The Comeback of Citi and Rise of EBs

taking a very cursory look at it as an incoming fig analyst- all IBs grew after the election in anticipation of more dealflow then dropped after tariffs, with rebounds happening recently. 

Jeff doesnt have the other divisions that BBs have to support IB flow or as strong a rx group as some of the public EBs to battle the cyclicality. Feff ballooned in price after election much more than other banks like pjt, evr, laz; with around 30% growth from early nov to peak in dec/jan compared to 10% in other boutiques. Not sure what drove this but im guessing jeff's unique levfin capability was judged as a potential hot market with interest rate cut forecasts which hasn't materialized. Jeff is also selling off their MBD divisions, leaving them even more reliant on ib cycles than previously, so any market volatility will hurt firm earnings even more. while their m&a fees look good above, their equity underwriting fees were cut in half in q2 which is much steeper dropoff than BBs

their current stock price is basically around their stock price from last year, so it could be argued this is more a normalization for them in 1Y stock price than a drop YTD, which was inflated post election more than other banks. their most similar looking comp is moelis which is also flat 1Y. not sure why other banks have rebounded but jeff/moe haven't; but my guess is their reliance on levfin type work for jeff and sponsor backed deals for moelis are not areas the market deems hot currently