Forecasting Financials

When forecasting financials, there are indeed varied approaches, and the choice often depends on the context of the analysis and the level of detail required. Based on the most helpful WSO content, here are some key insights:

1. Using Equity Research Reports:
   Equity research reports are a common starting point for projections up to EBIT. They provide consolidated forward numbers and are particularly useful when management guidance is unavailable. However, it's crucial to understand how these numbers are built, as inconsistencies can arise (e.g., pre- vs. post-SBC, inclusion of partial ownership stakes, etc.). Always check the deltas between individual analysts and the consensus to identify bullish or bearish biases.

2. Recalculating EBITDA:
   Many analysts prefer recalculating EBITDA rather than relying solely on equity research figures. This is because third-party data providers like CapIQ or FactSet may calculate EBITDA differently, often missing one-time items or adjustments. Building a PP&E schedule to independently calculate D&A ensures that your EBITDA aligns with your assumptions and provides a more tailored view of the company's financials.

3. Reconciling Differences:
   If you notice discrepancies between your recalculated EBITDA and the equity research consensus, it's essential to reconcile them. For example, credit rating agencies like Moody's and S&P often adjust EBITDA differently (e.g., rent add-backs, pension adjustments). Understanding these adjustments can help you align your starting point with theirs and ensure consistency.

4. Best Practices:

   • Use equity research as a benchmark but validate and adjust based on your assumptions.
   • Lay out projections from multiple equity research providers in a table, calculate the mean and median, and triangulate a reasonable projection.
   • Be cautious of over-reliance on third-party data providers and always verify how EBITDA is calculated.
   • For private companies or limited public data, management guidance (if available) is the ideal source for projections.

Ultimately, the approach depends on the purpose of your analysis. If precision is critical (e.g., for valuation or credit analysis), recalculating EBITDA with your assumptions is often preferred. However, for high-level projections or quick assessments, equity research figures can suffice with proper adjustments.

Sources: DCF Modeling Course ~ Pre-training text.pdf, Sources and Uses: How to Find and Use Information in IBD (EBITDA example), Sources and Uses: How to Find and Use Information in IBD (EBITDA example)