UK Budget - thoughts?

Not from a political point of view, but economically…

Better than expected? Good for growth or doused in fiction?

Curious to hear everyone's thoughts

Comments (2)

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unders, what's your opinion? Comment below:

Will bite and give my two cents. Firstly, it's hard for a Budget to get significant popularity, even harder to get a popular budget as a Conservative currently given their decline and constant changes of leadership and economic branding. From a Party that entered office under David Cameron and George Osborne who implemented austerity and made their message solely about balancing the books, to Brexiteers like Boris Johnson wanting to 'Level Up' and splash the cash and the failed circus of Truss-Kwarteng,  Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt seem to be regurgitating the sound money and reducing debt:GDP ratio. Hunt and Sunak are more importantly grown ups, have good understanding of economics and keep the markets at bay. In terms of growth; the OBR predicts growth of 1.-2.5% in the next 3 years despite the economy forecasted to shrink this year. Party due to their windfall taxes, increased corporation and National Insurance rises, inflation (already falling) will fall to 2% by the end of the year. But the likelihood is that although this budget is fairly centrist and generous in certain areas with small scale tax cuts, this (in my view) will not notably make a difference to growth. The issue for the UK growth lies on productivity and Brexit.UK productivity has been awful compared to G7 and other leading economies for a variety of reasons you could easily think of. Brexit has reduced our trade intensity, complicated things even more with red tape and bureaucracy of trade and whilst the UK remains outside of the EU Customs Unions and Single Market, it's terms of trade will not improve. And this is before we even mention it's immobile labour supply being cut off from Brexit restricting freedom of movement. So yes, the budget is not bad and it's certainly refreshing to see Sunak and Hunt (only the few remaining non-ideological and competent Tories) manufacture a decent budget that will restore confidence and public finances, but not one that will see high growth because of structural issues in the UK.

camembert, what's your opinion? Comment below:

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