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I'd think it more likely depends on bank than team (an outstanding intern in a team with low headcount may well be offered a return position, but placed in a pool for other teams to recruit from - perhaps that's just my bank though).
That said, as you pointed out, a large part of this is market conditions; HR have recruited a number of interns for 2025 based on headcount projections for 2026 - if the market and M&A activity accelerate more than HR acticipated than you'd expect higher return offer positions (not drastrically, but certainly to some extent).
I wouldn't want to put even a broader actual number out there, but I do get the sense that 2025 is going to be busy, with a lot of sponsor assets needing homes. My bank is starting to see attrition at the junior level too. All slow-moving indicators, but hopefully the dreadful market in the past couple of years is drawing to a close.
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