How safe is FT offer
After seeing IB revenue down 40-55% YoY for majority of the large BBs, was wondering how safe FT offers in IB at BBs in Australia are for next year?
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In IB M&A CS and UBS offers should be solid, GS, JPM and MS should be safe but are by no means certain. In ECM DCM I'd say offers are safer. BofA and DB are majorly questionable in my view. Shouldn't be a recession in Aus but m&a will fall due to cost of capital and sentiment changes
Can you expand on why this might vary between the banks you mentioned? Also why capital markets might be safer?
Your biggest concern is not necessarily banks revoking some offers but rather banks freezing hiring or pulling out of Aus. Cs and UBS have the most established and strongest M&A shops by far. The rest are largely capital raise functions (I.e DCM ECM) or work heavily in cross border deals which means they don't necessarily generate their own revenue, and when they do in M&A it's small and rare. DCM ECM market has always been safer in Australia because there is wider competition and a larger market. Honestly I wouldn't sh*t myself yet because I doubt there will be any layoffs in Aus. More likely lower bonus but given some competition on lower levels from smaller banks they would probably think twice even doing this.
No insight on AUS specifically, but across BBs FT offers are one of the absolute last to go as long as you already have one. Banks may cut some of the underperforming VPs/Ds - high cost and they don't drive that much revenue. You as an analyst do all of the work, are very low cost, comp is deferred (no base pay until you start, no bonus until a year later and that is completely variable) they aren't cutting incoming classes unless the market takes a mega nosedive which it just hasn't yet
Junior roles should be safe, they need to replace the folks that turn over every year. Your comp also a rounding error for most of the big shops.
However, stay nimble and be ready to start networking and applying again. Don't need to be stressed and hyperfocused, but be aware of other process deadlines and don't completely lose sight of what's happening in the world.
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