The market could rally 20% annually over the next few years, who knows? But the general consensus right now is that we are approaching the end of the bull market. Right or wrong, I enjoy the humorous events that tend to occur as a market gets frothy. My bosses have always told me stories of things that happened before past peaks and I just experienced one that I felt the need to share. If the market does enter a correction soon, this will be the greatest war story for a very long time.
Yesterday I took an Uber to and from work because my car was in the shop. When the driver picked me up, he began by asking if I worked at an investment firm. I work at a multibillion dollar foundation in a pretty discrete area, so I explained to him what we do. The conversation then went like this:
Driver: "Yeah, I work in finance too. I work for XYZ firm. Did working at your firm make you want to start investing i some funds?"
Me: "I've invested on my own for years, and that is what made me interested in the industry."
Driver: "Oh okay, well my job is helping people plan for their retirement. We aren't like the big firms that require a $250k minimum, we'll take anyone and help you get into the best funds possible."
Me: "That's interesting."
Driver: "Yeah it's really great. If you want to get into some funds just let me know. Actually, we're looking for some more people if you're interested. It starts at 8 hours a week and at that you'll pull in between $1500 to $2000 a month. If you start working full time like me it gets to be a really good living."
Me: "Thanks for the offer, but I'm pretty happy with my current job."
We continue driving to the shop and talk about other things. When I start to get out of the car he continues:
Driver: "Hey if you want to give me your number I can put you in contact with my district VP."
Me: "Thanks for offering, but I'm okay."
Driver: "Are you sure? It's really easy money."
Needless to say, you know you're near a market peak when your uber driver is pitching you on joining his investment firm.
Anyone else have any stories like these? I always find it humorous to hear about the neighbor who does algorithmic trading, the waiter making bank in penny stocks, etc.
A financial planner who sources clients via uber sounds like either a genius idea if you have no connections, or really sketchy.
I had the same thought at first, but then realized that it was definitely the latter given the driver.
Synergies!
Uber is probably the best place to find clients to "advise" based on socioeconomic stats for Uber clients.
After typing it out, it is THE best place...
the countless threads on WSO of people who have made 10% per year since 2010 asking if they should start their own fund, quit their job and start day trading, petco doing another IPO, countless other IPOs this year with no bottom line, uber being "worth" more than FedEx, CAT, and YUM, the list goes on.
that being said, Robert Shiller predicted an equity market bubble in 1996, 4 years before the crash (in other words, longer than any equity manager could've lasted being conservative). just because it's toppy doesn't mean it's THE top, which is why it's difficult to time when to be all in and all out, better to always be in and always have cash.
After reading Most Important Thing, Marks was early by close to 4 years from the most recent recession. I've definitely heard some interesting thing lately; from a coworker getting stock tips from a cook about Skyworks to my fiance telling a friend with little money that it is a great time to purchase a house because interest rates are so low. I don't think we are at an extreme in either direction though; still swinging along the pendulum.
A favorite finance prof of mine claims just prior to the dot com bubble popping, she received stock tips from a cab driver the same day a colleague of hers received stock tips from a hair dresser.
As she liked to say "garbage in, garbage out."
It's why your finance prof is teaching rather than trading. Time to cull the herd!
17 year old "Hedge Fund Manager"-
..Yes, the top is most certainly among us. Whatta asshole.
This kid.... "wohl of wall street" lol
In the video there is a box in the upper right hand corner talking about the kid's history. Other than having a "stock market themed" birthday cake for his 9th, I lol'd at his claimed egg business fetching a 600-700% profit margin
Why is this even a story? This kid is just dicking around with a bunch of stupid people's money. He has no qualifications and is capitalizing on the fact that your average joe doesn't understand volatility. I know people of similar age who manage more money and have better returns than egg kid here.
Future Star :thumbsup
Edited: I just realized this post was published before the recent correction.
lol
(FORTUNE Magazine) – JOE KENNEDY, a famous rich guy in his day, exited the stock market in timely fashion after a shoeshine boy gave him some stock tips. He figured that when the shoeshine boys have tips, the market is too popular for its own good, a theory also advanced by Bernard Baruch, another vested interest who described the scene before the big Crash: "Taxi drivers told you what to buy. The shoeshine boy could give you a summary of the day's financial news as he worked with rag and polish. An old beggar who regularly patrolled the street in front of my office now gave me tips and, I suppose, spent the money I and others gave him in the market. My cook had a brokerage account and followed the ticker closely. Her paper profits were quickly blown away in the gale of 1929."
...it'll be different this time
;)
I actually don't think we're at the peak yet; I think we're in a flat period on the latter half of a bull market. Sentiment is slowly becoming more optimistic, I think, but it definitely isn't the mindless euphoria that's characterized past peaks.
I suppose I will be the only contrarian here...
Just because your cab driver or your shoeshine boy is keeping up with the stock market does not mean necessarily mean that the market is going to tank.. Don't you remember in our recent history the 2000-01 stock market bubble and the financial crisis of 2008. Those events changed many people's lives SIGNIFICANTLY for the worse. Its not like anyone can avoid being impacted by similar events anymore. And from media reports, the average joe would be reasonable to conclude that only market players can ride out the storm with relative ease. I think people who still do not pay attention to the markets are just setting themselves up to be blindsided yet again..
I am not saying that everyone who invests will be great at it.. but it is good to see that people can somewhat understand business-speak. Kinda helps democratize the "markets"
"If you start working full time like me it gets to be a really good living."
Just driving the Uber for fun, I suppose?
I think he was exaggerating. Given what he was wearing I don't think he actually made a good living.
As for the "whol of wall street", I saw that video months ago. I felt so bad for his teachers and stuff who'd given him money.
Seems that more and more people in a sales-related role are taking to Uber. Had multiple Uber drivers that were headhunters.
15 sec elevator pitch just became a 15 min pitch ha
Everyone knows that this is the market top and that we will crash soon.
When everyone knows, it's obviously going to happen.
Wait... maybe I confused myself.
Just wondering why he's driving uber if he's in it full-time making a "good living". My take is the direction of this markets will depends somewhat on what the Feds do with interest rates and the general elections coming upon us.
Wow. I should have listened to WSO!
Local hip hop station aired a wealth management ad last week which featured commentary that linked the future of Chinese monetary policy, US consumer spending, Greece, real estate, and gold prices to S&P returns - all within the allotted 30 seconds. The ad guy spit a fury of financial jargon that would surely make the aforementioned "Wohl of Wallstreet" blush.
You know a market peak is near when....
...There is a new "Home Buying" show on HGTV every other day
Price changes since August 18 close until 3:40PM August 21st (Roughly Estimated):
DJIA: -5.37% NASDAQ: -6.6% S&P 500: -5.5% Russel 2000: -4.5%
Keep it going so I can put some of this excess cash to good use.
The S&P has dropped 5.1% since the posting of this thread. Too ironic to be an actual downturn.
in b4 this thread is called "prescient".
There's still more room in this fraud. Fed will back off of raising rates.
Calling the top or bottom is a pointless exercise.
On another note, there were articles a few months back about how wealthy everyone became in China from the market. To the point where common folk are trading hurry their lunch. Part of the reason that a 5% daily decrease is possible - people freak the eff out
Probably some Pri-merica rep, his "flexible" work schedule is what allows him to Uber.
Asia getting crushed in early trading and S&P futures currently down over 200bps...looking like an ugly Monday.
Annnnndddddddd.....................we are in correction territory. Amazing.
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