The Iran War is a Fool's Errand
- the 1st amendment is still a thing, mfers, and criticism of the military-political leadership of a certain Middle Eastern country is included in the 1st amendment of the US Constitution.
- I've supported a lot of the policies of the Trump admin, especially at first, the left definitely went waaaay too far under Sleepy Joe.
However, this war is useless, and extremely foolish. What exactly are the benefits of this war to the United States?? Regime change is clearly out of the question, at least during the current phase of the war. How does bombing oil tanks in Iran benefit the American people or its economy?
I also feel really bad for the gulf states. Most of these countries have been quite good to the United States, and have gone at great lengths to cultivate good US relations. Now, they've been sucked into a foolish war they never chose to initiate. Sure, Iran is the one bombing them, but they invested in good relationships with the US as an asset, not as a liability.
Obviously Iran is a loser, USA is losing, Gulf States (UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, etc) are losers, the only country that is winning is Israel. And even at that, this is a "win" for the ruling faction of Israel, not for the people of Israel, many of whom are hiding in bunkers and basements as you are reading this.
So what exactly does this war accomplish? There's only one word I can say here: Why?
This war has already dragged on far longer than anyone expected.
I used to be skeptical of figures across the spectrum, from Theo Von to Tucker Carlson, who argue that Israel drives U.S. foreign policy. I mention them specifically to show the breadth of people who hold this view and how it has been gaining traction across very different audiences. After recent events, it is difficult not to give those claims more credibility.
Until just a few months ago, even Trump and many members of his cabinet were largely opposed to another American venture in the Middle East. Then, after pressure from Netanyahu, U.S. priorities appeared to shift dramatically. We have all seen the long history of clips dating back to the early 1990s in which Netanyahu warns that Iran is only weeks away from a nuclear weapon and urges U.S. military action. Previous presidents showed more resistance to these calls, but it seems they finally found a sucker in Trump.
The most troubling realization is the sense that the leaders we elect may not have full control over the country’s sovereign decisions.
I too shared the same skepticism before but the preponderance of evidence suggests the opposite -- the US govt & military are puppets of Israel and Jews
When an old pal of Trump, Kieran whispered into his ears, urging him to go to the Middle East- it was solely for one reason: Kieran couldn’t get a job at the Pizza shop right next to where he lives because he is mentally slow (due to his age), unlikable and generally lacks skills, so he wanted to drive up the energy prices so the other workers there who don’t live close by cannot afford to drive or take any form of transportation so the pizza shop owner will be forced to hire this really low-skilled, unlikable and slow him.
Of course for such nonsense, Trump disagreed with him so they opened fire. Then on Feb 28th, the very first casualty of the Middle East conflict appeared: Trump, shot to dead, by Kieran.
a bunch of durka durka hajis getting blown isnt really a concern for me no sir it aint
Congrats. Another $1T of the US economy cooked and oil prices raised to historical levels because illiterate mongrels like you think war is funny. Your summer offer is going to get rescinded because of the war little intern.
Someone hasn’t seen Generation Kill
i have enough generational wealth and family assets to not care about a job . sorry you didnt lmao
+ inflation. gas costing more drives prices up.
Don't come crying when your job is gone due to the current situation.
Pucker up for some stagflation buddy
I think there's been a huge misconception of how ready the IRGC are to wage war and despite a lot of their leadership being killed and their replacements being killed, they decentralised their operations effectively to keep on going. They are resorted to their last area of advantage (at least in the short-term) of the Strait of Hormuz and right now it will only be a US Naval effort, with limited or no EU support to successfully open it.
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From the strategic side of things, I presume the hope (originally) was to give the Iranians a quick and decisive thrashing over a week or so: destroy their nuclear sites, kill their leadership, and then go back to the negotiating table. The US admin must have been having dreams of Iraq 1. There are definitely similarities between the two, but where Iraq was coming off a major war in the last 10 years when the global condemnation and invasion came, Iran, a country with double the population and hyper-advantageous terrain, has had 40 years to prepare for this. On top of that, we were moving to some kind of detente with the JCPOA in 2015, and ever since it's been a bad look for the US to keep pressuring Iran without global support.
