What’s the next burgeoning asset class?
Thinking through career ops and lots of commentary on here about how PE isn't the promised land anymore due to heavy competition, unsustainable multiples, etc. HFs went through/are going through the same with low returns and fee compression, mutual funds are getting crushed by ETFs. VC has grown a ton and definitely benefits from PE overpaying for assets, but again it's super crowded now and industry fees are going to have to come down eventually, as will returns whenever this current market cycle returns to sanity. PC booming now too, but lots of that is due to regulatory changes from 08 and the growth in PE.
So what's next? When you look at people who have made a ton of money in finance, it's being in the right industry at the right time and riding the wave. From junk bonds in the 80s to HFs/mutual funds in the 90s to PE recently. I'd argue VC/GE/growthy PE in recent years as well. all these industries I've listed seem to have already really matured and I just don't see how there's room to continue growing. Obviously money to be made if you're good anywhere, my theory is a rising tide lifts all boats and it takes a lot more skill to make money in a flat/declining industry vs being an ok performer in a booming industry.
The only thing I think you can argue is the next big thing would be crypto, but personally don't see the opportunity for large scale finance in that space and don't think I'd want a career there. Maybe RX/super value based PE if the thesis is current growth ecosystem blows up? Just curious what other peoples thoughts on here about how to get off the beaten path and forge the next big thing rather thing clinging on the the glory days of another industry.