lol, thoughts monkeys?
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haha, I was just going to post the same thing. The early stages with Icahn is great.
Ackman going H.A.M.
Ackman: You're bullying me. Icahn: No, I'm not going to let you bully me ... hello?
hello
This is fantastic television. Icahn keeps throwing out his four letter bombs.
This is definitely Dan Loeb's reaction to this whole debacle.
^^hahahah, captain, if there's anything that could sum up the viewers' perception about this interview, you just captured it. Well done.
Omg... this was too mch... the guys in the background going "Whoooooooooo! Woooooooooooooah!" And icahn calling bullshit and calling everyone a liar.... simply amazing. Never seen anything like this.
I rarely unmute CNBC, especially on Friday. But that was some of the best tv in history.
http://imgur.com/u4zwEZ6
CNBC should have had this song playing in the background.
http://www.youtube.com/embed/z5OXON8vIaA
Holy hell. Take it outside fellows. I've got $20 on the old guy, he looks crazier
This is too cool. Anyone have the replay? Didnt catch the first 5 minutes.
CNBC is gonna re air it at 230pm
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000143591
"I was raised in a tough neighborhood in Queens, hes like the little jewish kid crying when he gets bullied"
The way Icahn says "this ackman guy" so dismissively is ridiculous. This is wild stuff and I'm pretty blown away that this is actually on TV. Great stuff.
Icahn is a great investor, but he may want to think about ceasing the public appearances. I've been blacked out and been able to put together more coherent sentences.
LoL that is what I thought too. "Bah bah be buh." WTF! Maybe his blood pressure was through the roof. I think Bill Ackman handled the situation better. He did not used any profane language. And in my opinion he was on the right. I think Icahn is just mad because: A) He hates Ackman. B) Ackman is going to make money on his short of HLF while Icahn will lose money on his long position. C) He hates Ackman. Dude has no place to stand when he criticized Ackman of publicly saying he is short HLF. Icahn himself has gone to the press with shorts of his own. And also, he is wrong in saying Bill is taking too much risks by going short 20% of a company shares. He has done that too. I saw the whole thing and Icanh is just a bully as Bill said. I don't have any positions in HLF, but I sure hope the shares go down to ZERO now.
I don't think Icahn initially knew Ackman was on the line with him.
this is truly ridiculous, I can't believe they spent time on TV washing their dirty laundry...I agree with the previous comment that Icahn sounds bitter and pretty lame using "that guy Ackman"...anyway, can't believe any of these guys agreed to discuss this kind of stuff on TV...
OH SHIT, OH SHIIIIT!!! WS beef, at it's finest. This just made my shitty Friday awesome.
How much would y'all pay to see these two get in the ring and go at w/ their decrepite old bodies!?
Wow, Icahn is a real prick eh? If he wanted to screw over Ackman he should just buy a majority stake in the company... put his money where his mouth is. He's a coward and whats this nonsense about him complaining about being bullied when hes throwing Ackman under the bus with those jewish comments? Can't wait to see whose right. I've got Ackman's side on this one though.
I didnt know jerry springer invited hedgefund managers on his show
What a great way to spend 30 minutes!
I'm on Ackman's side here. Don't see anything wrong with what he did.
Icahn is a prick but he's an amazingly talented investor.
Icahn sounds like a god damn Italian restaurant owner in Yonkers. Sounds bat shit crazy. Esp the way he attacks the host hahaha. This is some hilarious stuff.
Icahn just sounds like a crazy old man; ridiculous.
The best part was when Icahn cursed and the traders were cheering as if they were at an actual fight.
Jerry Jerry Jerry!
This is the most amount of fun I had watching CNBC...and also watching Mandy as well :)
http://www.thereformedbroker.com/2013/01/25/here-it-is-the-full-icahn-v…
There's the full video.
This kinda thing needs to be on TV more often; can't beat a pair of talented angry billionaires shouting at each other. Ackman's pitch about how he's trying to save innocent people from investing in Herbalife is a bit far-fetched, but Icahn definitely came off worse in this interview.
