Comments (17)

Aug 28, 2018

LBO James, shame nobody has responded. Maybe one of these topics will help:

  • Negotiating Offer before, during, and after interview (Follow up) I recently negotiated an offer and wanted to post about my positive experience. This is the first ... time I have negotiated an offer and in preparation I looked through the previous posts and asked for ... Here are few things in the below posts I found most helpful/applicable to my recent experience (take ...
  • When to follow up with a recruiter after a superday? If I don't hear back within the next few days, would it be appropriate to follow up? Should ... by a recruiter that I'd hear back within a week at the latest. So far I've heard nothing. ... certain divisions. I also noticed that on WSO another superday candidate posted his/her interview ...
  • "I follow the stock market" tweeting, snapping, and posting on facebook any recent activity in the market. For example, snap-chatting ... headed to the street upon graduation? He graduates next fall. To make things worse, he is your typical ... a complete fool of himself while once again pretending that he has even the slightest clue what he's ...
  • Bear Market 2014/2015 on same great bargains in the market. The correction may not happen tomorrow, next month or next ... Since bottoming out in march 2009 the stock market has more than doubled in less than 5 years. ... This has been the longest bull market(out of 25 bull markets) since 1929. Honestly, the last 20% gains ...
  • Already followed up after interview, do I dare follow up again? Had the interview, and was told by one of the associates I met with that follow ups are ... encouraged. So, exactly one week after the interview I sent an email to the partner I interviewed with. He ... replied within twenty minutes and said he would let me know one way or the other in the next week. That ...
  • Prelude to the Next Recession Hey Monkeys, Almost ten years ago, the Fed, followed by the other central banks of the world, ... this article about the rapid expansion of direct lending to small cap and mid market enterprises by ... will fail to make its retirement fund payment obligations in the next few decades. When and if they do, ...
  • 30 year-old breaking in after more rejections than I wish to remember. The following story is not a story of someone from ... employees after one year, captured more than 50% of the market share, revenues were 6 figures and we ... the competition. b) Following-up after an application to any company, I went on LinkedIn and connected ...
  • Is $$$Bitcoin$$$ The Next Tulip Bulb Or The Next Dell? Bitcoin was only 0.0001 USD on June 2009; after that, the price of Bitcoin rose to 0.07 USD a year ... later. During that time I heard the name "Bitcoin," but lazily disregarded it as a derivative ... of PayPal. Earlier this year, probably late to the party, I heard about Bitcoin again at a local ...
  • More suggestions...

Or maybe the following users have something to say: @JamesJu @del7mike @ancientty

You're welcome.

Sep 20, 2018

Check our Roubini's views on the 2020 recession..

also...short ETFs

Sep 20, 2018

Not today. Check back tomorrow.

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Sep 20, 2018

We have a little ways to go Mr. James

Sep 20, 2018

When, what, how bad - who knows? One thing we are reasonably sure of is that each recession was caused by something that was new in the cycle, and there are plenty of new things in the last cycle, for example:

  • Regulations limited banks' leverage, which made banks safer, but also made it so that banks are no longer the buyers of last resort. Who is going to absorb risk assets the next time? All the crap that banks used to hold are now in insurance companies and pension funds, but on a plus side those are not vulnerable to a bank run. Also, limited leverage means limiting the banks' role in expansion.
  • QE - new this cycle, but probably won't make things worse
  • Passive ETFs - Every individual investor feels they are liquid, but for the market they create an illusion of liquidity. What if all investors want to sell them?
  • Passive investing in general, quant, factor investing - all have expanded during the last cycle, but it is unclear how they will affect the next downturn
  • Emerging Markets - they were 20% last cycle, now - 60%. China was 5%, now 15%. Maybe this is for the better? Who knows...
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Sep 20, 2018

Emerging markets are 60% of what?

Sep 21, 2018

I was referring to the share of Global GDP, based on purchasing power parity.

I rounded to 60% the 59.25% reported by the IMF, since I was talking in very broad strokes: https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/[email protected]/...

Sep 20, 2018
ahead:

When, what, how bad - who knows? One thing we are reasonably sure of is that each recession was caused by something that was new in the cycle, and there are plenty of new things in the last cycle, for example:

  • Regulations limited banks' leverage, which made banks safer, but also made it so that banks are no longer the buyers of last resort. Who is going to absorb risk assets the next time? All the crap that banks used to hold are now in insurance companies and pension funds, but on a plus side those are not vulnerable to a bank run. Also, limited leverage means limiting the banks' role in expansion.
  • QE - new this cycle, but probably won't make things worse
  • Passive ETFs - Every individual investor feels they are liquid, but for the market they create an illusion of liquidity. What if all investors want to sell them?
  • Passive investing in general, quant, factor investing - all have expanded during the last cycle, but it is unclear how they will affect the next downturn
  • Emerging Markets - they were 20% last cycle, now - 60%. China was 5%, now 15%. Maybe this is for the better? Who knows...

