope. Buckle in cos 2023 is gonna be a wilddd one.

.

The S&P 500 bottomed on October 13th for this cycle and will not revisit such levels again until we are past ATHs. I guarantee this. Screenshot and save this comment.

Doesn't feel like a full blown 2008 style meltdown given there is still so much capital available, job market strong, and consumer demand relatively good. 

Is it 2021? No but that was hardcore bubble territory. 

I feel valuations finally getting to be reasonable. Maybe another 15% - 25% lower from here but who knows! 

Personally I have been running our companies relatively conservatively since Q1 2022. Big focus on deleveraging and operating under the assumption that we will lose random vendor terms, credit facilities, etc. 

Our feeling for 2023 is similar so we are going to keep running lean, deleveraging, and expanding margin. 

All that said, '22 was pretty good for us, strong YOY performance and 2023 already trending up 180%+ for the core company I focus on. 

nobody knows shits about fucks. Central banks decide when we pump or dump, they can do this in matter of days. At this point just DCA into your asset class that is probably down to lower your cost per share in whatever market you are invested in. If fundamentals haven't changed, why not buy when its lower at set time frames with disposable income. Wealth is made in bear markets. 

Nobody knows and even if they know, I highly doubt you'll be able to time it. My motto for financial success is:

1. DCA into broad index funds for the vast majority of your money. I still think cash is trash despite the fact that markets are risky

2. For the part of your portfolio you actively manage, hold your nose and buy quality. The last decade showed me markets can be irrational for a very long time (in this case, 10 years+). Buying companies that are growing FCF consistently will yield results in the long-run even if you under-perform initially.

To your question, I doubt it has. My guess is the market is underestimating the severity of this recession and thinks the Fed will pivot and start lending at low interest rates again soon. I think inflation will be sticky for a while and banks will need to keep rates higher for longer, which will cause problems for speculative companies that hired a ton of people will financing is cheap. These companies will either go bankrupt or lay off lots of people, which will push salaries down and reduce the money floating around the economy. Higher interest rates will also eat into earnings as companies will have to pay more money to service debt.

All of the above centers around rates staying higher for longer. If they do, I think we'll be in for slower growth for a while. If the Fed does pivot, as the markets think they will, it's off to the races again and it's time to load up on $QQQ.