Help on offer evaluation on compensation

Joined a family office as a PE associate after starting my career for 3-4 years at MBB management consulting. Due to various reasons I decided to leave again after a couple of months and now received an offer from a growth equity PE firm. The offer is attractive overall, but it would be great to get some community evaluation on it, especially around the compensation part as I have some doubts there.

• Small, sector-specialized fund with <$0.5B AUM, based in central Europe
• Starting as "freshly promoted" VP (vs. senior associate)
• Base $150k + $45k bonus
• Carry from two funds, expected worth $250k + $450k annually, but first interest only expected in 2 years and bulk significantly later

There are also some soft factors to consider: job would be much closer to my home, team culture seams great and hours seem to be on the more reasonable side (with the natural variance from deal time). As we have small kids and my partner also follows a career, this is significant. However, I would need to specialize in an industry I had so far little contact with so I need to get up to speed quickly.

The base + bonus is significantly below my current job and I struggle to evaluate the carry compensation as I was so far not much in contact with it. Quick research shows that base + bonus generally seems higher on this level but there is little to none carry. How do you view the compensation and what do I have to be aware of regarding carry?

Further, how would you evaluate career prospects following this? Obviously this should be a long term solution, but if things don't work out from the industry focus, I might need to reshuffle.