What are example scenarios under which a PM would typically no longer find a new seat?
I'm looking for actual real life stories (how / how often did they blow up, what was the performance trajectory, etc.) based on your own experience and what you've heard from friends.
In the absence of specific data points, I also accept your educated guesses ;-)
What have you seen people do afterwards? Downgrade to analyst? Go to a bank? Corporate?
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If you're looking for anecdotes I can give you two.
TMT pod shop PM blew up once and jumped to another pod shop. He blew up again within 6 months. Shifted to SS coverage as an analyst, now works in IR.
Industrials pod shop PM blew up. Jumped to another pod shop and blew up in 1 year. Somehow he launched his own fund with his co-PM. They started losing money on M&M positions so he took a bunch of bets on TSLA options in a side book without LPs knowing. Naturally, he got his face ripped off and now is a podcast bro that does some random advisory work.
what are M&M positions?
They were trading in physical chocolate but their positions were prematurely liquidated when their warehouse AC broke during a hot day in June.
Jk -- They were trading metals & mining names and got burned on steel mills and coal miners.
So the pattern here is that if you blow up a second time within a year of the first blow up (ignoring garden leave), you're done? Unless you somehow trick investors into giving you money for your own fund?
(Of course it's dumb to extract patterns from 2 anecdotes.)
The pattern is you've failed at making money consistently enough that no one is willing to give you one more chance.
It matters how you blew up.. did you lose money 15 months in a row, or did an extremely unlikely event take place that you can convince people you'll never get caught in again. And so on.
Typically when you blow up at a firm,the only place to move is down. Regardless of whether you blow up twice within a year, after 2 or 3 blowups you’re essentially at the bottom of the industry where you’re not making much to begin with and at that point other career paths offer better pay
Sounds to me like the industrials guys got the most prestigious exit anyone can ask for.
Can you DM me the podcast please? I've always wondered whether these podcasters actually made money, retired, and are now sharing their knowledge or if they blew up and are just talking about generic stuff.
There could be several reasons why PMs who have made enough money retire and start doing podcasts or selling courses maybe they prefer a flexible schedule, want to avoid the stress of running a portfolio, etc.
But as listeners (outsiders who want to learn), we need to know who actually made money and who blew up so we can understand whom to take seriously and follow.
Why would you blab your mouth instead of cozy up in Southern Europe if you are crazy rich? They are all grifters
Ive found a lot of these guys just go dark and you never hear from them again. Presumably they made enough money so tha they dont have to work again but usually have to adjust their standard of living down (i.e. One CC membership instead of three, sell the vacation home, etc).
Spec Sales on the sell side is kind of a post-HF landing spot. Sometimes IR/Corporate or being a SS analyst. Have had other seniors ive worked with (not PMs) go on to do things like own franchise businesses, start a search fund.
It really depends on how much money you have, your desire to continue working, how much risk you can take how much effort you want to put in and how much you want/need a safe salaried job like IR or Sell Side.
Hard to believe you can go from being a PM making millions in a year to IR at a corporate making $250k but it happens.
I think the senior IR people make at least $500-600k in TC. And the PM doesn't consistently make millions every year.
Buyside professionals are really good at telling themselves that all other careers suck. Lol.
Is IR much more stable/predictable? I'm extremely interested in pursuing a career within a HF and willing to take that risk, but I'm a little worried on how things may turn out if I slip up and miss my footing.
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