I haven't put my finger on why, but Ackman grows on me each time I see him on TV. He seemed much more classy then Icahn - who definitely came across as the crazy grandpa type.
This was gold
Icaahn just seems like a weird, crazy, bitter old man. Quite frankly, I think Ackman schooled the old timer.
I think Ackman was more concerned about his reputation being ruined, but after this I wouldn't be surprised if he saw more people wanting to invest with him. It seems pretty clear that he was mostly right since he kept giving facts and he even mentioned most of these documents are online for everyone to see, while Icahn kept talking about his lawyer who he is in love with.
Ackman may have had more facts, but I think Icahn won the argument and solidified his position as Wall Street tough guy of 2013. The only facts that matter in the investment world are track records and I'd sure as hell rather have my money with Icahn, that is if he was still accepting money from outside investors.
What is Icahn's annualized return? Ackman's after 2011 was in the mid-20s... that's not too shabby.
this is a great lesson....ichan isnt a hand shake kind of guy and neither is finance...agree with earlier posts ackman has grown on me, loved his quote on HFL in his first post-research meeting with sorkin....Sorkin-"what if this short doesnt work out and HFL isnt a p scheme"...Ackman - "well they've run out of markets and theyre selling diet supplements in Nigeria"....instant classic
Those who are saying Ichan was out of control, profound, should not go on TV etc...Not sure if you followed Ichan before that is exactly how he is in every interview, he is Carl Ichan is some punk from CNBC tries to steer an interview he is going to own them big time, he only is nice to Melissa on Fast Money cause he prolly wants to hit that one day. Otherwise is an confident, arrogant, stubborn old SOB.
Ichan doenst know how to handle the press at all. In his very first interview, Ichan fell in sleep and interview got canceled. Ever since interviewer refused to interview him.
If you guys want to know about Carl Ichan,
http://www.amazon.com/King-Icahn-Biography-Renegade-Capitalist/dp/0525936130/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1359301858&sr=8-1&keywords=king+ichan
FTC saying this presser isn't about HLF, but very interested what they will be doing here... In either event, if I were Ackman I'd have started covering today.
Just saw the video. Holy shit that guy Icahn is insane or possibly senile.
wow, Ichan sounds like an idiot
Slightly related: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100427307
[quote=Macro Arbitrage]Slightly related: http://www.cnbc.com/id/100427307[/quote]
Is Karl Bass the most well-spoken individual of all time? Probably?
Carl Icahn won? (Originally Posted: 02/28/2018)
Anyone still remember the face-off between Carl and Bill on CNBC few years ago? Bill Ackman recently gave up his position on Herbalife.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-28/ackman-is-said-to-ce…
I have no idea how since in my opinion it's obvious that Herbalife's a pyramid scheme.
Completely agree with you, but Ackman has been hurting lately.
Problem with selling short is usually the target will stay liquid longer than the seller can stay liquid.
Is herbalife a pyramid scheme, probably? Ackman did the work, figured it out, one day it might come to be. Ackman got hurt because the company was able to restructure and last year was a great bull market.
Ackman is BY FAR the worst famous investor of all time. The outsized bets he has taken are absurd and he just got his ass pounded by Icahn. So, yeah Icahn won...in a blowout, I might add. How do you have consecutive negative years in this kind of market? It’s amazing to me that everyone hasn’t withdrawn yet.
A friend of mine commented that it was somewhat amusing how Icahn described himself as harboring no resentment towards Ackman over the whole ordeal. If anything, Icahn wouldn't be the one harboring any resentment since he was the one who benefited from all this. I think it would be more interesting to get Ackman's opinion on whether he felt there was any bad blood remaining...
