Financial model assumption

Hey everyone, I need help with something. I created a 3 statement model for shake shack. my problem is I need help coming up with the assumption. I want to use regression analysis to forecast revenue and other variables that drives the business. however, I’m not sure how to begin. do I just use the regression analysis or variance analysis on the historical data to forecast the future? or what drive a business like shake shack? also I want to take Into considerations the amount of stores and licenses they have.

2 Comments
 

I'm not entirely familiar with the entire business model of Shake Shack, but I'd assume that the core business is driven off sales per sqm/sq. ft. (reason being a larger restaurant would serve more customers). Not sure if this information is available in their annual reports/company presentations though, alternatively you can use a sales per store metric to calculate their in-store sales and perhaps a % of that as others (e-Commerce, merchandise, etc).

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