Banking on Blubber
During insecure economic times it becomes increasingly difficult to invest intelligently. There are always the stalwarts like commodities and secure government debt, but even they ain't what they used to be. Things have changed in recent times, however, as the over abundance of information allows even the most novice investor to make moves which mimic the strategies once reserved for the Wall Street elite.
So how do you stay a step ahead of the curve? What sort of opportunities are out there for the smart investor unwilling to follow the herd and reap minimal returns year after year? The answer may be no further away than pointing your head downward and looking at your own gut. That's right fat boy, not only can you win the WSO Weight Loss Challenge you can even get rich of others unwilling to travel down the svelte path.
For years we have heard about the coming economic effects of America aging. There has been very little written and said, however, about America's growing obesity problem. We already know the story and those of us who venture outside of U.S. borders from time to time are reminded of it the minute we set foot on the streets of Europe, Africa, Asia and South America. Americans are fat. There is very little denying it.
Some days I drive down a long road which houses a high school, a small college and a YMCA. Even though the street is decidedly flat I often feel like I am driving up a hill. With each facility that I pass the people entering and exiting get bigger and wider in the waist line. By the time I turn off that street I feel like I watched a video about the life cycles of seals.
If trends are to continue, researchers estimate that America's obesity bill will reach an unbelievable $66 billion dollars in healthcare costs by 2030. For a people complaining about tough economic times, we are still doing our damndest to keep McDonald's and Burger King ringing the register on the regular.
Instead of making this a social commentary, I think we can turn it into a discussion about profits and investing. One thing I am certain of is that we will not be seeing a huge demographic shift to apples and oranges as a primary source of nourishment any time soon. So how do we profit from it?
Knowing that Americans are not fond of being told what to do and how to do it, maybe some contrarian investing is in order? Perhaps pitching VCs your own version of the world's greasiest hamburger is a better value play in the coming decades than the umpteenth social media venture?
With over 100 million Americans already considered obese perhaps those seeking to become the value investors of a new generation will seek to invest in fast food companies and potato chip production?
Perhaps I just woke up on the fat side of the bed this morning but I honestly believe that with all the advanced investment tactics, debt tranches, derivative strategies and the like we have forgotten some of the basics of making money. Like giving people what they want.
People want more of what they like and will spend accordingly. As the economy shows no sign of recovery and as more and more Americans tune into their local value menu over the trendy restaurant down the way, perhaps finding a way to add to their gluttonous appetites is as safe a bet as any. Take it as a joke if you want, but I am dead serious. This is a growing sector folks, get in while you fit in.
Today's billion dollar question: how do we invest in America's love affair with largeness?
So you wrote a 10 paragraph blog to say Americans are fat, but you don't know how to profit from it.
I realize you may just be trying to start a conversation, but I would think that you could add some insight somewhere. It is well written, but I really don't see the point if you're not adding anything to this.
Buy MCD, KO, SBUX, and the "unhealthy" chains that cater to obesity. They all have strong growth linked to those prevailing demographics of those expanding waistlines...can't go wrong. As a hedge, you could get stock in Whole Foods or something to channel that segment of the population that has the means to afford healtheir eating.
All sensible ideas. Not sure there's any reason to hedge, btw. We'll sooner get of gasoline, television and the internet then we'll get off the fat wagon. Always wondered how come there isn't a strategy specifically centered around junk/fa(s)t food. Outside of the Vice Fund I haven't heard of a shop that uses any similar strategy. Since sugar's the most widely price manipulated commodity on the planet, however, it isn't as simple as it may seem. I was thinking more so something along the lines of taking positions down the supply chain of fast food restaurants, i.e. the specific companies they use to produce their: food/drink containers, the specific companies that provide them breading/imitation chicken/fish/beef, bulk oil, (perhaps this could be expanded to include palm futures as a RM tool?) grease traps, etc. Think it would be interesting to see someone try it as an out and out strategy.
Great point on the sugar commodities trade; same thing could go for coffee. As far as buying Whole Foods, you could consider it a hedge, but if you think about it, are they really competing for the same market? I mean, someone who eats at Burger King because it's cheaper probably wouldn't be a regular at more-expensive Whole Foods. A lot of people also eat fast food a lot because it's the only thing around. So you have potential upside in two markets there.
I actually think there's a strong trend towards eating healthier and more "organic" food. I would only buy MCD/KO for their emerging markets exposure
agricultural commodities
americans are already fat. i'm waiting for 3 billion fat indians and chinese to make me rich son .
^^^^^^^^^^ oil&gas / software in india is better I feel like. I may be wrong
Hedge with WTW
people don't want to be fat.
Just an idea, maybe you can make money helping fat people lose weight?
Maybe I'm not on the right track here ;)
SBUX is a great stock... the Chinese have recently started drinking HUGE amounts of SBUX (as much as americans) in Beijing and Shanghai - and now SBUX are creeping into other markets. SBUX China is going to be as big as SBUX America one day --- then you've got the russians, indians and brazilians who have yet to be hooked properly... I bought a lot of the stock last week and am planning to hold for 20 years.
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