Anyone do modeling for their personal investments?

I have a bit, and was always frustrated with not having access to the tools you'd have at bigger companies like capIQ, FactSet or Bloomberg since they're just sold B2B. 

Since I have a prior CS background, I've been playing around and built something that uses AI to understand your unique financial modeling template to then extract the key financials from filings (i.e. 10K, 10Q, press release) and fill them into exactly the cells they should go.  Key feature I added per some requests is an audit trail for every single cell to see exactly where the data came from highlighted in the text. 

This is working quite well in my case, happy to let others try for free if you're curious. But I'm interested in learning what tools you guys are using for your personal investments when it comes to automation, or generally speeding things up!

163 Comments
 

Sounds very interesting, always spent a lot of time on keying in financials without access to firm resources. Definitely keen to try it out if possible!

 
Most Helpful

If this is indeed working as described, on such a low-code/no-code setup, you may have an attractive product at hand… depends on accuracy of the whole thing and ability to apply to US/EU/APAC stocks…at a reasonable price point, this would be a relevant SaaS product for quite an audience, esp. with a proper audit trail.   Just stating the obvious…

 

From a user's perspective it's no code, but certainly took a lot of coding to make haha. I have a computer science background - it's just my brother and I that made this. From my personal experience it's very accurate at pulling financials from filings, and the audit trail is accurate as well, you can check at any point where any data was found in the filings. I sent you a pm, Happy to disucss more in detail

 

How do you achieve the low error rate, and what do you consider low?

I've assessed a bunch of the commercial solutions and found that the ones that require manual/assisted mapping (someone mentioned Daloopa) are the most reliable.

The PM freaks out if you get just 1-2 numbers in the quarter wrong. Given they don't understand tech, they consider the whole experiment failed and ask you to start doing it manually again next print.

 

Am I the only one who sees how out-of-touch it is to use Excel modelling for personal investments that are worth less than $10m??

 

Interesting concept. Here's a banana.  What AI platform are you using to export and categorize the data?

As a next improvement... couldn't you utilize another  AI platform to peruse and categorize the European filings that typically come in PDF? There is definitely AI capable of doing that and it really doesnt seem difficult considering the work you have already done.

Also, I do like the idea of  auditting every cell to uncover where the data came from. That's a nice touch that saves alot of  head scratching  for the end user. No more deciphering of EDGAR reports required.

I'd love to check it out and  give feedback on features to add/ how to improve it. However,  I am not necessarily from a CS background so my input would be more from a basic end user point of reference.

Good luck 

Bobby the Baboon - Leader of the Next Great Market Chimpout
 

I'm using a custom trained anthropic model to understand the data, and for exporting and categorizing it I have developed a custom PDF parser.

European filings are definitely a good suggestion, something I haven't covered in the past. And yes the auditing is nice, you can fully trust results from AI this way. No need for a CS background, I reached out to you if you'd like to have a quick chat later on this.

 

My PA is 50% ETFs and remaining 50% are my top 5 ideas outside my coverage at work (obviously can't trade those names). All longs. I used to cover this space in PE years ago and built models for them, so I've just been updating them q/q. I have a pretty significant amount of $ in each of those 5, so having a model and being somewhat close to them is important to me. To each their own. 

 

Hey guys, trying to let as many people try out what I made since there are so many requests! It's money coming out of my own pocket, and i'm setting each person up with $20 of spend on me. To use AI like this isn't free, unfortunately (I wish it was).  If I haven't messaged you i'll get to you later, but trying not to overwhelm the server (or my wallet).

 

If the software is decent with good use case I don't see what the problem is. I'll gladly slurp it up  if it means my current  basket of stocks to watch gets easier to manage.

Bobby the Baboon - Leader of the Next Great Market Chimpout
 

Hi, would love to try this too. For personal investments, I use Tikr to quickly copy over financials and do some very fast modelling. No excel export tool, but they make copying data fairly easy. Then if interesting enough, I will look into the filings and do some real work. Tbh the model is often the least problematic aspect. The research aspect is what takes the greatest amount of time and chatgpt helps a lot. Not so much so for researching but for converting very complex text into something with dedicated explanations for someone that is not an expert in that particular subject. It is prone to making assumptions but if you pay a lot of attention to what it spits out, you can almost always tell where the assumptions are likely made. Meanwhile Alpha Spread has a pretty cool tool for searching transcripts (e.g. https://www.alphaspread.com/security/nyse/jnj) and I use the free version. For idea generation, I have a bunch of different screens and various market signals I follow e.g. spinoffs, CEO departure (restructuring), etc. Not paying a dime for anything aside from Tikr.

 

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Big4 Audit --> TMT L/S
 

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