Learning to Infra Model

I’m starting at an infrastructure PE fund that has very detailed modeling which I am hearing is the norm for these types of industries. Does anyone have any tips on the best way to ramp modeling skills? As some context, I’m very comfortable building LBOs for more “simple” industries and have no issues knocking out a Peak Frameworks level model (which is obviously not terribly difficult), 

I’ve noticed the operating models can be very complex and detailed with granular builds and every model looks unique depending on the sub vertical so I am not sure rebuilding from scratch is the best use of time. For the advanced infra modelers, do you guys have advice for how you got better when you first started? Does it come with industry knowledge

Also when you get a model for the first time, are you tracing every single row / mechanic (down to the actual raw data tabs it’s pulling from) or just high level financials and how they flow? I don’t mind doing this but I am trying to balance efficiency and thoroughness, but also happy to put in the hours to go through row by row if it’s part of the growing pains and is the best way folks have learned. Would appreciate any advice or insight from those who have gone through this ramp and how you approached it then and now as someone with more experience. 

5 Comments
 

Starting at an infrastructure PE fund with detailed modeling requirements can be a steep learning curve, but with the right approach, you can ramp up effectively. Based on the most helpful WSO content and insights from advanced modelers, here’s how you can tackle this:

1. Understand the Fundamentals of Infrastructure Modeling

  • Industry-Specific Knowledge: Infrastructure models often include unique elements like interest during construction (IDC), debt service reserve accounts (DSRA), and detailed cash flow waterfalls. Familiarize yourself with these concepts as they are critical to understanding the mechanics of these models.
  • Granular Builds: Unlike simpler LBO models, infrastructure models require detailed operational assumptions (e.g., energy production, toll revenues, or maintenance costs). Start by understanding the key drivers for the specific sub-verticals (e.g., renewable energy, transportation, utilities).

2. Leverage Resources for Advanced Modeling

  • VBA and UDFs: Many advanced modelers recommend learning VBA User Defined Functions (UDFs) to handle circular references (e.g., IDC or DSRA) instead of relying on iterative calculations. This can make your models more dynamic and efficient.
  • Free Resources: Check out the free e-book on model optimization from F1F9, which is highly regarded for its quality. Additionally, explore Ed Bodmer’s project finance exercises, which cover A-Z project finance modeling and are tailored for infrastructure assets.
  • Templates and Guides: Use financial modeling templates available on WSO to get a head start. These can provide a solid foundation for understanding how detailed models are structured.

3. Approach to Reviewing Models

  • High-Level First, Then Drill Down: When reviewing a model for the first time, start with the high-level financials (e.g., income statement, cash flow, and balance sheet) to understand the overall flow. Once you grasp the big picture, trace the mechanics row by row for critical sections like debt schedules, cash flow waterfalls, and operational drivers.
  • Focus on Key Drivers: Identify the most important drivers and assumptions for the specific asset or project. This will help you prioritize your review and avoid getting lost in less impactful details.
  • Raw Data Tabs: While it’s not always necessary to trace every single row, understanding how raw data feeds into the model is crucial for accuracy and troubleshooting. Over time, you’ll develop an intuition for which areas require deeper scrutiny.

4. Balance Efficiency and Thoroughness

  • Iterative Learning: Don’t aim for perfection on your first pass. Focus on understanding the structure and key mechanics, then revisit the model to refine your knowledge.
  • Ask Questions: Leverage your team’s expertise. Senior colleagues can provide insights into industry-specific nuances and modeling best practices.
  • Practice: Rebuilding models from scratch isn’t always efficient, but selectively recreating key sections (e.g., debt schedules or cash flow waterfalls) can solidify your understanding.

5. Develop Industry Knowledge

  • Learn the Sub-Verticals: Each sub-vertical (e.g., renewable energy, transportation) has unique characteristics. Spend time understanding the operational and financial drivers for the assets your fund focuses on.
  • Case Studies: Review case studies or past deals to see how models were structured and what assumptions were used.

6. Advanced Tips for Growth

  • Dynamic Sensitivities: Learn to build models that can handle dynamic sensitivities without breaking. This is a critical skill for infrastructure modeling.
  • Scenario Analysis: Practice creating robust scenario analyses to evaluate different outcomes (e.g., changes in interest rates, construction delays).
  • Continuous Learning: Stay updated with industry trends and modeling techniques. Resources like WSO forums, podcasts, and newsletters can be invaluable.

By combining these strategies, you’ll not only improve your modeling skills but also develop a deeper understanding of the infrastructure sector. Remember, the learning curve is steep, but with consistent effort, you’ll gain confidence and expertise over time.

Sources: Modeling as a professional vs. as a student, Q&A - Infrastructure PE & IBD, Q&A - Infrastructure PE & IBD, Infrastructure Private Equity Basic Skills

I'm an AI bot trained on the most helpful WSO content across 17+ years.
 

Going to try and help where I can as I have  experience with operating models in this space. Cannot speak for deal models in the same way.

I’d argue the priority list to gain an understanding of the operating model is:

  1. Understand the business plan and its drivers (most recent approved forecast or long range plan)
  2. Find how those assumptions flow through the model
  3. Then go through the model mechanics to see how drivers = value
 
Most Helpful

Best way to ramp up modelling skills is to build the model yourself. For efficiency, you don't have to build everything (blindly copying its entirety) but get comfortable really quickly with using flags, offset, index functions, and Macros. If the team your joining has certain stylistic approach (offsets over index match), no nested-if functions etc - would also recommend speaking with the associate or senior associate for preference. 

On modelling specifically, you can breakdown the sections and rinse / repeat / ideally compare against other models that you've come across and just retain that knowledge. Revenue and Opex build up, how it's broken down (contracted vs uncontracted), inflation-linked etc. 

Debt builds - how is it sized, repayment periods, DSCR, lock-up covenants. Any resizing of debt / regearing involved?

Tax / Depreciation - this takes a while to get comfortable with imo, because you can be modelling DTAs / DTLs very extensively (difference in depreciation rates on Capex, expiry of TLCFs), maybe even IFRS 16 conventions on leases. I'm not sure if this is looked at extensively in other non-infra PE subsectors.

Sources / Uses of Funds - linked to Debt build, but on the Equity side, is it just vanilla equity injection, use of Shareholder Loans, Prefs?

Cash distributions / valuation - how are the returns calculated? Asset level returns vs Platform level returns (both Project IRR and Equity IRR), cash yields, MOIC. Are they calculated simply via FCFE or actual cash distributions (SHL interest / Dividend Distributions / Upstream loan)? Use of refinancing to juice IRR? 

Ideally as you go through models sent your way, you keep track of the assumptions as well, so you can easily check against other models you've screened and summarize how new investment compares to others rejected. 

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