Will any non-US IB ever reach the level of Barclays in the US?

Based on the most helpful WSO content, Barclays stands out as a unique case among non-US investment banks due to its strong US franchise, largely built on the Lehman Brothers acquisition. This has allowed Barclays to establish a significant presence in the US market, which is rare for European or other non-US banks.

Among the banks you listed, none currently appear to be in a position to rival Barclays in the US within the next 10 years. Here's why:

1. Santander, RBC, BMO: These banks are primarily focused on their respective home markets (Spain, Canada) and have struggled to scale their US operations effectively. While RBC and BMO have had some success, they remain far from being full-service powerhouses in the US.

2. Deutsche Bank: Deutsche has faced significant challenges, including restructuring and scaling back its US operations. It is unlikely to regain the momentum needed to compete at Barclays' level in the US.

3. BNP, Mizuho, Nomura, MUFG: These banks have also struggled to scale in the US. Regulatory hurdles and competition from dominant US players make it difficult for foreign banks to establish a strong foothold. BNP and MUFG might have some potential, but they are far from achieving Barclays' level of integration and success in the US market.

In summary, Barclays' unique position as a non-US bank with a strong US franchise is unlikely to be replicated by any of the banks listed in the near future. Regulatory challenges, competition, and the need for significant investment in the US market make it difficult for other non-US banks to reach Barclays' level.

Sources: PNC to acquire BBVA's U.S. Operation - A sign of things to come, Investment Banks in 10 years - Ranking, What's up with the European banks and SA 2020? (UBS, DB, Barclays), Non US/Europe IB/PE Overview