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Apple has, once again, posted a great quarter which beat analyst expectations. There have been statements that Apple could become the first trillion dollar company and that its stock could reach as high as $1000.

One top analyst begs to differ and believes that Apple’s reign will continue for a few more years, but eventually come to a halt.

Quote:
[W]ithout the arrival of a new charismatic leader it will move from being a great company to being a good company, with a commensurate step down in revenue growth and product innovation.

While iPhone and iPad sales continue to grow, Samsung has taken Nokia’s spot as the top cell phone maker in the world and has shipped just 3 million less smart phones than Apple in 1Q. The Galaxy line from Samsung has established a loyal customer base which seeks the new phones similarly to Apple fanatics for the latest iPhone.

The debate if Apple will be able to keep up with innovation in a post Steve Jobs era has been talked about by many people. Do you think Apple will be able to keep growing or will it soon halt and stay an important tech company, but without constantly reinventing different markets?

After the projects that were in the pipeline when Steve Jobs was alive are done being brought to market, what will happen to Apple?

Article:
http://articles.cnn.com/2012-04-26/tech/tech_innov...

Comments (36)

  • Contrariety's picture

    Two words: margin compression. I don't know when its gonna happen, but it definitely will. Company has had a tremendous run (much longer than I would have ever imagined), but such things are not meant to last.

  • SonnyZH's picture

    I doubt all of Apple's success came from a single man.

    Quote:
    The HBS guys have MAD SWAGGER. They frequently wear their class jackets to boston bars, strutting and acting like they own the joint. They just ooze success, confidence, swagger, basically attributes of alpha males.

  • blastoise's picture

    Do you honestly believe there are enough buyers to pull those number?

  • yhp2009's picture

    Can Apple continue to attract talent like it has with Jobs as CEO? Post Job's era definitely will be different. But for now it still has a growing market, especially overseas, and a crap load of cash ($100 billion) which gives Apple many options from here.

  • West Coast rainmaker's picture

    This is company that basically sells toys. It sells itself as a luxury, and has a much broader market than most electronics because it is so simple. It is luxury tech for non-nerds.

    Apple isn't exactly innovative...it just refines. It has enjoyed such success because its competition sucks. MSFT has been trying its best to ignore consumers since Windows XP...they lost it somewhere between there and Vista. Google is kind of a mess, and Amazon hasn't shown interest in mobile. Nokia and RIM are actively trying to kill themselves. Palm succeeded.

  • BTbanker's picture

    My friend just audited Apple. They are cooking the books.

  • In reply to West Coast rainmaker
    Neighbor's picture

    West Coast rainmaker wrote:
    This is company that basically sells toys. It sells itself as a luxury, and has a much broader market than most electronics because it is so simple. It is luxury tech for non-nerds.

    Apple isn't exactly innovative...it just refines. It has enjoyed such success because its competition sucks. MSFT has been trying its best to ignore consumers since Windows XP...they lost it somewhere between there and Vista. Google is kind of a mess, and Amazon hasn't shown interest in mobile. Nokia and RIM are actively trying to kill themselves. Palm succeeded.

    Well said.

    I didn't say it was your fault, I said I was blaming you.

  • In reply to West Coast rainmaker
    BTbanker's picture

    West Coast rainmaker wrote:
    This is company that basically sells toys. It sells itself as a luxury, and has a much broader market than most electronics because it is so simple. It is luxury tech for non-nerds.

    Apple isn't exactly innovative...it just refines. It has enjoyed such success because its competition sucks. MSFT has been trying its best to ignore consumers since Windows XP...they lost it somewhere between there and Vista. Google is kind of a mess, and Amazon hasn't shown interest in mobile. Nokia and RIM are actively trying to kill themselves. Palm succeeded.


    Yeah, I think Google will emerge as Apple's biggest rival, but they are trying to do a billion things at once. They are basically competing with Yahoo, Apple, Facebook, Microsoft, Mapquest, and content providers. They need to focus on a few things and perfect them.

