MS and GS are the next to fall. The IB model is dying. Investment banks are all going to be absorbed into the lesser commercial banks. This is the end of US market domination. American capitalism is dead. I hate my life.
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I'm sure they said the same thing in 1929 and 1987...people will adapt...and life will move on...
This is absolutely not the same. They didn't have China to worry about. This is the beginning of the transfer of market capitalization from the west to the east. New York is the next London.
the world needs investment banks - the pure broker-dealer model may die, but that just means that i-banks will fund themselves with deposits, rather than repos.
I'd be much, much more worried about the government having too much power over the sector - a $700 billion claim on i-banks is not good.
there is a reason they aren't funding themselves through deposits- it's because the returns are not anywhere as close if they were just to leverage themselves nuts. less risk = lower profit. power is shifting to the east. there is no way college grads will be able to earn as muc they do now. wall street is going to be a bum's sport like it was before the 70's
I'll agree that the wall street college grads will not be able to earn as much as they do now going forward.
But wall street will not be a bum's sport. there is still M&A that will happen in the states (both Cross Border and domestic). Firms will need operations in the states (NY isn't going to become a deserted city like they showed it to be in Heroes) to meet with companies that reside in NY. You do realize that majority of the media players reside in NY. As far as earning power is considered at the analyst's level in banking, its peanuts compared to what people earn at senior levels in IB and on the buy-side.
If banking goes away completely, where do you think the PE shops/HF are going to get their junior hires (prime brokerage? equities clearing?)?
Wall Street will still be a competitive place to find employment and when times are good, unemployment will fall. When it's bad, unemployment will rise.
The banks have a more global perspective anyway. In order to be competitive for these jobs, people need to learn additional languages. So go out and buy some Rosetta Stone software.
Your life is anything but over. Some genius is going to come up with a new way to make money and he will make it rain.
I will admit that the $700 Billion "bailout" will create tighter regulation and the banks won't be taking as many risks since Big Brother will be monitoring them.
No better place to get junior hires from than right off of corporate finance desks and trading desks.
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