Is the world doing better than we're being told?
I was thinking about this and I'm of the opinion that we are doing okay regardless of everything that's going on. There are a lot of positive trends, extreme poverty has gone down so have child mortality rates. While literacy rates, life expectancy, and IQ scores have gone up. That's only some of the positive developments taking place.
However, most people seem to think the world is getting worse. Being alive today is the best time to be alive, especially in the West. What are your opinions? Is this the best time to be alive relative to the rest of human history or is the end coming?
It's clear that were facing new challenges that are serious and need to be adressed, but objectively the world is improving.
Seven reasons why the world is improving - BBC Future
Agreed - I would recommend “Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World — and Why Things Are Better Than You Think” (which is written by the guy in that article).
I had to read it in class a few years ago, but essentially the point is that in general, things are improving in the world.
It’s a super interesting book and the purpose is to teach you how to interpret/analyze news, so that you can see beyond the bad.
You should just look up a synopsis if you don’t want to read it, but I pulled a few notes I had on Google drive (was only a few chapters into the book so not comprehensive):
1. Levels can be divided into 4 categories rather than just rich or poor (avoid extremes, not everything is “black” or “white”)
2. Recognize when a story talks about a gap - look for the majority
- Beware of campisons of averages (spreads are better), extremes, and the view from up here (everything looks equally short but it isn’t)
3. Recognize bad news - expect it
- Things can be better and bad, good news/gradual improvements aren’t news, more news doesn’t mean more suffering, beware of rosy pasts (we tend to forget how bad things used to be)
4. We have a straight line instinct (when we talk about trends), but in reality there are different types of curves
5. Recognize fears, calculate the actual risk (violence, captivity, and contamination)
- The world looks scary (fear vs. reality), real risk = danger x exposure, get calm before you make decisions
Love this thread, very interesting discussion. I want to dig into the numbers more and then I’ll get back to this but looking forward to it
I'd argue the opposite.
There's clearly a massive problem with populism across the West that I clearly don't understand.
Free trade and globalization is empirically and economically the optimum solution.
But clearly there's a problem with people being left behind.
61% of those with a college degree voted for Biden while 53% of those without one voted for Trump. There's a clear educational divide where those who haven't gone to university are drifting towards populism of either kind (left or right) and populism never ends well.
Free trade and globalization is empirically and economically the optimum solution.
But clearly there's a problem with people being left behind.
That list of people being left behind is growing... and every single one of them gets to vote. Expect more anger and populism in the West.
Spoken like someone who doesn't have the slightest understanding of what globalization results in. The ultimate lever of economic destruction for any individual nation at the high end of the spectrum is the resulting race to the bottom in labor costs. There's a reason why the majority of the population doesn't need to go to college and them not having a degree doesn't suddenly mean their lives and economic situations shouldn't matter to the so called "educated" class. Half the people graduating university now would've more likely than not been better off not going to college at all and instead just going right into the workforce.
Why is globalism the optimum solution? And how does populism "never end well"? Unfortunately you sound like one of those 61% who repeat these talking points without even thinking about it, so I would be surprised if you even answer
Optimum for who? Real life exists outside of your uni econ 101 class. Life isn't an economic model where you optimize your variables and consider it a great solution.
Lol I don't think populism is only a problem with the West...
The world on the net is an improving place, but the West is in a slow decline (that is, Western Europe, North America, and the European diaspora). Plummeting birth rates and aging populations, huge national debts, and huge unfunded entitlement liabilities (these are the objective problems--there are also the subjective problems, like decaying morality, a decrease in happiness over the last few decades based on surveys). In the last year, the average worker, net of wage increases and inflation, is 3.7% poorer in the United States--that's a conservative metric, too, because real inflation appears to be well into the double digits despite official gov't statistics. Things in the West are slowly getting worse, but the snowball is starting to pick up steam. It will go slowly and then fast. And when the U.S. accelerates its descent we will take everyone else (Canada, Europe) down with us.
Do you think these are just problems of today? It’s hard to predict the future but other civilizations have gone through periods of decline only to come out of it even stronger. Even the US coming out of the Great Depression and WW2 could be an example. I agree that in our current state we probably are in decline but I also can’t help but wonder if there will be another boom period in the coming decades.
Yeah, the short-term issues with inflation will probably be dealt with and we’ll return to economic cycles. The issues with the national debt, but particularly with entitlement spending, in the West (not just the US) will mathematically come to a head with the declining birth rates. It’s just an inevitability. At some point there will be insufficient funds to pay entitlements and the govt will have to engage in draconian cuts or inflating the currency or both, which will dash everyone into a lower standard of living. When this happens, what happens to the Western militaries? We will cut spending to the bone, which will probably destabilize the world. The West has had a long series of selfish and immoral leadership and publics that have led us down this path.