The Iranians are not a bunch of Boy Scouts. I don't think the Israelis or the US appreciated the size of task ahead of them when they started this. I haven't a clue why the US originally negotiated with Iran while moving forces into the area (not very subtle) before dropping it and going 0 to 100. Now the West realizes what the Iranians have known since the revolution, which is that all Iran needs to do is fuck with the flow of oil long enough (a month or two at most) and the entire planet either moves to renewables in quick order or falls into stagflation.
Worst-case scenario is this is some sort of end-times nonsense manifest as is claimed with Iraq 2, when Bush reportedly called Chirac stating the invasion was to bring about the apocalypse. There are reports of the same rhetoric circulating through the US military, and we already know the Secretary of Defense's religious tendencies.
Do you realize how sketchy it is for the IRGC, the largest funder of terrorism over the past 40 years, to have a nuke? + the amount of lives and money (American and otherwise) that have been lost from the terror they have funded? Put aside all moral or ethical considerations, purely from a financial perspective it was likely a wise decision for the US to have struck while the iron was hot.
They want a nuke because they are getting pummeled rn and North Korea isn't. It's not that hard to figure out......
Thanks for having some long-term geopolitical vision...
Trump said both Iran's nuclear program and any of its nuclear ambitions were "obliterated" during the last bombings in June, and then said before the strikes that Iran was a "week away" from getting a nuke.
Trump is being inconsistent about WMDs/nukes, just like Bush.
My brother in Christ they don’t have any nukes and Netanyahu has been saying that Iran is “1yr away from getting a nuke” almost every year FOR THE LAST 30 YEARS. Also, we were told the same thing about Sadam having WMD’s, there ended up being zero WMD’s.
So the intel about them having nukes is bullshit and a deception in order to get us to go to war. Stop spreading this narrative; we’ve spent $12BB (in under 2 wks) of money that YOUR direct descendants; MY direct descendants, and ALL other future relatives that every American has will have to pay back, plus interest, in order to advance Israel’s territorial expansion eastward. That’s what this is about, you’re a fucking fool if you believe otherwise
Israel expansion eastward? Why don’t you take a look at a map and let me know where you think this war is going to allow them to expand.
Long response, but there’s a lot to it. The strongest case for confronting Iran militarily is that the conflict already exists. It just isn’t being fought openly.
For decades Iran has built a system designed to wage war indirectly. Instead of deploying its own army across the Middle East, it funds, arms, trains, and directs proxy groups that carry out attacks on its behalf. The Revolutionary Guard, particularly the Quds Force, sits at the center of this network. Through it, Iran has managed to project power across the region while largely avoiding direct retaliation.
Look at the results.
Hezbollah in Lebanon has grown into one of the most heavily armed non-state actors in the world, with tens of thousands of rockets capable of striking Israel. The group functions less like a militia and more like an Iranian forward operating force on Israel’s border. In Iraq, Iranian-backed militias have repeatedly attacked U.S. troops, undermined the Iraqi government, and kept the country unstable long after the war with ISIS ended. In Yemen, the Houthis have used Iranian missiles and drones to strike Saudi cities and disrupt shipping in the Red Sea, threatening one of the most important trade routes on the planet. Hamas has received years of Iranian funding, weapons, and training.
These are not isolated conflicts. They are pieces of a deliberate strategy.
Iran’s leadership understands that direct war with the United States or Israel would be extremely costly. So instead they built a system where they can create instability everywhere while maintaining distance from the violence. Rockets fly, shipping lanes are threatened, American troops are attacked, regional wars erupt, and Tehran claims it has nothing to do with it.
The chaos this strategy has created across the Middle East isn’t theoretical. Lebanon has effectively been captured by Hezbollah. Iraq’s sovereignty is constantly undermined by militias loyal to Tehran. Yemen’s civil war has dragged on for years with catastrophic humanitarian consequences. Global shipping routes have been threatened by missile and drone attacks launched by Iranian proxies.
