PE Associate Trying to Understand the Truth Behind Retail Trading for a Living
Please give me the cold hard truth.
I am a PE associate who has a very nice comp and lifestyle, but am looking to transition to a point where I can become an entrepreneur and work for myself at some point (realistically in 5-15 years). Ias a side business about a year ago and it has gone pretty well but not well enough to quit my day job. I think as my account scales over the next 5-15 years, at some point I should reach a moment where I am good enough to do this FT. Is this possible or am I crazy?
Everyone says "90% fail", "you can't compete againstand institutions", etc. I understand that the odds are low but I think I can accomplish this for the reasons below. Tell me if I'm naive:
- I understand discretionary trading for what it is - a pursuit of random probabilities where I don't need to know where the market is going in order to profit. I don't trade off of WSB, I avoid shit like AMC, I don't "diamond hand", I am not expecting quick riches.
- I believe my edge can adapt to any market. I purely trade on market structure, price action and order flow. That's it. No gurus, no tweets, no indicators, no intuition. Just a repeatable system with a proven edge.
- I only trade highly liquid markets (S&P and NASDAQ mainly). Sometimes I dabble in liquid equities but that's ~10% of my trades.
- I negotiated low commissions and fees from my broker.
- I set tight stop losses and don't delude myself into dreaming of big winners. Most of my trades are 3:1 R:R. Sometimes I let a winner run but I'll raise my stop accordingly.
- I understand that markets constantly evolve and that I always have to improve my system and my trading. I have spent countless hours over the last /psychology/risk management/reading /etc - and I am willing to continue doing this for the rest of my trading career.
- I relentlessly journal my trades and analyze my performance and psychology to ensure that everything is "working" and that I am constantly learning.
When people say "90% fail", I think they're looking at literally a population of people who merely opened a brokerage account. When you narrow that population to people who take it as seriously as I do and run their trading like a business, the success factor appears higher.
Am I crazy, or can I make this work at some point in my life where I can support a family solely on my day trading?