Any one of you has an idea on how end of the year bonuses will look like this year for IBD associates in banks like MS, GS and JPM? It’s been such a soul crushing year, people are physically and mentally exhausted. And despite this weird environment, performance has been steady-to-very good. I heard absolutely nothing and, without surprise, this seems to be a bigger corporate secret than a 30 years old nuclear power plant tax base.
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Very interesting as to how this will play out. Has been a ridiculously busy period since ~May/June for everyone. I can see the Covid-19 excuse being trotted out... but at the same time, I've always partly felt bonuses are almost forward looking to some extent (what is the minimum amount your group can pay you to keep you in your seat). Given things will likely continue as busy as they are, as well as the new junior bankers not being as effective given they've been onboarded at home, that could play into your favour.
Time will tell, I suppose...
Thanks, very helpful- this is exactly what I hope banks will apply in terms of reasoning when getting comps organised.
My guess is that they will unfortunately be down across the street to compensate for losses in other areas. FI trading had one the best years on record, but one BB (can't recall who) already came out and guided that the bonus pool would be flat. Not a great leading indicator for other groups with non-record years.
Fingers crossed that I'm wrong.
That was baml
I'm at a MM and expecting bonuses will be up across all segments of the bank. 2021 is also looking to be a very hot year for M&A
I'm expecting a flat to slightly higher bonus because of the insane workload so they will need to pay up to retain talent (it is very difficult to train new people in this environment). I know many experienced people who plan on walking out if the bonuses are below flat from last year since the workload doubled.
What do you mean workload doubled? Is it that mds are doing 2x the pitches or anything else? How many deals/pitches would a typical analyst be on in 2019 vs 2020? (First year analyst getting killed)
I bet flat, they'll blame it on COVID (even though business has been good). They just don't want to pay anyone ever, always an excuse. I think exec bonuses won't be record-breaking either (talking post '08) because the political climate is changing and the main street vs wall street narrative is back in full swing. Banks don't want to send the message that they've crushed it while everyone else has lost their jobs.
I'd calibrate to average or slightly down bonuses but nothing more than 1 std deviation on the low or high side. If you're part of a broader, full-service bank, it's hard to see getting paid a crazy high bonus this year.
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