Perpetuity Valuation Question

A friend of mine mentioned a question he got during an interview, and I haven't been able to get my head around it. Do any of you all know the answer to this one?

What is the present value of a perpetuity that generates $1000 in the first year, and generates an additional $1000 during each subsequent year ($1000 in year 1, $2000 in year 2, $3000 in year 3...)? The discount rate is 10%.

Usually, you can just plug this into the formula: PV = CF1/(i-g), but here since the cash stream increases by a fixed dollar amount, rather than a percentage, the growth rate decreases every period. At year 10 i = g and I believe that PV stops growing, and starts decreasing. Is this correct, and is there an easy way to calculate this during an interview? Thanks.

14 Comments
 

Assuming the cash flow is at the end of each year and the discount rate you're given is on an annual compounding basis, it's 1000$ times the sum from i = 1 to infinity of i/(1.1^i)

This infinite series is known as Gabriel's Staircase. The formula for it is r/(1-r)^2 where r is 1/(1.1)

I'm aware of at least two derivations for that formula, neither of which take more than 2 lines of algebra

The numerical answer you get is 110 000 $

 

This is a pretty straight-forward question. Forget the $1,000 part (just start with $1, then $2, then $3, etc.). It is pretty straight-forward to write this as a double-sum. Let i be the annual interest rate for discounting (10% here)

sum_{j = 1 to Inf} sum_{k = j to Inf} (1+i)^(-k) = (1/i) * sum_{j = 0 to Inf} (1+i)^(-j) = (1+i) / i^2

Each equality follows via geometric sum (and a little algebra to clean up the expression).

 

This is a simple brainteaser, monkies

you have a perpetuity, in perpetuity

the first perpetuity one is worth:

1000/.10 = 10,000

this perpetuity, is happening every year. (y1, y2, y3, y4, so on and so forth) - so its value, can be calculated like a perpetuity as well:

10,000/.10 = 100,000

edit: interview questions like this are not meant to be done with calculators or excel, they exist to test if you can "breakdown" supposedly complex problems

 
Best Response

Your answer is wrong because you are starting each perpetuity one year late.

The present value of the first perpetuity is indeed 10 000$, but this is given to you TODAY (this is the definition of a present value!) The value in 1 year of the second perpetuity is 10 000$ and this is given to you in 1 year

so the flow of value to you starts one year early relative to a "standard" perpetuity question, where the first payment is 1 year from today

This is why your answer is a factor of 1.1 off from the correct answer of 110 000$

If done correctly, the method you used to value the perpetuity is one means of proving the value of Gabriel's Staircase; you write the sum as a double sum, flip the order of summation and then value a geometric sum twice.

You cannot be so cavalier in claiming that answers are obvious. It's nice to have intuition, but yours led you slightly astray here

The other means of proving what gabriel's staircase sums to is to write:

let a(r) = sum from i = 0 to inf. of r^i

then r * da/dr = sum from i = 0 to inf. of ir^i = sum from i = 1 to inf. of ir^i

But this is what you want to evaluate, and we know that a(r) = 1/(1-r). Taking the derivative and multiplying by r we get the formula I posted earlier

 

The ad hoc thought processes above are reasonable, but in order to get it right (i.e. not trying to guess your way to the correct solution, and not looking up some formula which you cannot do on the spot), turn the intuition into the double sum in my prior post. This is not hard to do, but perhaps a clearer explanation will elucidate:

One perpetuity starting at time 1: sum{k = 1 to Inf} 1/(1+i)^k A new perpetuity starting at time 2: sum{k = 2 to Inf} 1/(1+i)^k Yet another one at time 3: sum{k = 3 to Inf} 1/(1+i)^k ... We get a perpetuity like this for every time j = 1, 2, 3, ... Thus, the value is the double sum in prior post:

sum{j = 1 to Inf} sum{k = j to Inf} 1/(1+i)^k = (1+i) / i^2

I argued why this equality holds previously (two separate geometric series). Here: i = 10%, so 1.1 / 0.1^2 = 1,100 Since there is a notional amount of $1,000, we get a final answer of ($1,000)*(1,100) = $110,000. This is the way to do it. That is, a combination of the right intuition mentioned by others, and just a tiny bit of math (only geometric sums).

 

That formula is a classic, and is well-known to any math undergraduate or participant in high school math competitions.

Even if you don't know it, deriving it is EXACTLY what aranaxon did (though, as I said, he made a mistake in doing so).

 

nnamehere, I understand what you are saying, but in my experience, strong math people rarely memorize formulas, but rather re-derive relatively simple formulations such as this. I say this, because if I change the problem just a little bit, then this "formula" is no longer useful. Consider a perpetuity which pays 1, 3, 6, 10, 15, 21, 28, 36, 46, 57, ... If we discount at rate interest rate i, what is the value? Answer: (1+i)^2 / i^3. Anyway, we have probably beaten this discussion to death.

 

I'm not disagreeing with you that you should be able to reconstruct it from scratch.

Indeed, doing so (either of the ways detailed so far) gives you the method to find the value of ANY polynomial payoff (not just constant or linearly increasing) discounted at a constant rate.

 

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