Anyway, it seems pretty clear that Herbalife is just the Amway of nutrition. I don't think anyone doubts that Pershing Square had done their proper research, but you must wonder what level of conviction warrants a $1bn bet on a stock with a PT of $0. All said, the bet was probably too risky to warrant an allocation as large as any other for Pershing Square. And obviously Icahn didn't help; all those expenses for additional campaigning and lobbying ended up pushing Ackman's break-even price on Herbalife to $30.
I do feel bad for Ackman, though these things do happen. Should be a good cautionary tale to the rest of the activists.
Icahn says he doesn't like/respect Ackman after HLF bet (Originally Posted: 01/24/2013)
Hilarious.
JCP appears to be a disaster that continues to get worse. TGT was a bust. HLF bet could turn against Ackman as well. His GGP investment was great, but that was sourced by one of his junior guys, not him (rumor has it the guy got $20m at ~26/7). Could we be seeing Ackman's status unravel? Will his investors begin to leave?
I've personally heard of how he deals with management teams and boards and find the stories repulsive. People on the buyside typically don't like him very much and not because they're jealous. I'd imagine that this behavior doesn't go unpunished forever.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/icahn-says-no-respect-for-bill…
I hesitate to make a broad claim like this, but I thought this was widely understood by most in the value space. Ackman has a big head and thinks that whatever his first impression of a business is must be the right one. He had no problem taking credit for the GGP play as loudly as possible, and his approach to activism hasn't exactly yielded much fruit for the most part. In the value activism space we consider him somewhere between a John Paulson and a Kim Jong Il. High profile successes combined with a stubborn disposition that kills all productivity.
But let's not try and pretend the HLF bet is the reason why Icahn hates Ackman. This isn't the first time they've come to blows.
On a marginally related note, I wanted to post a thread earlier (but decided against it) trashing a guy I've loved for a long time: David Einhorn. I know in the wake of the last Greenlight letter it's shortsighted to say he's just not as good as I thought he was, but it's actually a pattern of having a track record of long positions that are inconsistent with the reputation he's been given as one of the great "value guys" out there. Sure, he is, but his love for Apple, Marvel, Seagate, and even General Motors has had me at least a little bit puzzled. And did I forget gold? Call me old school but gold is pretty much off limits to the Buffetologist in me. His short book is one I've always appreciated but why hadn't he covered on GMCR by now? You can't ride that business to zero...
Too much coffee today, I apologize.
I feel the same way about Ackmans retarded bet on JCP.
The fact that a value guy owns Apple is puzzling. This is such a market sentiment/growth expectations stock its ridiculous.
I'm glad someone agrees with me.
I spoke with someone who was an early investor in Ackman's fund and he said that Bill knows the bottom five basis points of his portfolio better than the analyst on the name does. He truly does deep-work.
That doesn't mean that what you say is incorrect - I completely agree. He sure does love himself.
I think a value investor can like gold (I've never owned it, for the record) - Buffett's also full of shit regarding his hatred of metals since Berkshire had a huge position in silver in the late 90's. Einhorn did well on Seagate and GM (so far, I think). I've disliked Apple for a long time and didn't get that one, either. His long positions often confuse me, but he's a wiz when it comes to the short side.
BH -
Agree with your analysis. And they were involved in a lawsuit as recently as last year. Ackman's definitely a smart guy, but his ego gets in the way. JCP really is the perfect example. Once the initial turnaround failed, I think he should have cut his losses and sold. His catalyst fell through, his thesis was wrong. But now he is on CNBC promoting the store. Even if it does bounce back, the CAGR on that investment will likely be inferior to just having bought SPY.
As for Einhorn, the gold bet really baffled me too. I think most value managers hate QE, but they don't load up on gold. Not a fan of the CMG short either, honestly. But his returns are decent enough and relatively consistent, unlike Ackman's.
Investors get burned when they venture outside their field of expertise. Sometimes it's smart to deviate, but any successful manager should watch for style drift. Hell, it even applies to PAs. Almost all of my investment losses are attributable to instances where I invested outside my area of expertise. The market is too competitive to expect high returns with poor knowledge of a given space.