You must be a trump supporter. This damn Democrats keep raising the rates hah

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Sep 21, 2018

Yeah and banks benefit from the higher rates.

Sep 21, 2018

Trump inflationary policies (like trade war)-->Debt issues and spillovers-->>banking bear-->>costly debt/run from dumb money-->>tech bear market-->>spills into other sectors?

Banking buffers and current shy away from excess risk has us on firmer ground. Thus, the recession should be milder than 2008. I think Trump keeps people on the edge, which keeps dumb money from running hot and heavy bubbles.

Riskier borrowers are probably not getting a lot of cash--i.e. they are still able to make payments on CC and number of delinquent accounts hasn't spiked. I think people are still a little conscious and wary about debt problems, where they felt invincible during the lead up to 2008.

    • 1
Sep 21, 2018

does everything have to be political? news flash: business cycles roll over, regardless of if it's trump, hillary, kermit, or a grilled cheese sandwich in the white house. oi vei, give it a fucking rest people. do your homework rather than just regurgitating what MSNBC or Fox says.

I have no idea what causes the next recession, but I am of the belief it will be benign in terms of market declines (which is what I really care about, my career and my wife's are recession proof). I put it at 30-35%. we've got rising rates but not rapidly so, generally healthy labor markets, valuations have come down (don't read john hussman, he hasn't made a good trade since bush's first term), and earnings growth is actually healthy on the whole. there are absolutely micro bubbles (crypto, high yield, etc.), but I would expect more of a change of market leadership like a mini 2000-2002 where everything goes down but it's mostly one sided, and value does better in the next recovery. only until lately has this changed, but until now we've been in mostly a sideways market since the late 90s (look at a logarithmic scale, jpmorgan puts out a good one).

I'm positioned more conservatively than normal just because I do expect something to give in the next 2 years, but by no means do I think we'll see another GFC or anything that severe in terms of market crashes.

what really worries me long term is our debt, but that's less of an investing issue and more political, so I won't go there.

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Most Helpful
Sep 21, 2018
thebrofessor:

does everything have to be political? news flash: business cycles roll over, regardless of if it's trump, hillary, kermit, or a grilled cheese sandwich in the white house. oi vei, give it a fucking rest people. do your homework rather than just regurgitating what MSNBC or Fox says.

I have no idea what causes the next recession, but I am of the belief it will be benign in terms of market declines (which is what I really care about, my career and my wife's are recession proof). I put it at 30-35%. we've got rising rates but not rapidly so, generally healthy labor markets, valuations have come down (don't read john hussman, he hasn't made a good trade since bush's first term), and earnings growth is actually healthy on the whole. there are absolutely micro bubbles (crypto, high yield, etc.), but I would expect more of a change of market leadership like a mini 2000-2002 where everything goes down but it's mostly one sided, and value does better in the next recovery. only until lately has this changed, but until now we've been in mostly a sideways market since the late 90s (look at a logarithmic scale, jpmorgan puts out a good one).

I'm positioned more conservatively than normal just because I do expect something to give in the next 2 years, but by no means do I think we'll see another GFC or anything that severe in terms of market crashes.

what really worries me long term is our debt, but that's less of an investing issue and more political, so I won't go there.

I said Trump inflationary policies in 2016 before Trump even took office.

The problem with government is that it changes the landscape, since it takes part in virtually every aspect of life (especially in today's world). Whether the trade war is good or bad i'm not attempting to argue.

But it has a tangible effect on how things play out in the market. No one could've planned a trade war in 2016, nor could they have planned it would persist this long, or how long it will go on.

When banks in EMEs and other foreign markets needed to fund their obligations they borrowed for those immediate purposes. But the tides change with shifting leadership, as it should in a democracy.

You can't account for it, but the signs of that are beginning to show more now.

P.S. this is just something I'm been thinking on. My thoughts only

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Sep 21, 2018

Whenever I have any lingering fears about where the market is heading and the impact it could have on myself and my loved ones, barring actual cataclysm, I listen to the "what is money?" monologue from the opening of Ozark and the fear subsides.

Aug 14, 2019

One of the following causes it:
-spike in inflation leading to speculation of increased rates
-healthcare collapsing on new policy
-china collapse
-housing prices falling

As an investor I try to find opportunities on the cheap and hope I don't get let go....

Aug 14, 2019

I think any dem that takes office is going to have a negative impact on the economy via health care policy. Healthcare makes up 13% of GDP, and institutionalizing healthcare would surely push us into a recession by healthcare industry worker displacement alone.

Aug 14, 2019

It's 18% of gdp now!! All those high single digit inflation years of hc taking toll

Aug 14, 2019
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