Fall of IB in Canada
I think every bank is trying to leave Canada. Is this the general sentiment?
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Seems like the monopoly is too strong in Canada. And then the country economic future doesn’t look too promising. Better shot to invest in other places.
RBC is trying to leave. Who is the monopoly?
The big 5 operate as one bank and usually dominates the deal flow and market. So harder for internationals to be invited into deals and compete. RBC isnt trying to leave but its focusing on outside of Canada for growth since the market is maxed out and dying here.
What do you think of Jefferies and Natixis entering Canada?
All I know for now is that Jeffries recently took on most of the Barclays guys.
Anyone have insights on what the comps is at Jeffries? Especially at Associate level.
It doesn't make sense to me that globals have offices here, outside of M&M and maybe energy coverage, especially relatively big presences like Barclays and MS. The size / fee thresholds these firms compete for just isn't consistently prevalent. It works for the big 5 to tie in with lending, cash management, treasury etc. and given they are Canadian and all that.
I just don't see why the globals wouldn't maybe have a super lean coverage team and do execution out of New York given proximity. Hell, maybe even have no presence on the ground and just do coverage out of head office. We do a fair bit of co-advisory with globals and every single time, maybe 1-3 on their side are from the Toronto office and literally everyone else - senior coverage, junior execution, product etc. were all from NY.
If I had to guess, I'd say that although the economy in Canada isn't great for a number of reasons, it is concentrated. Banks might think that if they can get a foothold into a key industry or key family/oligopoly, that'll make it worth the effort
Given the dislocation of the global IB players in Canada this year, which ones do you think will come out on the other side stronger / in a better position than before?
Spoke with some VPs at Independents, the ECM have been slow the past year and most of the deal flow has been through the big 5. Besides cap raises, most independents are struggling to generate revenue through financial advisory.
Slow is an understatement
Was recently interviewing for a LMM boutique and was told deal flow was good, at least in M&A mid-market. How much were they exaggarating?
During downturns satellite offices are usually the easiest targets to cut costs. Its happened before, they'll be back.
Issue is that banking in Canada is located in Toronto.
No one really wants to live or work there anymore. It's basically india 2.0 and not in a good way. Every single Canadian born person I know has either left Toronto for the US or is actively trying to do so. The rent is out of control, entire neighborhoods have been bought out by indians (who jam like 16 people into a 3 bedroom), the downtown nightlife sucks now, and most people they grew up with hightailed it out of there.
With Trudeau trying to bring in millions more immigrants over the next few years its not looking good. Theres no housing for them.
For every person that wants to leave, 5 more are willing to replace them
I think the housing shortage would be easily solved if we just listened to Olivia Chow and opened up our homes to immigrants
Don't forget the solution to solve drug addiction is to hand out taxpayer funded crack pipes
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