What is the future of investment banking?

I’m going to direct my response towards post MBA associates or “banking as a career” vs the alternatives. If you’re an undergrad the answer is definitively “yes, banking is still worth it”. 

• Revenues are down significantly after a completely absurd year where everyone killed it. Financial markets are always cyclical and we’re heading into a down cycle. Not the first time it’s happened.
• Compensation now is the highest it’s been since pre financial crisis. There were a series of base increases during COVID for associates and bonuses were obscene last year. 
• Comparisons post MBA from M7 shouldn’t really include former bankers - of course they want PE or to pivot to consulting. If they wanted to stay in banking they would just take the A2A promote. Also, there are “top candidates” (I.e. anyone from HSW) and there actual top candidates (people who would be good at the job). Nobody would want the diversity Teach For America candidate at Wharton over random F100 engineer with good hard stats from Columbia. A significant % of the “real” top candidates at HSW are former finance guys who again don’t need the degree to do banking.
• I think a significant % of MBA candidates don’t really recognize how large the gap in all in compensation is or how that gap grows wider over time. You mostly have figures for signing bonus and base salary provided by the school, which isn’t that useful. Salaries are slightly higher year for year in consulting but bonuses are more like 15% to 25%. In banking if you get 50% you’re punching a wall and probably assuming they’re trying to tell you to quit. My EB paid 140%+ last year and definitely wasn’t the highest
• “Tech” as in SWE (requiring a technical degree in CS or EE from undergrad) and “tech” as in being a Product Manager post-MBA aren’t the same. Tech out of undergrad is fantastic, tech out of MBA is an e-mail job that would be mocked as back office or middle office if software engineers had the same d-bag culture that finance has 
• The banking market isn’t really becoming more concentrated. We have a pretty stable equilibrium of bulges (+ other balance sheet banks) that companies want to keep happy by spreading some of the revenue around. Sure GS/MS etc. might get a disproportionate share of lead advisor slots on mega deals but that’s always been the case. Then you have several EBs (+similar) that are doing well and get tapped as independent advisors alongside bulges for larger deals, get fairness opinion mandates, go downmarket to compete with MMs, have good restructuring practices etc. Same deal with middle market sell side shops, they have a defined space and they know where they sit. 
• Culture has improved massively post COVID. People take for granted the idea that you can leave at 5 or 6 and people trust you to still work. Or that you don’t need to come into the office every Saturday or Sunday. Yes - it used to be like that.
• Director/ED/SVP titles aren’t really new. Most VPs aren’t ready to jump immediately to MD and be solo. They need an intermediate step where they don’t have to manage the work team as much, but aren’t totally tossed into the wilderness and can still be semi handheld by experienced MDs

Generally I’d say the job is in a good spot - better than it’s been at any other point post GFC, and probably more tolerable from a work life balance standpoint than it’s ever been.
 

That said, it’s not for everyone. Plenty of reasons to choose consulting. Many think the work is more interesting, being focused on a single project can be less mentally taxing, the hours are better, there are a broader range of exits available, MBB has a brand name that’s probably only matched by Goldman etc.

I’m also willing to entertain an argument for Product Manager tech roles if anyone has one, but at first glance I really don’t get the appeal at all. Seems like you’re at best a cheerleader and at worst a bureaucratic roadblock for the actual revenue generators. Can’t avoid being reminded of the viral video of the girls on their laptops by the pool who couldn’t explain what they actually do.