If someone asks you how much would you bet that your answer is right in an interview?
How would you measure this? Would you use Kelly criterion or is that to aggressive?
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First question is 'who gets to be the arbiter of what is right?'. Second question is 'what happens if there's a dispute?'. Just want to make sure it's a level playing field.
As far as Kelly criterion...how do you estimate your edge? Also, you can't make the bet repeatedly..you get a finite (low) amount of chances here.
You have to estimate the probability, you are right. This is tricky, perhaps I could use time of computation, and the numbers steps I took in the problem to help estimate it. I would think the firm would be the arbiter seeing as they are asking me the questions and I have to answer them correctly. I figured Kelly had this flaw. Unfortunately there are discrete finite values in real life. I need to decide how much of a chance of going under I'm willing to take over a set number of trials and maximize my EV from there perhaps.
This might be the reason why I am the way I am, and the reason why I never got asked back for any of my quant interviews in college.
If you know the answer, would you just say 99% / almost all your money or whatever you're putting up? The question is so vague that the only answer I could come up with would be "it depends" since we don't know the question. If it's a confidence question as I would assume, the best answer is to be very confident in your answer. Given, if you honestly don't know or your making an educated guess, then you obviously bet less... but if you know it, what's the damn equation for?
"Do you have a penis" 99.9% "Are you black" 99.9% "Does 1 + 1 = 2" 100% "Are you the best candidate for this position" 100% "Which has more people, Russia or Brazil" 55%
I don't get it.
They could mistake you for saying "too" instead of "two". It goes back to what SirTradesaLot said; who says what's right or wrong?
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