And every time the international community responds cautiously or avoids escalation, the lesson Tehran learns is that the strategy works.
This is why the proxy network matters so much. It allows Iran to expand influence and wage conflict across multiple countries without ever facing the full consequences of its actions. As long as that structure remains intact, the violence continues. The militias will keep receiving weapons, money, and direction from the Revolutionary Guard, and the cycle repeats.
There is also a looming strategic problem. If Iran eventually acquires nuclear weapons, the entire system becomes far more dangerous. Nuclear deterrence would give Tehran a shield behind which it could continue supporting proxy groups with far less fear of retaliation. The combination of nuclear capability and a region-wide militia network would dramatically shift the balance of power in the Middle East.
At that point, stopping the problem becomes far harder.
The argument for war is therefore not about starting a new conflict. It is about ending a long-running strategy of proxy warfare that has destabilized the region for decades. As long as Iran can coordinate and supply these groups without facing serious consequences, there is little incentive for it to stop.
If the Revolutionary Guard’s infrastructure, missile systems, and command networks were significantly degraded, the proxy network would weaken. Hezbollah, the militias in Iraq, the Houthis, and other groups rely heavily on Iranian funding, weapons, and expertise. Cut off the source and their capabilities shrink dramatically.
From that perspective, confronting Iran directly is the only realistic way to break the system that has fueled so much violence across the Middle East. Continuing to tolerate the proxy strategy simply ensures the chaos continues indefinitely.
so when are you signing up to fight, buddy?
I’m 40+, so no time soon. I do have enlisted family, so I understand the sensitivity. The hope right now is that this can be solved without US boots on the ground. If that changes, so does the calculus. As of right now, I personally believe this is probably the most worthwhile military endeavor since WW2 (not saying much). I think I laid out the alternative effectively above.
This is well thought out and written - I appreciate commentary like this in these forums.
This was written by ChatGPT.
Del
This is a great write up, the TLDR is the U.S. basically turned a 20+ year Cold War hot & wants to avoid a situation where Iran has to be taken seriously as a world power if they have nukes. In a thinly controlled proxy network with an unstable regime, not knowing the devil who may have access to those nukes at any given time does give a bit more credit to choice of escalation here.
Makes you wonder exactly what the best order of operations is here, it seems at best we can hope for freeing the Strait of Hormuz without boots on the ground, otherwise we’ve just plunged ourselves into another forever war scenario with all of the work to be done laid out above.
This is not something that gets done in 2 years and given the weakness of the economy at home, a war hawk presidential candidate will not prevail in ‘28. Assuming the calculus isn’t a full scale invasion before then (wouldn’t put it past this administration) how far do we get in the next 2 years and what’s the long term risk of unfinished business in this region with a wounded, but not defeated, Iran?
could you provide examples of that? cause I feel like American troops were attacked much less if at all, and regional wars were not that significant before Trump started the war on a whim.
During the Iraq War in the 2000s, Iranian-backed militias used explosively formed penetrators against U.S. troops, which killed hundreds of troops.
In October 1983, Hezbollah carried out the Beirut barracks bombing that killed 220 U.S. Marines. More recently, in December 2019, a rocket attack on the K-1 Air Base in Iraq attributed to Kataib Hezbollah killed an American contractor and wounded U.S. personnel, and later that same month Iran-backed militia supporters stormed the U.S. embassy compound in Baghdad.
In January 2020, Iran directly launched ballistic missiles at Al Asad Airbase in Iraq, injuring more than 100 U.S. service members with traumatic brain injuries. 2019 through 2021, Iran-backed militias carried out repeated rocket attacks on U.S. bases such as Al Asad and Erbil. In October 2021, a coordinated drone and rocket attack on the U.S. garrison at Al-Tanf in Syria was attributed by the Pentagon to Iran.
There are also multiple clear examples of major regional conflicts tied to Iran and its proxies well before this current conflict. In 2006, Hezbollah, backed and armed by Iran, fought a full-scale war with Israel, firing roughly 4,000 rockets into northern Israel over the course of the conflict and displacing hundreds of thousands of civilians.