Saw the video- don't agree with Icahn. Doesn't seem to be anything wrong with Ackman's public denouncing of Herbalife. It's very similar to what Einhorn did with Allied. If a company is engaged in illegal activities, a short seller who recognizes that before anyone else should be able to inform the SEC of this and profit from it. Nothing unsavory about it, and it's even more admirable that he's pledging to donate his personal profits to charity.
Ichan got sued by this guy
The Chipotle in New York by me is not nearly as full as it use to be. I am an avid fan of Chipotle. Everyday I go there and see it empty, maybe because of how cold it is, I keep thinking that Q4 and Q12013 will be bad
Qdoba>Taco Bell>CMG
Blackhat, curious on your thoughts re: why AAPL, STX, MRVL, and GM longs puzzled you
Einhorn's long bets have certainly been mediocre. Do you all think he holds companies like Apple that are likely to outpace the S&P (until the growth story gets questioned) allowing him to just sit back and watch his short bets play out?
[quote=DontMakeMeShortYou]Hilarious.
JCP appears to be a disaster that continues to get worse. TGT was a bust. HLF bet could turn against Ackman as well. His GGP investment was great, but that was sourced by one of his junior guys, not him (rumor has it the guy got $20m at ~26/7). Could we be seeing Ackman's status unravel? Will his investors begin to leave?
I've personally heard of how he deals with management teams and boards and find the stories repulsive. People on the buyside typically don't like him very much and not because they're jealous. I'd imagine that this behavior doesn't go unpunished forever.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-01-24/icahn-says-no-respect-for-bill…]
The smartest guy I know in this business told me 2 years ago that he seriously believed that Ackman would blow up again.
And fucking with Icahn is just stupid. The guys has $15bn+ that is just his own money. If he wanted to and there wasn't the risk of being called out on market manipulation he could just buy up a huge stake on HLF and pull his borrow.
I don't have a view on his dealings with management teams, would love to hear stories if anyone wants to share. I do think that his risk management has been fairly poor, evidenced by the fact that he has blown up once already. Getting massively concentrated in a short and then telling the whole world seems like a pretty dangerous endeavor. You're basically begging for people to mess with you. Even if you have 100% conviction, by establishing your position that way, you materially alter the risk/reward.
As far as Einhorn goes, I think he is pretty late to the short iron ore trade. With China picking up and risk appetite improving, those stocks are a risky short. I agree with the long-term thesis, but I don't think the trade has been timed very well. Too much has already been said about AAPL so I don't want to add to the chorus with my armchair quarterbacking.
Also I wanted to add that it feels good to have a real discussion about these managers, instead of the usual horde of college students touching themselves.
This. +1, haha.
Great thread but the most disconcerting comment I've seen, which makes me truly question the direction the quality of human beings on this website (and in the world in general) is headed, is the Qdoba > TBell > CMG statement. This is, in all material aspects, unequivocally false. And is in fact completely backwards. The chicken argument is invalid, as any self-respecting man of the street would select steak over chicken unless he's with his woman. And believe me, never take your woman to Chipotle if you intend on spending time with her afterwards.
Now that I got that out of my system - do keep in mind that past performance is not indicative of future performance (CFA Level 1, anyone?). So just because STX has done well for Einhorn in the past doesn't mean it's not worthy of reevaluation now, and same goes for GM. The STX argument was made well by a previous poster so I'll leave that one alone. On any argument other than price, it's difficult to justify picking General Motors over any other mass manufacturing auto company. And if your one sticking point happens to be price, I'm of the opinion that proper analysis would lead one to buy Ford. More streamlined, exceptionally stronger in all aspects of the mid-size and compact lines and the ultimate breadwinner in the F-Series which GM has no competitor for. GM has so much redundancy in their models that masquerades as "variety" and they couldn't even cut it quick enough to avoid bankruptcy. Led by an insufferable clown from Carlyle, they have no answer for "Big" Al Mulally, and even every EVP under him would all make better CEOs than Akerson at GM, especially "Marky Mark" Fields, the CEO-to-be post-2014. I don't want to rant here, but I don't see the rationale behind picking GM along with the rest of the HF crowd who all tell me the same thing: "it's cheap." Well, what was wrong with Ford, bro?