  • blackrainn's picture

    Apple should buy Facebook.

  • In reply to BTbanker
    secretariat's picture

    Connor wrote:
    My friend just audited Apple. They are cooking the books.

    say what? Not unless they are faking their cash balances (they deliver consistently above net income FCF)

  • In reply to BTbanker
    yhp2009's picture

    Connor wrote:
    My friend just audited Apple. They are cooking the books.

    Scrolling through AAPL's 10K in yahoo finance doesnt count

  • schube130's picture

    I believe that if Apple continues to make products that are extraordinary they will continue at the same pace, im not so sure about the trillion dollar valuation, but only time will tell. they need to continue to find different markets and make a product that will change those markets entirely. I am curious to see if there actually will be an apple tv. if so i believe that if they make this product as well as they have done with every other product they will change the tv market. Obviously their growth of iphones/ipad will slow down at some point. so they need to find new places to destroy the competition and make their revolutionary products.

  • KingEastwood's picture

    I agree with the statement that Apple's dominance will only remain for a few years. If u actually take a look at android handsets and the iphone (same goes for tablets) then there arent really any differences in terms of software anymore, and if then only minor. Apple outperformed because they were always innovating, but did u see much innovation in the 4s or new ipad? I personally dont. Then again they just copied some software designs from android, like the pull down notifications menu. Same goes for hardware unless u really think u need that retina display.

    So unless they come up with something truly magical sometime soon there is only growth from markets they havent served yet.

    Then the interesting thing is gonna be the carrier subsidies everybody is discussing. Carriers love apple for bringing in customers, but now that the deal aint exclusive anymore what gives. Those subsidies hurt their margins bad so why not some tacit collusion to improve industry profitabilty by reducing subsidies. If i were a carrier that is what i would do so i guess they are having it in the back of their head as well. As in estimated in some report a $100 reduction in subsidies would cost apple $6 in eps, which definitely hurts.

  • Gate_Crasher's picture

    Apple is doomed to failure.
    Over priced products for a bunch of hippies. Eventually the hippies will run out of mom and dad's mommy !

  • TonyPerkis's picture

    Apple is going to become eradicated from an apple famine..much like the potato famine of ireland

    I eat success for breakfast...with skim milk

  • el georgino's picture

    I think Apple has very little competition so the sky is the limit for them. Who are their competitors?
    * Google and their defragmented Android OS. Google had a good thing going with their OS for mobile however, by not controlling new releases, their mobile market is highly defragmented. Their new OS, Ice Cream Sandwich, has been on the market for about 6 months....only 4% of Android devices have that OS. That's a horrible conversion rate. Think about it, the iphone 3gs, after 2.5 years on the market, can still have the newest iOS and can stay relevant. Android phones are obsolete after about 6-8 months, those phones are not capable of downloading any new software that Google releases. By not having a vertically business model, Google is going to lose out on mobile if they are not careful.

    * Also, on the tablet side. Quick...name one Android tablet that is competing with iPad? Exactly. Now, I am assuming a lot will say the Kindle Fire. Yes, the fire has about 15% of the tablet market however Amazon developed their own software built upon Android's platform. Basically, Amazon did not need Google to develop a software for Fire. Amazon only used Android's platform and created their own. That's a big red flag for Google because it means that companies (Amazon and Samsung) can be successful without the newest release of Android. They can simply build their own software using Android's open platform. If I were Samsung, I would do exactly what Amazon did with the Fire and create my own software in order to control the software on their phones. Samsung could compete with Apple by doing this.

    So, that gives Apple a competitive edge on the mobile and tablet sectors. We can argue about laptops and desktops but since iphones and ipads are their biggest money makers, I will leave it at that.

    Google needs to worry about Windows OS later this year. Microsoft could essentially take a huge bite out of Android tablets/smartphones.

    Keep in mind that the iphone 4S was a minor upgrade of the 4 however it still manages to outsell (depending on what report you believe) all the smartphones out there. They sold over 35 mn iphone 4S and thats with the iphone 5 (rumor is that it will be a huge upgrade) just months away from being announced/released.
    Google can not be liking this.

