So, this came up in a discussion today and I thought it would be interesting to get some opinions in this forum.
Given the recent boom in tech IPO's (LNKD, Groupon etc.), when do you guys think facebook will go public? Specifically, if we look at a 10 month horizon, what would you say are the over/under odds of facebook going public in that time?
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Groupon is not public nor are they on file with SEC...
You're right. I meant, given the increasing likelihood of tech IPO's.
Groupon could be valued at almost $25 bil. Kinda ridiculous if you ask me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-17/groupon-is-said-to-discuss-ipo…
Facebook will go public in the next 10 months if they want to capitalize on the favorably treatment of social networking sites. Probability 70%.
P.S. GS is gonna be the lead and probably sole underwriter.
Groupon worth $25 billion?
Is the whole world off their fucking rocker?
ha ha ha ha....my reaction exactly. I don't know where all these valuations are coming from.
Personally though, I don't think fb is going public in the next 10 months. Now that people can short LNKD, I am betting its stock price is going to tank. Zuckerberg already looks reluctant to give up control of his "baby". Once LinkedIn tanks, its going to be difficult to convince him to sell.
its not all up to zuck...he only owns 25%...and to the person that said gs will be sole underwriter, I hope you're joking. If anything, MS has been killing the tech IPO game as of late and I would assume they would be lead left. And also, every BB will be on that cover, it will be interesting to see how the economics work out and who gets good position on the over.
Zuck loves control, but no social media site will ever see these valuations once this bubble pops. If he doesn't IPO in the next year, he will be missing his best opportunity to cash out.
These sites are clearly not "pets.com" overvalued, but I cannot see these multiples as sustainable in the long term. Facebook is probably the best social media site out there, it absolutely dominates the space. But, doesn't everybody who would want a facebook account have one? International expansion aside, I don't know how much growth is left for facebook. Then it comes down to monetization; I am similarly skeptical of how much more Zuck can sell legally obtainable data for.
Really, in determining facebook's growth potential (and therefore valuation) I think we should look at it like Apple. They have historically grown quickly, but will facebook ever see a 100 billion valuation? Facebook > Walmart? I hope not.
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