Enoch Powell rang the bell of Western decline back in the late 60s. Shortly thereafter we had the great inflation of the 70s, the crashes of the 80s, deregulation and globalization through the 90s, more crashes in the 2000s, even more globalization boosted by interconnectedness via social media through the 2010s, and now we kick off the 20s with a "pandemic" and more inflation with a crash on the horizon. Each time the working class in Western nations has been hit harder and climbed back slower, with additionally worrying indicators like youth unemployment reaching as high as 30%+ in countries like Spain. I dread to think what prospects will look like for young people in another 20-30 years at this rate.
Yes it is in many aspects. I recommend you to read Factfulness, written by Hans Rosling. Also check out the website https://www.gapminder.org for more data
The average American is definitely worse off today. Yeah, we have Netflix and iPhones, but in massive debt, stagnating wage slave jobs, immense stress and mental issues, etc etc.
If you’re in finance and tech then life is great. But we are in our own bubble and in the minority
On the other hand, internet has broken many barriers and there has never been as many opportunities as right now. If you’re a self-starter and hard working you can 100% improve your condition.
This study argues, and presents data to back it up, that the internet has not helped. The US is in a long term downward trend in class mobility.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1905094116
No way - chinas economy is on pace to double the size of US by 2035 and we in the US are focused more on gender pronouns rather than protecting against our adversaries.
That's a bad thing? I mean historically (for the last 6000 years or so), the Han Chinese had always been the masters of the art of peace than any other civilisation. There's a reason why they're called the "middle kingdom".
They may not be as versed in the art of war as other civilisations such as feudal Japan, Europe, the Middle East/Persia or the Indian Subcontinent, but they were the most advanced in agriculture, medicine, literature, physical art and architecture up until the mid-industrial revolution 200 years ago.
I'd trust the Han Chinese to lay a path forward for economic prosperity more than I'd trust some random country in the New World that was founded criminals and prostitutes.
What a way to describe America.
They were called the Middle Kingdom because they called themselves that lol, it wasn't like their neighbors all just bowed down to them. Just ask the Mongols or the Japanese
On average, the world is better off today than it was 20-30 years ago, however, the average American citizen is worse off.
Absolutely. Turn the screens off and you will see life is pretty great. To consider yourself a victim in this day and age in a sign of mental illness
2 centuries ago, Western nations ruled India, China and Africa, so no...
No one wants to talk about the fact that selfish old people are NOT dying. Declining birth rates because no young person can afford to raise kids anymore nor buy a house. They've had their fun, time for them to peacefully go and give up their property.
Can't tell if this is satirical or just liberal
I agree with this. Fuck old people.
I find this very offensive. My parents were born in the 1930s. Fuck you and all of your shit.
You would likely find the book Enlightenment Now interesting, it addresses your exact point in a fairly empirical / data-driven way (the book is not perfect but overall I found it compelling).
Will take a look, thanks.
This is basically just advances in agriculture and medicine, as well as having a prolonged period of peace in most regions due to the advent of nuclear weapons.
I would say that culturally, globalisation is rotting the planet. No country has their unique culture anymore. Everybody wears suits to work, has the same core set of laws (no rape, no murder, women can vote, no manslaughter) as well as basic principle of governance (democracy/republic).
I think everyone above is actually more in agreement than they realize - the WORLD is improving, especially the parts of the world that are experiencing sustainer above-average growth in real GDP per capita. However, the West as of right now is not.
Is this Jordan Peterson running poles on what people think about his lectures. I love Peterson and I watched him recently say almost this exact thought.
Yea that’s where I got the idea from, plus some other stuff I read. Thought I’d post here to see what people think.
Short answer: we're definitely better than the past, but we can also certainty get better.
Long answer: Can't speak to the world as a whole, even though we have had a lot less wars. In the West, particularly America, we are doing better. Problem is for a while there were groups/people whose profit came from telling you how bad we are. They can't just pack up and go home, so they need to keep telling you how bad things are so they can keep making money. Basically, create a problem and sell a solution. Even is that problem keeps getting minuscule.
Even though what I said above is some generic, what I really mean is, in reality, there's nothing holding anyone back. People will tell you they can't do this/that because of how they look, or their religion, or where they come from, but that's really just an excuse these days. Sure, 60 years ago if you had a certain name or skin color you probably could not have been a CEO or President of the country or actor/actresses; but that's not an excuse or barrier anymore.
In summary of my point, we're at a point now in the US, and maybe the world, where basically you can do whatever it is you want to do if you work hard enough. Sure if you're 5'5 you're probably not making the NBA, and sure everyone has some anecdote about someone who got a raw deal, but at the end of the day we basically all have the same shot at doing the same things.
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