With what seems to be the later stages of Kenneth Cordele Griffin's prosperous years, who's the next new big swinging d*ck to enter the game? Coleman appears to have been halved in the last 6 months which hurts as he was the front runner.
In all seriousness with the recent events whoever comes out of this year 30%+ will be one to watch.
Criteria: <50 yo
Depends on which factor works in this decade.
Could you please elaborate a bit ?
You frequent this forum, I am sure you have seen arguments that a lot of TMT fund's success is because their portfolio is heavily exposed to the "tech factor" in a low rate environment.
Is fundamental stock picking basically dead? Looks like its all going towards quant and big data sets (machine learning, factors, etc) .
Typical failed fundamental response
Unless you get a good strat, it's extremely hard to succeed as a quant these days. Like scanning oil tankers/fields for how much oil they have before that became widespread. The top quant funds will dominate for the forseeable future unlike fundamental HFs where the top is gonna reap returns but there's still room below for others to succeed.
I just started this Monday but it’s most likely going to be me. historically I’ve been very good at underperforming the S&P, can’t name a single person that does it better.
Jamie Sterne of Skye Global is under 35, and runs 6bn. Tech focused fund, that apparently dodged most of the losses the others faced this year so probably pretty well positioned.
Edit: Guess people have better / more recent intel than I did on actual losses, I saw an article that he had missed most but apparently that’s wrong. Still will be interesting to see post-redemptions.
Looks likes he's got 2b in AMZN and 1.5 in MSFT. The Florida boys are up big this year.
how'd they dodge losses seeing that they're predominately tmt?
Edit: II reported them has being -24% YTD through april
And Skye Global, arrange by former Third Point analyst Jamie Sterne, fell greater than 35 per cent within the first half of this yr after dropping 10.4 per cent in June, based on numbers despatched to traders.
Perhaps Grant Wonders of Voyager Global that launched with $1bn, former Viking TMT PM, who's been talked about here before; however, I have no knowledge of his returns so far.
marc stad
Can you elaborate. Dragoneer flies under the radar but have heard of them in SF. Seems like blend of growth equity, vc, three spacs and a long only tech equity portfolio.
All of which have gotten fucked this year
The next big hedge in my opinion is Dennis hong. Really smart guy. Will also be watching to see how Mala Gaonkar that spun out of lone pine performs.
why
Isn't Dennis one of those hold 5 tech stocks type guys? So he's down 50pct ytd?
yup, 13F shows 4 stocks. recent returns can't be good
I’d be extremely curious to see how Mala fairs. She’s successfully dodged the tech sell off as she was between jobs. Would be interesting to see what strategy she uses going into the new fund
Dennis hong isn't even an investor, he's a marketing head while two dudes in the background do all the "research" for 10 year hold CVNA/IAC/SE type investments
shots fired!!!!!
Dude gets dunked on... on Twitter... for legit only being able to use first order thinking.
I think there's largely to be a lull of new HF launches. You're seeing a decent amount of Lone Pine / Viking / Coatue type spin outs of more senior analysts taking a stab at their own fund. Will be interesting to see how it goes as those same parent funds have struggled this year & last.
I honestly would bet that whoever spins out of Melvin and takes what Gabe did wrong and improves upon it should be heralded as a strong HF launch and one of the next big candidates.
Me
The only correct answer to this thread.
How old are you and how much do you make
This is such a merch idea.
*u
This is Pizz’s line
Right on Pizz 😎
Justin lubell whenever he decides to start his own fund. Definitely gonna be a $1B+ launch given how much capital former CGE global heads have been seeded with. In terms of Viking I’m surprised Ning Jin hasn’t spun out yet.
Good pt. Would add Ning just bought a $20m Hamptons crib so not sure he needs to leave just yet...
Yo Justin is crazy: https://www.wallstreetoasis.com/forum/trading/justin-lubell-2-years-out…
You callin him Cordele is like calling the weekend Abel.
deleted
Depends on how this cycle plays out, but my Tech focused picks would be Daniel Gillespie at Dragoneer (Marc’s #2). Nick Laster at Soros (ECM/privates PM). Both are only 32-35, wicked smart, incredibly driven, and legit machines. Could easily see either of them starting their own firm in the next few years. Both would be able to raise significant capital at launch imo.
Crypto focused picks would be Fred @ Paradigm and Dixon at a16z but I doubt he’ll leave anytime soon considering he they just raised like $10bn.
What makes you think Laster is wicked smart? Rumor was that he's an incompetent asshole but I highly doubt that given his level. Most likely spread by someone jealous of him.
I’ve known him personally for several years. We regularly bounce ideas off each other. I’d like to hear the reasoning behind the incompetent diss (because I think that’s total BS)… He keeps his circle pretty tight (mostly of tier 1 guys) and can be brash if you aren’t in it. So the asshole part is more valid imo.
He's one of the youngest PMs on the street with consistently strong performance
Why Fred at Paradigm? Know a few people at Paradigm. What makes you think it will take off?
Were they wicked smart or were they long tech when tech printed money regularly? How have they done in rising rate environment?
Do you take their word on returns given how much might be private? D1 bullshits investors by saying their public book is -40% while private book is -20%...which doesn't pass the smell test at all.
Don't know these two personally but as a non-tech guy, I'm happy to see tech/beta huggers get taken down a peg.
both. they were wicked smart to have been long tech when tech printed money regularly
Hear you. This wash out is good and I like the pain investors are feeling because it got so insane.. That said, you find me a guy who doesn’t think Gillespie is wicked smart / insanely good investor and I can tell you with certainty that person is a liar or has a complex.
Tech was last decade - going to be macro no ? Especially someone who did well past 3 years.
Edit: I got MS for this, so it is definitely going to not be tech now. People trading hopium with their heart, not their brain
I'm surprised no one mentioned Alex Captain from Cat Rock. The fund is up YTD and has returned 17%+ since its inception
are they really up ytd? that seems tough to believe
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