In Syria, beginning in 2011, Iran played a central role in supporting the Assad regime, deploying Revolutionary Guard forces and coordinating Hezbollah and other militias, which helped turn the conflict into a prolonged and far more destructive regional war.
In Yemen, starting around 2014, Houthi forces took control of large parts of the country, leading to a years-long war with a Saudi-led coalition that has included missile and drone strikes on Saudi cities and infrastructure.
In Iraq after 2003 and especially during and after the fight against ISIS, Iranian-backed militias became powerful actors that contributed to ongoing instability and conflict within the country.
In 2019, attacks widely attributed to Iran or its proxies struck Saudi Aramco facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais, temporarily knocking out about 5 percent of global oil production and demonstrating the broader regional and economic impact of these conflicts.
I actually live in America have you heard of it? It isn't in the middle east which is a place we should have no involvement.
Really helpful contribution. Truly insightful stuff. You should consider a career in foreign service.
The most valuable company founded in California-The California Arabian Standard Oil Company (AKA: Saudi-ARAMCO) would like to have a word with you.
I could do the same about Israel. Made up state that has been the most destabilising force in the middle east.
The only reason they can be a rogue state is the US veto and their stolen nuclear weapons.
By all means, “do the same”. I look forward to dismantling each and every point you make
In the other thread I thought it was a nothing burger from the start. That prediction may very well be wrong. I thought we were just bombing some more military targets like we did with their nuclear facility last year. Turns out we had much broader aims unfortunately.
While it's far from over and Iran could still well capitulate, I'm quite nervous about the situation. The Iranian regime survived. Maybe I'm wrong but I don't see how they could capitulate on the SOH situation and still save face. They would be the biggest b****** on planet earth if they did that.
So it's looking like we are going to get a protracted war and high energy prices all while the economy is weakening. Not good!
I'm particularly mad because this runs the risk of delegitimizing the Trump presidency which would in turn mean the end of his immigration agenda which was my primary reason for supporting him (alongside the economy but he has also been not so good on that front too). What an own goal that would be. All to appease the Zionist factions in the US who hardly supported him in the very first place (how many articles I could write about the never-Trump antics of Ben Shapiro, Mark Levin, etc.).
Feb 28: Trump is No Longer expected to address the nation…..
Imagine thinking our war with Iran began in 2026.
One side effect that has a pos and neg angle that's been under-discussed
POS -- Gulf states image of a peaceful oasis with excellent tax regime is over. Means there is less net attraction of talent & capital from the West to Dubai (pos for the West)
NEG -- Gulf states are going to be unhappy with US for shattering their modernization journey into becoming a global hub. May rotate closer to China
Del
You got me, I’m a Mossad agent because I understand history and the region. In 5 years, if Iran has a nuclear weapon and oil is back above $100, you’ll be the guy saying, “why didn’t we prevent this?” Not to mention the outlook in 10-20 years if we allow what happened in Lebanon to spread elsewhere.
You think it can’t happen in the US? Look up Al Quds protests this week. Look up who the largest foreign donors to the US education system are. Look at where those dollars go. Why do you think there were these massive protests for Palestine on college campuses and not a peep in support of Iranian protestors despite the massive death toll of pro Democracy / Human Rights activists? Look at what Tucker Carlson is accused of. There is an obvious subversive effort to bring this ideology here.
But I get it. Deterrence and preventative medicine are unpopular. Just look at our healthcare system. People only want action if it benefits their wallet immediately. Very short sighted.
I think the 4k videos of Israel leveling Gaza & settler violence played a role in the protests
Not sure tho just a thought
I think it is a move to pressure China using the crude markets
China relied heavily on venezuela and middle eastern oil for its economy and when you take away 2 of its largest suppliers of oil to china it hampers asia, specifically china the most. The US produces enough crude and nat gas to keep the country going, consumers will still feel pressure, but we have a lot more than they do to weather tyhe storm to put it simply.
Cant believe it took this long into convo to bring this up. Between Venezuela and Iran, in the long run this could really hurt China.
