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New LPs will jump at the chance to get an allocation, especially intl $$$ (see ME SWF push). Existing ones, sure maybe some exit the relationship, but many will continue to allocate. They need to put dollars to work and the alternatives are not so enticing either. Cost of doing business.

There were an absurd amount of software take privates by TB at pretty lofty valuations. They could throw them back up in the public equities space if things keep trending upwards but feel like the SW market is not at '21 levels. Will be interesting

I think both firms will be fine - definitely faring better than SLP the way I see things right now.

TB’s gonna have a rough few years with those 2021 investments, and pair that with the fundraising environment (if it stays like this), I wouldn’t be sure at all that they raise 27bn by 2025.

Think it’s a bit hard to call Vista “meh” - not saying they’re definitely going to fare better than TB (bc who fucking knows in this gd industry), but 2023 Tech PE firm of the year (not saying the title means anything, but read about their year, no shitty firm just gets that for free), just had a massive exit with PowerSchool and a similar big exit with Apptio about a year ago, with others sprinkled in between. Stayed much more disciplined in 2021, and even though they still are sitting on one or two bad investments, As of Q1 2023, Vista’s generated a 37.4% gross IRR and 3.12x gross MOIC on the 51 investments fully realized across all private equity strategies since Flagship Fund II began investing in 2000.

Wouldn’t exactly call any of that, now with a new 20B fund, “meh” with an end in sight required, but to each their own I guess

You will always take a discount to NAV or the last time your fund was marked. Otherwise the secondaries investor will not be interested. This is why secondaries were so hot in 21/22 - you'd rather take the haircut than risk catching a falling knife on the correction.

Better to "spin the wheel" with a strategic or IPO than take a certain 20-25% loss on the fund.

Maybe a continuation vehicle would be the right choice.

For software funds, minimizing hold duration is a selling point to LP's. I am saying the large equity checks written in 21/22 will require an even greater fool in the public markets since M&A activity is focused on trawling and financial acquirers are not paying those multiples anymore and don't have the equity check size appetite needed at current rates to get a deal across the line.

As a result, yes, I think you will see big turds getting kicked barefoot through the shower grate when CalPers and other LP's come knocking.