BX RE: BREDS vs. BREP?

Can someone tell me more about the pros and cons of doing RE acquisitions at BX (BREP) vs doing BREDS (Bx RE Debt Solutions)? Are there different exit opps, does one have more transferrable skills than the other, etc? Also if anyone knows how the interview technicals differ that would be helpful. 

19 Comments
 

I've heard a few of our partners discussing BX lately... The conversations are usually underscored by confusion about their ability to pay the sized premiums that are being paid. 

I'm not one to count people's money, but ... with BX's cost of debt so low, the returns could make sense if you're delivering a 6% dividend and calling it a day; however, the cost basis per unit and the going-in cap rates are so aggressive it is hard to see how you can back into any type of attractive IRR in 2-5 years. 

This is all relative to non-core/core+ product, in non-core markets; ie there is risk in all the deals I see.  

Does anyone have any insight into how they look at deals?  

I know RE seems like a no brainer looking backward, but if anything in the economy or RE fundamentals changes, the exits become very unattractive. 

Interested to hear other's thoughts.  

 
Commissions and fees

I've heard a few of our partners discussing BX lately... The conversations are usually underscored by confusion about their ability to pay the sized premiums that are being paid. 

I'm not one to count people's money, but ... with BX's cost of debt so low, the returns could make sense if you're delivering a 6% dividend and calling it a day; however, the cost basis per unit and the going-in cap rates are so aggressive it is hard to see how you can back into any type of attractive IRR in 2-5 years. 

This is all relative to non-core/core+ product, in non-core markets; ie there is risk in all the deals I see.  

Does anyone have any insight into how they look at deals?  

I know RE seems like a no brainer looking backward, but if anything in the economy or RE fundamentals changes, the exits become very unattractive. 

Interested to hear other's thoughts.  

BREIT raised a gazillion dollars and has to deploy it no matter what. Imo - their multi family and logistics portfolios will do just fine given the sector tailwinds

Have no idea on earth how they will exit, or who they will exit to

 

So that in and of itself means they will not do just fine... if your hurdle rate is above 15%, which I'd imagine it is... like i said, if the objective is to deliver a coupon and call it a day, that is different, but to generate returns at the investor's level of even 15%, i dont see how its possible if 1 or 2 variables go wrong (whereas ALL variables have been going super well the last few years)

 

They're obviously aware of the overblown premiums they're paying, but for them it's just a game of scale and strength at that point. Now, with the current insane cap rate compression across MF, Industrial, Data Centers, etc, they're actually able to get a refi or recap at an insanely high value/low cap basis and get a massive cash out when taking on the new debt, usually less than 1-2 years after purchase. 2020 and 2021 for them was golden undet this MO, they hit returns north of 4x of the usual 6%. Debt plays perhaps the biggest role in this strategy, and as long as lenders are willing to finance BX's deals at the below 3-4% cap rate level, refis and recaps are insanely attractive vis a vis exits. 

 

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