Has UBS IB entered a death spiral/doom loop?
A lot of chatter on this forum on the platforms recent struggles. Is this a momentary rebuild or the beginning of the end for the bank?
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I think UBS is obviously going to rebuild. I think saying the bank will end is a bit of a leap. Sergio, clearly, for better or worse, is willing to invest in IBD America's division, and they still have tons of money to do so. Firing the useless seniors brought in will also help the bottom line in the long run, as their guaranteed bonuses run out this year. Will expect most groups to be rebuilt and the top 3 groups to be strengthened under new leadership, as that just simply seems like the most logical move. Will probably also see UBS return to doing more UMM/MM deals, with the rare larger-cap sponsors deal. Think the most realistic outcome is that UBS goes back to its old strategy of being the go-to bank across sizes for select sponsors, just potentially with more sponsors being targeted than previously.
Don't let your hate of your UBS group cloud your judgment; there is no serious chance of UBS closing or spinning out its IB business. It's not like it'd make much money to sell it given how bad groups like Tech and M&T are, and reputationally and future growth potential-wise doesn't make sense.
It’s over boys
I’m hopping ship next month.
You get grinded into the dirt working on shitty pitches and financings, terrible WLB and hours, terrible culture, terrible deal exposure and your reward? A shitty bonus and you don’t get included in next round of RIFs.
At an analyst level, the IB pay is lower than some corp dev/IR gigs…
I don’t think it’s doomed yet but there is so much key man risk. Will be interesting to see which MDs leave or stay once MV is gone and what the strategy going forward is. They clearly have wanted to grow, but they haven’t because most of the current MDs suck and it’s a completely dysfunctional place.
80% of the deal flow probably comes from 10% of MDs, and these MDs, except for a single CR guy, are all in FSG/LevFin/Industrials. Most top-heavy full-service bank in the street, and it's not close.
Why would those bankers leave though?
They are one "reputable banker spin off" (ala Blair Effron-Centerview or Ken Moelis-Centerview) away from a permanent death spiral.
Ken Moelis used to be at UBS lmao
I meant "Ken Moelis-Moelis" and yeah, I know he used to be at UBS, hence why I brought him up.
So much negativity smh
So much delusion smh
Doomed
In the long run they will be alright but they’re currently in a tough spot. It’ll take a while to unwind the damage done over the past few years.
Way too top heavy and too many useless MDs… they will hang around as long as possible to collect a check so it’ll take a while to rebuild with the right people.
This has happened before elsewhere, but not to this magnitude
First Boston might end up happening!
I’m hearing there is interest
Another round of layoffs today across banking groups. Morale very low.
How many in GIG or FIG?
Too many
We are now in the middle of the end
King Marco must go.
We are now at middle of the end with the league tables reflecting it
There is more to IB than just Americas IBD.
If you suck in the Americas, you pretty much just suck -- makes up like 60% of global fee pool.
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