And Apple just doesn't fit with the concept of owning a business for the uber-long-term, but there's nothing wrong with owning it per se, as Einhorn isn't someone I'd expect to behave like a true old school value investor. Long-term for him might be a year or so. Check out the guys who hold for at least half a decade and ask how much work they do on a name before they own it, then ask their conviction on everything in their portfolio. Or maybe you won't have to after you've heard the first answer.
honestly, i don't know how ackman ever raised a 6 billion dollar fund. his performance hasn't ever been that great(except 2008), and he has had some major losses
seagate has so far been decent for einhorn. he bought in july 11 for 16.06, and now the stock is at 37. so 131% over 1.5 years = not bad.
gm obviously not so great, but if he's been averaging up his dollar exposure throughout from his buy period (early '11), he has probably made a little money on that as well. And that stock could have plenty further to go.
I'll be honest, I've never understood what it means to be a 'value' investor vs a 'growth' investor, and I've never really cared (all the theses other people pitch me when I'm talking to people at other shops at conferences / dinners all sound similarly rationalized whether they're value or growth or whatever). If you make 130% over 1.5 years on a long, you're probably doing something right. (I don't idolize Einhorn fwiw, and I realize his track record is merely ok as opposed to stellar, and this last quarter just bad)
isn't ~20% CAGR since inception considered stellar? Not an einhorn fanboy, but to put that up consistently is amazing. I can also see Apple shifting from a "growth stock" to a core holding for the value-oriented PM as it starts comping single digits consistently and potentially distributes more cash to shareholders. Of course, the market for smartphones/tablets can unfold in such a way that he is proven wrong in the long run and the stock can continue to experience wild swings uncharacteristic of most "value stocks", but on many metrics (ex-cash especially) it looks cheap enough to step in on valuation.
At the end of the day, unless you're strictly gaming the next quarter or making a call on a specific catalyst, you should be buying stocks you think are mispriced, so grouping people as "value" / "growth" is a bit misleading.
Did Ackman have any major change in his prsonal life in the last couple of years? A fund like this is driven by the leading individual, so understanding what's in their head, and what their emotional state is seems like the logical starting place for me. This really does look like an act of lunacy, and as time goes on and more people pile on, it looks self destructive.
HLF day trades on breaking news seem like a slam dunk, not sure about the long run. Can't speak to the other stocks mention, especially aapl.
On a side note: taco bell is still subpar compared to a decent Tex/Mex restaurant, but really has improved lately. Maybe once a month I get a burrito or nachos, and they are better than in the past. However, I assume they're still using zTranche grade meat?
On a side note, Icahn used the same word for Ackman I did: disingenuous. Aside from what's already been discussed, there's an easier point to make: yes there are a lot of flunkies making fifty bucks a month hawking shakes. There are, however, substantial amounts of people with stock holdings and or income interests in HLf that stand to lose if the company craters. All fine and well, but driving that situation in the name of charity as Ackman did, is just encouraging poverty and shifting control of resources to an entity he controls, all in the name of some supposedly grave public evil. Realistically, it's a just second rate company that sells mediocre products: I can think of more vile dragons to slay.
What I see driving Ackman is a hypocritical god complex, and I'm curious what, if any, drivers of that though pattern can be traced to personal problems. These guys eat, sleep, and breath their work, so there's always a carryover. Did he get a divorce? Death in the family? etc etc etc I'd be very curious to know.
I've never liked Icahn because while he DOES drive transformation in companies, a lot of times I think he makes a stink just to do it. He's good at what he does, I just don't fucking like the guy because the's the busybody type who runs around getting up everyone's ass just because he can do it. However in this case he makes a good counterweight to what I see as a deranged decision, and redeems our industry in the public eye to an extent. So for that, my opinion has changed.