I don’t know if there is enough crude coming out of Russia to support the entire Asian markets. After a few months they are going to have a huge problem.
There is no way you can say Venezuela and Iran aren’t related
People are definitely overthinking this. Trump thought Iran was weak and US + Israel could deliver a decisive blow so that the conflict would be over quickly. It looks like they were probably wrong because they underestimated the resolve of the Iranians. All the other justifications put out by the admin are obvious nonsense. And now they risk high oil prices and a protracted war that would be very politically damaging both domestically and with the Gulf states. Not saying that for sure is going to happen - Iran could very well fold (I certainly hope they do!)
A dumbass middle school bully is surprised when the weaker kid fights back and has no idea what to do. That's what's going on here.
Historically, the West has created this problem, and we're only making it worse. Democratically elected guy gets ousted from government and replaced by a King because he decided to nationalize Oil. The King is unjust and unpopular, gets toppled by domestic religious forces. They don't want to develop nukes, since they claim that it contradicts their religious views. Then, the West gives them good reasons to pursue the development of nukes. And now we're here.
The core issue here is that there's a serious lack of trust, and engaging in sham negotiations with Iran just to attack them right after doesn't help. The Iranian State had stopped developing nuclear weapons after the revolution, claiming that it's "unislamic". They restarted development after the Iraq-Iran War, which was also instigated and militarily supported by the West. We don't trust them, so we attack them, and they don't trust us, so they develop nukes. But us attacking them makes them trust us less, and them developing nukes makes us trust them less. It's like some Clint Eastwood movie. All participants are holding their holsters, anxiously waiting for someone to pull their weapon. Remember that in these movies, Cowboys would wait for others to draw their weapons first, so as to justify killing the aggressor as an act of self-defense. Trump and the Israelis gave them that.
The War itself exasperates the lack of trust on both sides, and will only lead to further escalation. Israel and the US are less safe today than they were about two months ago. Strategically, the War itself is disastrous, and its planning doesn't seem to be a stroke of genius either, though admittedly that was to be expected by Doofus Trump. I guess the Pentagon was planning every possible scenario that one could come up with, while Dumbo just told them to attack since they're so weak and will fail and surrender anyway. Dumbo is generally unable to see the bigger picture and only ever knows how to apply force to deal with issues he simply doesn't have the mental capabilities to understand. The US will, yet again, pay a big price for this blunder. And Israel might not even exist in a couple of decades.
This is the history MAGATards and most Americans are oblivious to, well put
Trump even admitted that "maybe we shouldn't be there" in Iran and his director of counter terrorism resigned and revealed that Iran posed no imminent threat. MAGAs are fucking retards. Any retarded MAGA who tries to contort their small, little brain into vomiting an explanation as to why we attacked Iran is writing fan fiction. There is only one reason we went into Iran and that's because Trump wants so desperately to be in the history books. Well he's going to be in there all right...as the worst president the US has ever elected who loved pedophiles, attacked our allies politically and economically, started wars, and created the worst energy crisis in history all for his own ego. In the history books will also be the retard MAGAs who put him there. Bush is probably so happy that everyone will forget about him and Iraq.
To distract people from Epstein files. Trump realized that he may get prosecuted due to his vast involvement in Epstein's pedophile ring (with his name all over the Epstein files) and decided to do something outrageous to switch attention from it. Looks like it's been relatively successful cause public's outrage did switch from Trump's involvement with Epstein to Iran war.
P.S. I'm a registered republican, but facts are facts.
Obviously this war is dumb. We are spending 1 billion a dollar a day with no apparent benefit. We are taking lots of risk with no reward. I learned in school that the higher the risk the higher the return We are getting the opposite results. The only question in my mind is why? I do not believe it has anything to do with Epstein. None of Trump's bad behavior has had a negative impact on him. My guess is that somehow Trump benefits financially from the war. I will the how to up to your imagination.
Trump literally admitting who runs the roost
https://x.com/rapidresponse47/status/2034451419420344459?s=46
There are more strategies, plans, and justifications in this thread than there are in the White House cabinet.
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