I think there will never be a "new" Bulge Bracket.

I constantly see discourse on here about whether a bank that was never considered BB will soon be considered one given their tremendous performance among other factors. 

I am not saying that on paper these firms are not qualified to be considered BB just that I think the BB tag is more heritage focused than just league table focused. 

No matter how many sick deals they close CVP or Moelis will never be considered a BB against MS/BAML/Citi.

I think there is an essence of history and size all these BB's have in common. Even when one falls off the list such as in Credit Suisse or Salomon Brothers, these new firms will never be able to truly take their place.

I like to compare it to cars or fashion, no matter how fast they are a Hennessey Venom or Koenigsegg will never ever be as regarded or respected as Ferrari or Lamborghini, thats just the way it is. 

Supreme or BAPE will never be more respected than Christian Dior or Louis Vuitton. 

Basquiat  or Kaws will never be more respected than Michelangelo or Da Vinci no matter how many hundreds of millions the former will go for.

I know people are going to make fun of me for comparing GS to Da Vinci, I am not saying these are perfect comparisons just brought them up so you can get the jist. 

11 Comments
 

What balance sheet does GS or MS have? MS uses MUFG for their BS activities...

 

It is interesting that you speak to history when history demonstrates that you are wrong. For example, GS was a no name bank until the Sears IPO and wasn’t a BB until the Ford IPO. It took them 50 years to go from a becoming a bank of note to becoming a BB. And that’s a generous timeline for GS. BoA became a BB over about 40 years of acquisitions (effectively ending with their acquisition of ML).

Sure. It gets less and less likely as the BBs get bigger and bigger. It gets less likely as the industry consolidates. But new banks will get big. New banks will become top banks. EBs will become more full-service. It is how this cycle works. There are bank executives with ambition and competence.

It just takes time. BBs are… “created” over decades, not minutes. Which, yeah I know what era we live in. If it takes longer than 10 seconds it is considered forever now a days. But the BB cycle is a long one

 

Makes no sense, you take Moelis/CVP as potential non BB while potential BB would be actual international banks covering all activities such as WF, BNP, HSBC, etc (just quoting as examples of banks, not saying they will become BB).

As for the example you took in other industry it does not make sense either. Supreme is low quality shit only based on marketing while LV has built legacy over quality haute couture and leather goods. Regarding cars, sure if you talk to randy but anyone who even know the name koenigsegg would place it above ferrari or lambo. Anyhow doesn't make to compare the prestige of clothes and cars to the designation "BB" which is supposedly tangible and based on criteria of size, diversity of offer and international impact

 

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