...again, this assumes HLf is not going to zero soon. If it does, well, I don't know what to say.
P.S. Sorry for long post, got stuck waiting for an hour this morning xD
Good point, BH. I don't think Einhorn usually holds for 3-5 years.
I remember when Ted Weschler was hired from Berkshire he said that he doesn't invest until he's spent 500 hours on a name. I used to be blown away at this number, but when you start to do deep dives on names you start to understand how easy it is to get to to that number.
Agree, and what's most troubling about Ackman on the Herbalife situation is him bragging that his entire office spent "over a year" on research before making the call. I've never heard of someone needing remotely close to a year for anything, let alone putting the entire office on it... but I suppose it's commendable that he's "done his homework." Though I have to question exactly how right he is if someone like Loeb could so quickly jump to the other side with confidence and say he's wrong. You don't spend that kind of time on something and be anything but 99% right.
Exactly. It's a fascinating presentation - I find that understanding theses helps improve your process more so than reading the marginal investing book, but it's very, very odd that he spent so much time on it and it still wasn't convincing that it was a fat pitch of a short.
Klarman talks about the diminishing returns to marginal research in 'Margin of Safety' a bit, and I think it's something we need to be conscious about: I spent about 300 hours (approximately) on a short - the last 200 was pretty much just confirming what I suspected/figured out over the course of the first 100 - there was no additional investable action discovered in the last 200. Of course, the search for disconfirming evidence leads us to, in hindsight, waste time. But it seems like Ackman spends much of his time finding confirming evidence instead of seeking the opposing opinion and weighing it properly - which is a long-winded way of tying into your first post about Ackman relying on his first impressions of businesses.
I cannot fathom spending 500 hours studying a stock. I admire the shit out of people on the buyside that do that. I love reading their output and theses, but am not sure I'd have it in me to do the work to get there. It takes a very specific mind to do this kind of work at a really high level. I'd estimate that, even within banking and PE, maybe 3 - 5% of the Analysts / Associates are capable of doing it and doing it well (while also enjoying the work.)
clue: 2003
Anybody watching cnbc right now? Icahn's Ackman bashing!
Shit, I missed the apparent exchange they had on TV. Does anyone have a link to a recording of the exchange between Ichan and Ackman?
http://www.hardcorevalue.com/2013/01/ackman-vs-icahn_25.html
There are two videos. Ackman's on air and here's when Carl calls in to duke it out: http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?play=1&video=3000143591#eyJ2aWQiOiIzMDAw…
Maury should be moderating this
Holy shit. That interview is legendary.
I love Icahn's description of Ackman as the whiny little jewish boy in the school yard.
I wonder what is gonna happen to the analyst who worked on the HLF thesis with Ackman. Will he keep his desk (until Ackman blows up again)? Where would he move on to after such a highly publicized episode.
THIS IS AN AWESOME INTERVIEW. ICAHN IS SO OLD SCHOOL AWESOME
I DIDN'T COME TO CNBC TO GET BULLIED
Cooper vs. De Niro
Our whole desk was going nuts during the interview. Epic throwdown. One for the ages. I came away with a more favorable view towards Ackman, he handled himself better than Icahn did. His insults were hilarious but ultimately damaged him more. The ultimate follow-up would be for Icahn to start buying up HLF and pulling the borrow, just the screw Ackman.
Also agree on F > GM. GM has atrocious management. F is crushing it with their product line. I've seen a bunch of HF guys pitch GM at conferences, drooling about how cheap it is, and conveniently forgetting to count the pension. Well, no wonder it looks cheap.
Interesting thing to watch in the auto space will be what happens to the Koreans, now that the KRWJPY has moved so much. Have the Japanese gotten their mojo back? We will see...
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2013/01/25/cnbc_billionaire_show…
Vintage Carl.
according to the markets , ackman won that argument
Hmm. It would be rather interesting to see this play out
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