Kyle Bass December Investor Letter

Kyle Bass just released his December investor letter. Haven't gotten a chance to read it yet but looks pretty good and it appears the end game, at least in Europe, is near.

Hayman Capital Letter

16 Comments
 

This guy is like the Daddy Bear of all financial Bears. Very pessimistic, but his analysis seems sound and he has been right before.

Man made money, money never made the man
 

Funny how all the "best" hedge fund managers always look at where their trade can go WRONG. So many people try to find the facts that validate their opinion rather than the reverse. It's easy to make something seem logical, its finding its faults that you really test a theory. George Soros, Kyle Bass, etc. seem to take the reverse route, and they seem pretty damn good at it.

 

Great read.

One small portion I didn't quite understand was this "churning" of collateral. I understood why investors are reluctant to put up more collateral thus leading to initiatives for lowering collateral standards. What and how does "churning" relate to this? Is it a way of explaining that the collateral that is normally put up helps generate revenue by being packaged along with securities? Or is it a concept of liquidity (i.e. the grease) which allows security lending?

Sorry, maybe I'm missing something simple here. Good work Jeff

 
solb22Great read.

One small portion I didn't quite understand was this "churning" of collateral. I understood why investors are reluctant to put up more collateral thus leading to initiatives for lowering collateral standards. What and how does "churning" relate to this? Is it a way of explaining that the collateral that is normally put up helps generate revenue by being packaged along with securities? Or is it a concept of liquidity (i.e. the grease) which allows security lending?

Sorry, maybe I'm missing something simple here. Good work Jeff

I believe what he was saying is that when collateral is put up, the party that holds the collateral usually reinvests it in short-term vehicles to earn some spread. They are no longer being allowed to reinvest that collateral while they hold it due to the fear of the collateral disappearing. Basically, nobody trusts each other anymore.

I think "churning" just refers to that collateral earnings spread, could be wrong though

"One should recognize reality even when one doesn't like it, indeed, especially when one doesn't like it." - Charlie Munger
 

i don't trust this guy. i think he's pushing his own agenda. he seems transparently scared about his own portfolio. I hope I'm wrong.

 
chucki don't trust this guy. i think he's pushing his own agenda. he seems transparently scared about his own portfolio. I hope I'm wrong.

Why else would any money manager go on TV and become active in the media?

"One should recognize reality even when one doesn't like it, indeed, especially when one doesn't like it." - Charlie Munger
 

Thanks cplpayne. That is interesting-they reinvest the collateral itself. I assumed that the collateral was a means to bolsters securities lending (collateral there to back/support investment in case it sours). I never realized they actually invest excess collateral. Interesting.

Anyway-why do you think he has his own agenda chuck? Though I will admit I am surprised that his letters to investors are so available to the public.

 
yahooEh seems OK. What is his background? I agree with his stance on European funding issues (both at the banks and sovereign level), but he's definitely missing part of the picture. I also think his JGB CDS position is garbage. He seems like smart guy who can cut through markets well but doesn't understand things as well as he thinks he does.
His background is in FI sales on the street. Worked at Bear for a while before starting his own HF. Obviously then got all famous for shorting subprime.
 
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