  • mrbeancounter's picture

    You decide which source is more credible.
    LA Times or Bloomberg.

  • In reply to el georgino
    KingEastwood's picture

    el georgino wrote:

    * Google and their defragmented Android OS. Google had a good thing going with their OS for mobile however, by not controlling new releases, their mobile market is highly defragmented. Their new OS, Ice Cream Sandwich, has been on the market for about 6 months....only 4% of Android devices have that OS. That's a horrible conversion rate. Think about it, the iphone 3gs, after 2.5 years on the market, can still have the newest iOS and can stay relevant. Android phones are obsolete after about 6-8 months, those phones are not capable of downloading any new software that Google releases. By not having a vertically business model, Google is going to lose out on mobile if they are not careful.

    An Android phone being "obsolete" after 8 months instead of 12 like with the iPhone doesn't make much of a difference. Additionally I would not necessarily call this a competitive strength of Apple.

    el georgino wrote:

    Keep in mind that the iphone 4S was a minor upgrade of the 4 however it still manages to outsell (depending on what report you believe) all the smartphones out there. They sold over 35 mn iphone 4S and thats with the iphone 5 (rumor is that it will be a huge upgrade) just months away from being announced/released.
    Google can not be liking this.

    Everybody thought the iPhone 4s would be a major upgrade, so what's really gonna make the new iPhone so much better? ok, it will have LTE, pretty late to the game with several Android phones already packing it, but what else can u reasonably expect to be so major about it.

  • In reply to el georgino
    West Coast rainmaker's picture

    el georgino wrote:
    I think Apple has very little competition so the sky is the limit for them. Who are their competitors?

    This is kind of my thinking. As was said, Google lacks the central planning needed to produce highly integrated products...their engineers are brilliant, and can put out web-apps day after day. But building an OS from the ground up with a specific hardware layout in mind is a different story.

    MSFT has basically stopped trying. I am not sure what sort of group-think is going on in Redmond, but Windows 8? It is terrible. Same with the their continual attempts to create a competitive phone. Developers do not make apps, the phones fail to gain popularity, and they are quickly abandoned. I think they should just refocus on enterprise, buy RIM, and become the leader in business software.

    Amazon, in contrast, has incredible planning. Bezos quite frankly reminds me a lot of Jobs with regards to vision, forethought, etc. I think they are the only company that can fight Apple.

  • mrbeancounter's picture

    True technology users know that an OS shouldn't be developed with hardware in mind
    but the hardware parts should work together well, then any OS will work.

    That's why a well maintained Windows PC will always beat a Mac.

  • Ryan M's picture

    iphones are great because you already know how to use them when you pick it up where as with android this isnt the case. that being said i cant see where else apple will expand as i personally believe their macs and ipads are destined to fail. microsoft office is the simple reason a pc is more desirable then a mac and that isnt changing any time soon. also every tablet that i see now has a keyboard case so they essentially bought an expensive netbook. personally i think that the intel ultrabooks being launched with ivy bridge are going to be start stealing market share from apple very quickly. if i had to guess, apples iphone 5 later this year will keep the stock moving higher but as many have mentioned above in 2 years or so this stock will become another market performer.

  • Amphipathic's picture

    Folks love apple products not so much for the quality or features but because of the status it conveys (Hell the laptops are twice as expensive and half as good as a regular pc). But with so many of these iphones sold nowadays I think they are losing their luxury good status and Apple will become another faceless tech company like samsung or nokia (esp now that jobs is gone).

  • Amphipathic's picture

    As pessimistic as I am about apple though, I wouldn't short it cause the shareholders are gaga and it will take time for reality to set in.

  • mrbeancounter's picture

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  • In reply to BTbanker
    TonyPerkis's picture

    I eat success for breakfast...with skim milk

  • In reply to TonyPerkis
    BTbanker's picture
  • mrbeancounter's picture
  • el georgino's picture
  • In reply to el georgino
    Cola Coca's picture